Category Archives: gwinnett

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, May, 2013

Monday, 17 June 2013 08:53

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, May, 2013 indicate that there were 350 properties on the market (down from 353 last month). Overall, there was about a 3.8 month supply of properties (down from 4.8 last month). May had 118 sales. Compared to May, 2012 (99), this year was WAY up, but inventory was down compared to 2012 (439). There were 92 sales last month, so this month rocked last. The machine has really cranked up over the last couple of months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 47 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 2.3 month supply (compared to 2.6 months supply last year). This May’s sales were 21 (42 last year, 24 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Last year at this time, there were 118 listings. Sales are being killed by last year’s, but the way the inventory has dropped, there is a pretty good chance that the low inventory is constricting sales.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 194 listings for sale (220 last year, 184 last month), and 3.6 months of supply. Sales in May, 2013 were 71 (54 in April), compared with 43 for the same period in 2012. Sales have rocked for the last few months. I’d like to see it stay up past 50 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still basically in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 56 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 4.9 months (8.5 in April). There were 17 sales in May (11 last month)… up from 11 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 34 sales this year and 31 for the same period last year. This segment had become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 6.0 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 8 sales this month (2 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 13… For the same time last year, the sales were 6. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… we’ll have to see if it holds.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 10 homes listed and 30 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale in March.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 17 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 17 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There was 1 sale in May, but 3 in the Mar-May time frame, 4 the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

What’s Going on in Ruby Forest

Monday, 10 June 2013 09:22

Written by Lane Bailey

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Ruby Forest is a medium-sized subdivision on the northern edge of Suwanee, GA. There are around 400 homes in the development, built primarily between 1993 and 1998… although there were some homes built into the early 2000s. Most of the homes are 4-5 bedrooms, but there are some 3 bedroom homes and some with 6 bedrooms (generally including bedrooms in finished basements).

It is close to George Pierce Park, with access from parts of the subdivision to the walking/biking trails at the back of the park. There are numerous sports fields, in addition to the trail system which connects to the Suwanee Creek Greenway Trail System. It is also only a few minutes from Suwanee Town Center, which hosts all sorts of events, year round.

For sellers in Ruby Forest, things are looking better. Inventory is down. Prices have stabilized. Ruby Forest was hit pretty hard with foreclosures a few years ago. Prices crashed, with homes selling down into the low-mid $100k range. Now they are back into the low-mid $200k range.

As I write this, there is one listing that is pending lender approval (a short sale), that listed at $140k. There is one that is pending sale with a contingent contract (likely the buyers need to sell a home) that was listed at $250k. Finally, there is one listing that is active at $300k.

If you are interested in finding out more, give Lane a call.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, April, 2013

Friday, 07 June 2013 12:05

Written by Lane Bailey

3 Comments

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, April, 2013, indicate that there were 179 properties on the market, down 9 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.5 month supply of properties and 50 properties that closed (sold) in April. It was a slight decrease from last year’s sales (65) and from March (58 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.46 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 108 listings, with about an 2.7 month supply with 38 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were down a little from last month (44), and from last year (51). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 2.68 months of inventory, with a few months of stats getting better, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 62 listings for sale, and about 5.6 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 12 sales compared to 14 last month and 14 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong… We are slightly in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 21 months. There were 0 sales in April. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Mar12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 3 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Foreclosure Wave Broken on the Shore?

Wednesday, 05 June 2013 16:19

Written by Lane Bailey

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For years I have been hearing (and talking about it here) the “wave of foreclosures that are just around the corner”. For years the wave has been just around the corner, over the horizon and getting ready to hit. We did have a tsunami of foreclosures, and Gwinnett County has been one of the worst hit in Georgia, but the second wave has been a phantom…

Foreclosures fall behind retail sales in Gwinnett

And I am about ready to say that it will remain a phantom. That isn’t to say that there won’t be more, but I would like to lay to rest the idea that the banks have a pile of foreclosures that they are “about the release” or that “will hit the streets in the next few months”.

If there was a time, it would be NOW. There is little inventory, prices are starting to strengthen… the time would be ripe.

Instead… we see the first chart.

The green line represents wholesale (foreclosures, short sales, pre-foreclosure sales, etc.). It has dropped over the last few months… as retail (that would be regular sellers) have surged. One not to include here… the red line (new homes) only represents a portion of new home sales. Builders only report “inventory sales” to the MLS. And many of their sales are “pre-sales” (houses purchased before they are built). Some builders are selling 3 or 4 pre-sales for each inventory home. Expect that the red line might actually be 50% higher than it shows…

Prices rebounding in Gwinnett County, GA

To be sure, everything isn’t all wonderful… but it is a load better than a year ago. Right now, actual people that want (or need) to sell their homes have a shot.

The next issue that will start to right itself over the next couple of years regards the people that have been through this wave of foreclosures…

It takes most people 3 years to recover from a foreclosure, short sale, pre-foreclosure, deed-in-lieu or other mortgage shortfall. So, over the last three years, as Gwinnett County has been ravaged by foreclosures and similar issues, thousands of homeowners have been locked out of the market… instead, largely joining the ranks of renters.

That won’t last…

And as they come back into the home market, with the reduced inventories we’re seeing, expect to see continued price strength.

Like I said, it isn’t all wonderful, but we are looking at the beginnings of a Gwinnett recovery. If it follows the Forsyth recovery (they weren’t hit as hard) you can expect to see the market heat up quite a bit through the end of the year as the pent-up demand is released.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, April 2013

Monday, 03 June 2013 11:48

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

Market stats for Norcross GA, April, 2013 indicate that there were 127 properties on the market, down 9 from last month. Overall, there is about a 3.2 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. April saw 44 sales, same as last month, but down compared to the 50 for April last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 65 listings, with about 2.8 month supply. Sales are flat from last month and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (25 v 25 in Mar13 & 37 Apr12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 2.79 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 41 listings for sale, and about 3.6 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 10 sales were up from last year’s 7 sales, but down from last month’s 15 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 17 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 3.4 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. April’s 8 sales were up from the 4 last month and from last year’s 5 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and six months ago it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 9.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. The was 1 sale for Apr13, 0 for Mar13 and 1 for Apr12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in April. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.