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Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00
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Old photo of the estate Hollander Höfe (Höben)...

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Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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How to Read a Market Report…

Monday, 10 October 2011 08:00
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A lot of real estate agents write them.  Some have a lot of information, others… not so much.  Some are well laid out and go past the numbers into interpretation.  Others have plenty of numbers, but they don’t even give any sort of scale to use for reference.

I try to give mine a sense of scale, as well as interpret what the numbers mean.  I also wait to post them… until the numbers are fairly solid (and even a few weeks later, the numbers might change a little bit…), but not so long as to make the report outdated as it is published.  Below is an excerpt from one of my market reports:

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there are 593 properties on the market (down from 612 last month). Overall, there is about an 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.4 last month). August had 83 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (636).  The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

So, let’s break it down.

  • 593 Properties… also showing the number of properties on the market the previous month.  Is it going up or down?  Which way SHOULD it be moving?
  • 7.3 month supply…  This is the Absorption Rate.  Here is a whole post explaining absorption rates, what they are and what they mean.  Balanced, in most real estate segments, is about 6.  Higher is a buyer’s market, lower is a seller’s market.  I also generally show the level of the previous month.
  • 83 sales…  and to put it in perspective, we also want to know how many sales there were last month AND how many for the same month last year.  Sometimes, in slower segments, we might look at the last three months of sales (combined) and compare those with the previous year.  For low volume segments, that will be a number that doesn’t jump all over as much and will give a better idea of market direction and strength.
  • Interpretation & Prediction…  I try to do a little of this for most segments of the market.  I track 7 different postal cities (not the city limits, but the mailing addresses) and each in 6 different price ranges.  That makes for a LOT of predictions and interpretation…  But I try to give what I think of each one… assuming there is enough data to get an idea of what is going on.
  • Something graphical…  My newest tool is a graphical representation (from Zillow) showing a history of the region.  Even more than the pinpoint data of the report, the simple graph gives the aerial view of what is happening.  However, it needs to be kept in perspective…  The beginnings of trend are pretty hard to spot on a long-term graph.

Hopefully this will help you get the most from my market reports…

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Friday, 30 September 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Buford, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there were 534 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.4 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 75 sales for August, down slightly from 77 last month and up significantly from 57 from last August (2010).In the sub-$200k arena, there were 284 listings, with a 4.6 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were down slightly from last month (56 v 61), but impressively strong compared to last year (35 sales in August, 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is quite strong.  And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 179 listings for sale, and about  9.6 months of supply.  The 17 sales recorded were slightly above the 14 from last month, but right on the 17 sales last year for August.  As strong as the Under $200k segment is, this one is MUCH weaker.  It is one of the weaker areas in the county for this price.  Of course, last September, the A/R was almost twice as high.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 23 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There has been 6 sales in the last 3 months (2 sales for August, 1 for July, 3 for June).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one has been extremely weak.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings.  Absorption Rate is 15 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 5 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was last month.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 11 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  Listings are up, but sales aren’t following, though.

Above $1m, there were 9 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June.  FINALLY, new sales!  So, we have 13.5 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2011

Friday, 05 August 2011 08:00
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DSCN0593

Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

Market stats for Buford, GA, June, 2011 indicate that there were 603 properties on the market (584 last month). Overall, there was about an 7.4 month supply of properties (8.3 last month).  There were 97 sales for April, up slightly from 75 last month and 83 from last June (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 312 listings (313 last month), with a 5.4 month supply (6.1 for May).  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were up from last month (67 v 54), and quite strong compared to last year (48 sales in June, 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is quite strong.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 224 listings for sale (213 for May), and about  10.5 months of supply (12.1 last month).  The 25 sales recorded were significantly above the 17 from last month, but well down from the 32 sales last year for June.  It is a mid-pack price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  Of course, if there were another big bump next month…

From $400k to $600k, there were 41 homes on the market (36 last month). The absorption rate is almost 24.6 Months (54 last month).  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There has been 5 sales in the last 3 months (3 sales for June, 2 for May).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one has been weak.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings (4 listings in May).  Absorption Rate is 15 months (6 months measured last month)… it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 4 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was last month.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 11 homes listed (up 4 from May). And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until last December (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 10 properties listed (down 1 from May).  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June.  FINALLY, new sales!

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… GEHC… Again.

Wednesday, 03 August 2011 08:00
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Has it really been 3 years?  Yes, Yes it has (Phineas & Ferb fan?).

I wrote my first post about the Gwinnett Environmental & Heritage Center on August 2nd, 2008.  Back then, I lived 45 minutes away, but enjoyed visiting with my sons.  Now, I live 10 minutes away… and my boys are both big enough to enjoy the visits.  The older one (at 7) is an “expert” on the Water Room, while the younger one (at 3) just loves to run around on the trails and see if he can spot any wildlife.

It is a cool venue in several respects.  To begin with, the building is extremely environmentally friendly.  It is Gwinnett County’s first Gold LEED Certified building.  The trails are nice and offer a variety of challenges.  For more about GEHC, take a look at the old post.

There are a lot of recreational opportunities, both for kids and adults.

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