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Duluth, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 05 December 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, September, 2011 indicated that there were 444 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.2 month supply of properties.  Sales in September were 62, slightly up from 60 a year earlier.  But, sales were slightly down compared to the prior month (66).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much in October.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 167 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.6 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for September were up sharply this year v last year (44 v 35), but down compared to September, 2010 (46).   The Absorption Rate (A/R) is rocking most of the county… but sales have decelerated ever so slightly.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 123 listings for sale, and about 8.2 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were slightly down compared to October, 2010 (12v 14) and flat compared to last month.  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is only doing average…

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 14.7 months. October brought in 3 sales. There were 3 last year and 2 last month. As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here. Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, and seemingly getting weaker.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 43 listings, with about 11.7 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for October… 6 for October last year.  Month to month sales were flat (3 v 3).  After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, but it has weakened some this month.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 24 homes listed and approximately 72 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sale recorded for October was beaten by last year’s 1 and flat the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 0 sales for the last two months have killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t

Above $1m, there were 38 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates… There were 6 sales in the Aug-Oct period this year, and 7 for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 24 October 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, September, 2011 indicated that there were 488 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.4 month supply of properties.  Sales in September were 66, Well up from 38 a year earlier.  But, sales weredown compared to the prior month (86).  Duluth has been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 186 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for September were up sharply this year v last year (46 v 13), but down compared to August, 2011 (51).  This is much better than Gwinnett county as a whole.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 137 listings for sale, and about 7.2 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were way down compared to September, 2010 (12v 9).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is doing better than average…

From $400k to $600k, there were 59 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 11.8 months.  September brought in 2 sales.  There were 13 last year and 5 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, and seemingly getting weaker.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 44 listings, with about 9.3 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for September… 0 for September last year.  Month to month sales slid (3 v 5).  After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, and it has strengthened some this month.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 17.3 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sale recorded for September was tied by last year’s 0 and behind the 1 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but declining inventories had made the market look stronger until this month.

Above $1m, there were 39 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 13 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 9 sales in the Jul-Sep period this year, and the same for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00
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Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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How to Read a Market Report…

Monday, 10 October 2011 08:00
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A lot of real estate agents write them.  Some have a lot of information, others… not so much.  Some are well laid out and go past the numbers into interpretation.  Others have plenty of numbers, but they don’t even give any sort of scale to use for reference.

I try to give mine a sense of scale, as well as interpret what the numbers mean.  I also wait to post them… until the numbers are fairly solid (and even a few weeks later, the numbers might change a little bit…), but not so long as to make the report outdated as it is published.  Below is an excerpt from one of my market reports:

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there are 593 properties on the market (down from 612 last month). Overall, there is about an 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.4 last month). August had 83 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (636).  The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

So, let’s break it down.

  • 593 Properties… also showing the number of properties on the market the previous month.  Is it going up or down?  Which way SHOULD it be moving?
  • 7.3 month supply…  This is the Absorption Rate.  Here is a whole post explaining absorption rates, what they are and what they mean.  Balanced, in most real estate segments, is about 6.  Higher is a buyer’s market, lower is a seller’s market.  I also generally show the level of the previous month.
  • 83 sales…  and to put it in perspective, we also want to know how many sales there were last month AND how many for the same month last year.  Sometimes, in slower segments, we might look at the last three months of sales (combined) and compare those with the previous year.  For low volume segments, that will be a number that doesn’t jump all over as much and will give a better idea of market direction and strength.
  • Interpretation & Prediction…  I try to do a little of this for most segments of the market.  I track 7 different postal cities (not the city limits, but the mailing addresses) and each in 6 different price ranges.  That makes for a LOT of predictions and interpretation…  But I try to give what I think of each one… assuming there is enough data to get an idea of what is going on.
  • Something graphical…  My newest tool is a graphical representation (from Zillow) showing a history of the region.  Even more than the pinpoint data of the report, the simple graph gives the aerial view of what is happening.  However, it needs to be kept in perspective…  The beginnings of trend are pretty hard to spot on a long-term graph.

Hopefully this will help you get the most from my market reports…

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Monday, 19 September 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, August, 2011 indicated that there were 514 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.9 month supply of properties.  Sales in August were 86, compared to 71 a year earlier.  Sales were dwell up compared to both the prior year and the prior month.  Duluth is slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole.In the Under $200k arena, there were 211 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 5.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for August were up sharply this year v last year (51 v 28), and compared to July, 2011 (33).  This is slightly better than Gwinnett county as a whole.
Between $200k and $400k, there are 134 listings for sale, and about 6.9 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were way down compared to August, 2010 (21 v 25).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is doing pretty well…

From $400k to $600k, there were 53 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 10.6 months.  August brought in 5 sales.  There were 6 last year and 8 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 47 listings, with about 12.8 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for August… 6 for August last year.  Month to month sales slid (5 v 8).  After June’s performance (0 sales), I hadn’t been holding out that much hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, but it still isn’t great.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 22 homes listed and approximately 13.2 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for August was dwarfed by last year’s 3 and by the 3 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but declining inventories have made the market look stronger.

Above $1m, there were 47 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 15.7 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 9 sales in the Jun-Aug period this year, and the same for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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