I have recieved emails this morning from the NAR and from my local association regarding the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  There is a full court press from the National Association of Realtors as well as the local associations to not only continue, but expand this program.  And there is NO doubt that the program has been effective, especially in the last few weeks.  Entry level home sales are up.

But, honestly… it needs to end as scheduled.

But it is helping my business…

I can hear some of my real estate agent friends saying that very thing.  That is the basis of why the NAR wants to continue the program…  But, we really need to examine the long term implications of what we are doing.  NOT paying attention to the long term implications of current actions are what made this problem to begin with…

Whether you think that the bubble was caused by the Community Reinvestment Act, Fannie and Freddie pushing for lower and lower barrier to home ownership, out of control credit markets or even just people buying more home than they could afford… thinking that they could always bail out for more money… it is obvious that nobody had their eyes on the future.

And there is an solid fact… the market is going to find its bottom, and then begin recovery. No matter how the government intervenes, the market HAS to find a REAL bottom… a place where people look at their situation, and see that homes look like a deal and they feel like it is time to jump.

Many think that the initial $8,000 FTHBTC short circuited the process and gave the market a bottom.  But, there are some economists that think the bottom was happening anyway… others think that prices may go down after the tax credit expires.

If prices may go down when the tax credit expires… we need to keep it!

Newsflash.  If we aren’t at the bottom, and prossibly even if we were, prices will likely go down when the tax credit expires.  Demand has been juiced in the last few weeks because of the immediacy of the tax credit expiring.  That has eaten a little of the supply and buoyed prices.  If the Tax Credit is extended, the immediacy goes away and demand will slacken again. If the tax credit goes away, the demand will still slacken.  The difference is that our children and grandchildren won’t be left with yet another bill from the government.

But, what happens when the demand weakens and prices start to drop?  Gee… I don’t know…  what happens when the store runs a sale and you can get that flat screen you’ve been looking at for the last 3 months?  If you have a little money saved up, you go buy it.  That is the market working.

Prices will drop, and people will buy properties that seem like good deals to them.  A few buyers in the market will see properties that they have been eying getting snapped up before they respond… and the market will start its recovery.

The Home Buyer Tax Credit is a stalling tactic…

That’s all.  It doesn’t create recovery, it spurs demand from the people that were on the fence… but we need a constant stream of people coming OVER the fence.  The ONLY way to do that is to make people comfortable with their jobs and with the family finances.  The economy needs to begin recovery for that.  Adding more deficit spending isn’t going to do that…  That actually hurts, because it places a restriction on credit availability… subject for a different blog post…

The bottom line is that housing has to recovery naturally.  Yes, real estate agents have been helped by the program, but it is our kids that will get the bill for that help.  We need to call a stop to this before it gets more out of hand.

originally posted to GwinnettGarageGuy, another of Lane’s blogs

Tags: business of real estate, buyers, client protection, financial crisis, honesty, investment, news, sellers  |  Posted under all posts, business of real estate, buyers, client protection, investment, news, real estate, sellers  |    View Comments

Maybe…  Maybe not…

Make no mistake, there are some deals in the market.  And combined with the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit (FTHBTC), this can be a great time to buy a first home.  Interest rates have remained low… despite a LOT of predictions to the contrary.  In fact, with a projected deficit THIS year of $1.8T for the federal government, there is still an expectation that rates will have to rise because of the pressure on the available investors.

In fact, that would be the case laid out by those that say THIS is the time.  The FTHBTC is coming to a close on December 1st.  And while that is almost two months away, in the world of home search and financing, two months can go by pretty quickly.

On the other hand…

There are some points that would suggest that for some buyers, waiting a little longer might be just the ticket.  In fact, waiting until AFTER the FTHBTC expires could be a better move for many buyers.

Just as with the Cash for Clunkers program, the tax credit is pushing some buyers into the market that might not have jumped in otherwise.  And we have seen upward pressure on prices for entry level homes.  Buyers, in some cases, are bidding up the prices for some homes.

By waiting until many of the buyers have abandoned the market… after the tax credit expires… there is a belief that prices may drop.  Some think that the drops may be more significant than just the $8000.  They feel that sellers may become quite lonely by January, and may be willing to offer better deals on their homes.

Others have also speculated that there might be a new program from the government to replace the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  There are plans to offer a $15,000 tax credit, as well as to continue the current offering.  Nobody knows if these plans will come to fruition.

What does it all mean?

For “First Time Buyers” with solid cash resources, waiting may be a better plan.  For those that would be better off paying a little more, but getting the $8000 in a few months, getting on the ball and buying a home soon could be a better way to go.

Don’t forget, “First Time Buyers” are those that haven’t owned a house in the last 36 months.  The credit is for 10% of the purchase price, up to a credit up $8000.  In GA, there is an additional credit of up to $1800 that may be available… even for those that aren’t first time buyers.

If you are looking for a home around Lilburn, GA, give me a call and I can help guide you through the process.

from GwinnettGarageGuy.com

Tags: business of real estate, buyers, deals, gwinnett, honesty, investment, lilburn, news  |  Posted under all posts, business of real estate, buyers, gwinnett, honesty, investment, lilburn, real estate  |    View Comments

I’ve seen an annoying new trend.  Buyer and Seller “Broker Fees”.  It may go by various names, but amounts to the same thing…  what Clark Howard would call a Junk Fee.

Entrance to Baltimore

These are quite different from the other fees that may be involved in a real estate transaction, and there are a LOT of fees.  The lenders have fees, the closing attorney has fees, there are state fees, county fees, insurance fees, delivery fees…  Simply put, buyers and sellers are paying plenty of fees.  Adding some BS junk fee like a paperwork fee, transaction fee, administrative fee or broker fee is just adding insult to injury.

There is already a commission or sales fee that the real estate broker and agent are sharing.  There is no reason to add another official sounding fee on top of this that is after the negotiated amounts.

And, that is how it usually works… the seller negotiates the fee for selling their home, and everyone shakes hands… and then the agent mentions that there is a $495 paperwork fee or something along those lines.  They say it is required… maybe not saying that they are the ones requiring it…

In the case of buyers, after going through the buyer’s agency agreement and telling the buyer that the commission is generally paid by the seller, they hit the buyer up for a transaction fee… again, saying it is a requirement.

There are various reasons for this…  What it mostly comes down to is that people and companies in the real estate industry are hurting for income.  But, many of our clients aren’t exactly rolling in money… and even if they were, it isn’t right to tack on junk just because we think we can… Some agents are working for companies that charge US a closing fee for closing a transaction instead of charging a split and the agents are passing it along.  It should be part of their cost of doing business.

I just say NO!

No additional fees.  You will know EXACTLY what you are paying for my services prior to delivery and prior to completing the negotiations.  I try to deliver more for EVERY client than other agents… but that doesn’t mean I need to add junk fees on top of fair fee structure.

And there are some different options available for sellers… but that is another post.

Tags: business of real estate, buyers, deals, ethics, honesty, sellers  |  Posted under all posts, business of real estate, buyers, ethics, honesty, real estate, sellers  |    View Comments

I know… most sellers at some point take a look at the ‘Zestimate’ that Zillow produces for their property.  And there is almost always one of two reactions…

• “Those people are on crack, my house is worth way more than that” (if the Zestimate is lower than expected)
• “Wow, I didn’t know it was worth THAT much… Cool” (if the Zestimate comes in higher than expected)

The bottom line is that if it is low, it must be wrong, and if it is high, then it must be right.  It is pretty rare for someone to see a low valuation and think it could be right, or see a high valuation and think it could be wrong…

But let me tell you a truism… the Zestimate is wrong.  Blanket statement.  It could be high.  It could be low.  It isn’t dead on.

Here are the current levels of accuracy for the Atlanta Statistical Area…

Within 5% of the true value, 25% of the time.
Within 10% of the true value, 45% of the time.
Within 20% of the true value, 66% of the time.
Median error, 11.6%.

This is lifted straight from Zillow’s accuracy.  For the Atlanta MSA, you are within 5% once out of 4 times… So, are you telling people that the just gave them a $400,000 valuation, and they have a 25% chance of the house being worth $380k – $420k?  And a 10% chance of it being worth either $$360k – $380k or $420k – $440k?  Or that there is a 10.5% chance of it being worth either $320k – $360k or $440k – $480k?  Or a 34% chance that it is worth less than $320k or more than $480k?

Maybe you will let them know that about half of the time your $400,000 valuation is worth $446,400 or $353,600… since the median error is 11.6%

The thing is that the Zestimate could rise or fall by a significant percentage and still be within the range of error..

So, the thing is that 75% of the time, Zestimates are off by more than 5%.

Now, I am not going to argue with Zillow’s national or regional data.  It is likely to be much closer than the data for a specific property.  The folks there argue (and I can’t refute them in any way) that Zestimates are as likely to be high as low and therefore cancel each other out and that for larger samples, they are quite accurate.

in fact, everyone that gives you an estimate of market value is doing exactly that… giving you an estimate of market value.  Market value can’t be determined until there is a buyer…  That was the previous post…

Tags: business of real estate, buyers, honesty, investment, market report, news, sellers  |  Posted under all posts, business of real estate, buyers, honesty, investment, market report, real estate, sellers  |    View Comments