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Author Archives: Lane Bailey

5 Keys To Finding THE Deal…

Monday, 09 April 2012 08:00
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I can’t think of a buyer I’ve talked with in the last couple of years that has not been looking for “a deal”.  Of course, the definition changes for each individual, but there is always a “deal” component.

New development near Drumrooske Pristine and r...

New development near Drumrooske Pristine and ready to be occupied, but there is no rush of buyers in the current financial climate. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There are a few keys that go into getting that deal, though…

  • Be READY.  Not just ready, but READY.  The first key to getting a good deal is to be ready to jump on it when it appears.  I have watched some great properties at excellent prices hit the market and get multiple offers on the same day.  Despite the idea that persists among buyers that this is a “Buyer’s Market“, if you are looking at properties under about $300k (depending on area and neighborhood), it isn’t.  That is borne out by the Market Reports, too.
  • Have your financing lined up.  I can’t stress enough that buyers need to pre-qualify.  Not a weak, “chat on the phone” for a minute kind of pre-qual, but a “pull credit reports and let the lender know EXACTLY what is going on” pre-qual.  Some lenders may refer to it as a pre-approval.
  • Be “In the Know”.  Sign up to get listings delivered every day.  If you don’t jump fast, the best properties will be gone.  When the property that meets your needs and desires hits the market, you want to know.  It doesn’t matter how approved you are if you don’t know the properties that are hitting the market.
  • Along the same line, being in the know means looking at property in order to recognize the deal when you see it.  There really isn’t a substitution for getting into properties and seeing what they look like, smell like and how they flow.  Pictures help… lots of pictures help more… but that isn’t a replacement for seeing some properties.  It also helps with the mental frame of mind to be prepared to make an offer.  If you have seen several properties, you may be less likely to wonder if the next property is going to be just a little better.
  • Avoid “Analysis Paralysis”.  Look at the deal.  Be ready when you recognize a good deal.  Make sure you are comfortable.  Pull the trigger.  I’ve watched a lot of buyers lose the house that they really loved because they wanted to think about it for just a couple more days.  It might still be there… or it might not.  The better the deal, the less likely it is to stick around.

Failing all of that, there is another thing which goes a long way toward getting a deal.  Don’t care about the house…  That is why investors get such great deals.  They offer and then move on.  If they get it, cool.  If not, still cool.  It isn’t about the house… it is about the deal.  Of course, they don’t actually live in the houses they are buying like that.

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Gwinnett Market Impressions…

Friday, 06 April 2012 08:00
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrenceville GA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I won’t have the March sales figures for Gwinnett County for a few more days, but I do have a few thoughts on what I have seen from the Listing numbers I pulled down on the 1st of April.

Listings are down.  And that is weird.  VERY weird.  Not just down year over year… that isn’t weird at all.  But they are actually down from month to month.  And in this market, that doesn’t happen (although I can’t really say that now… because it just happened).  Looking back over the last few years, listings tended to bottom out in January… March would be up over February, April over March.  We’ve been going down for the last two months instead.

Of course, I still hear the media and a LOT of other real estate agents telling me about the “coming wave of foreclosures” just waiting for the banks to decide that they should release them.  If they had the “shadow inventory” everyone is talking about, they would be releasing it.  For this market, there wouldn’t be a better time.  Listings are down and this is when sales are generally moving up.

Looking back at the last year only confirms this.  We’ve seen Absorption Rates under 6 months in most of the segments with the dropping inventories.  (Translation: This isn’t a shocker…).

What does all of this mean?

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County
Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think we are seeing a bottom for some segments… specifically homes priced under $200,000 to $400,000 (I don’t know exactly where the line is… but homes under $200k are solid right now… homes over $400k are looking pretty shaky still).  Could prices erode further? Absolutely.  But I think that without a change for the worse in the economy, we are probably at the bottom of those properties here in Gwinnett County.  The higher price ranges might be bottoming or might not… but I have a lot less certainty over $400k.

There is actual competition for properties at the entry level.  Multiple offers and homes selling over list price.  The homes that are priced “right” are getting snapped up.  Over-priced houses are still languishing on the market, though.  But a couple of years ago, there was hardly a “priced right”.

 

Now we just need to get the higher priced segments moving again…

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Let’s Talk Garages…

Wednesday, 04 April 2012 08:00
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Making a cool garage is pretty easy… there are only a few steps to take, and most of them aren’t that expensive… unless you are shooting for a display case for your cars.  Those can get pretty pricey.
Watch the video and let me know what you think.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 02 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Norcross GA, February, 2012 indicate that there were 260 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.6 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April, 2011 was below 2010)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  February saw 48 sales, ever so slightly below the 43 for February, 2011, and well under the 40 for January.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 139 listings, with about 3.5 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (42 v 32 in Feb11 & 33 Jan12).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At just under a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 83 listings for sale, and about 17.8 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 4 sales were well off compared to last year’s 7 sales, and down from last month’s 6 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  We really need a strong March for this segment to look good.  Right now it is among the weakest in the county.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 22.5 months. The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January. February’s 1 sale was flat with 1 from the month before and from last year’s 4 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February only had 1 sale.  Of course, that is better than the 0 last February. 

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Friday, 30 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2012 indicated that there were 449 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.8 month supply of properties. Sales in January were 30, slightly down from 40 a year earlier. But, sales were way down compared to the prior month (57). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 180 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 7.1 month supply. The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55. Sales in January were down this year v last year (13 v 23), and way down compared to last month (35). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county… but it has decelerated again this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 131 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving mostly the wrong way (up) since August. Sales were up compared to January, 2011 (10 v 7) but down compared to last month (14). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 8.1 months. January brought in 4 sales. There were 6 last year and 5 last month. As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here. Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 9.9 months of supply. Sales were 3 for January… 4 for January last year. Month to month sales were actually up (3 v 2). Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market. The 0 sales recorded for January was flat with last year’s 0 and from the 0 from last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R. It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 36 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 54 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 2 sales in the Nov-Jan period this year, and 3 for the same time last year. Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 0 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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