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Author Archives: Lane Bailey

Wayback Wednesday… A Gift That KEEPS On Giving…

Pile of gorgeous gifts

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This is the time of year when everyone is thinking about gifts.  Some are buying, others are thinking about what they might be getting.  Some may be doing some of both.  There are lots of types of gifts.  The first thing that many of us default to are the big screen TVs, hi-po car parts and video games… maybe even some socks and underwear.  Most of us don’t think about gifts to our community.

But those can be some of the best gifts…  and we can give them for almost free.

I have been volunteering for Junior Achievement for the last few years.  It is incredibly rewarding walking into a classroom and getting the AMAZING reaction from the kids.  They are so ready for a “new” adult to come and talk to them about business and economics.  Seriously.  Actually, they are ready for someone to talk to them about almost anything.  But I can tell you that they REALLY want to learn, engage, share and grow.

Getting more volunteers for JA would be a great thing, but honestly, there are a lot of opportunities to gift that kind of gift to the community.  Scouting is another great option (I’m involved with that, as well…).  There are local community centers, senior centers, parks… there are a LOT of ways that you can give something to the community.

Many of those opportunities magnify that gift… kind of like a corporate match, but in effect rather than cash.  As an example, for the two volunteer programs that I dedicate most of my time to, JA and Scouting, have the added value of making a real impact in the lives of kids.  JA plants the seeds of entrepreneurship in youngsters, while Scouting fosters leadership and responsibility.  Both of those things are long term gifts to the community that pay back MUCH more than the meager investment we adults make in the kids.

Last year I wrote a little about my experience with JA.  Check it out.  Find your local chapter.  Or get involved with Scouting (Boy, Girl, Venturing, etc.).  You don’t have to have a kid in the Troop, Pack or Crew… just a desire to make a positive impact and have a great time doing it.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, October 2011

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Market stats for Norcross GA, October, 2011 indicate that there were 288 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 4.9 month supply of properties.  This year has been very strong so far… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much.  September saw 58 sales, above the 48 for September but well above the 42 for last October.  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post six strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 165 listings, with about 3.7 month supply.  Sales are up from both last month and a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (46 v 36 both in Oct10 & Sept11).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 86 listings for sale, and about 8.3 months of supply.  This segment isn’t as weak as it had been over the last several months, and is continuing to build strength.  The 9 sales were solidly up compared to last year’s 4 sales, but down from last month’s 10 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.

From $400k to $600k, there were 29 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 9.7 months. The AR had been dropping for months, then shot WAY up in June. It has been working down slowly since. October’s 3 sales are up from 2 the month before and last year’s 1 sale… and the inventory decrease didn’t hurt too much, either.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market. Inventories had decreased compared to last year. The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another each in May and June, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to 18 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011

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Market stats for Buford, GA, October, 2011 indicate that there were 497 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 6.5 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 77 sales for October, down slightly from 79 last month and up a good bit from 60 from last October (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 279 listings, with a 5.2 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were down slightly from last month (51 v 55), but impressively strong compared to last year (37 sales in October, 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is reasonably strong.  And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 167 listings for sale, and about 8.6 months of supply. The 23 sales recorded were slightly above the 18 from last month and dead on the 23 sales last year for October.  This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically… now it is unremarkable.  In this case, that is a HUGE improvement.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 8.2 Months.  There have been 11 sales in the last 3 months (3 sales for October, 6 sales for September, 2 for August).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  Last month was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up this month I was looking for…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings. Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 4 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was two months ago.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed.  And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously trends are hardly definable.  Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 8 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June.  FINALLY, new sales! So, we have 16 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2011

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2011 indicates that there are 169 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 5.0 month supply. There were 18 sales, compared to 27 last month and 20 last October. The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 118 listings, with about 4.8 months supply. There were 18 sales this October, slightly more than last year for the same time (17). Last month there were 25 sales. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month was a big drop.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 44 listings for sale, and about 33 months of supply.  Last October there was an 14.8 month supply.  Last October there were 17 sales, this year there were 0.  Last month also had 2.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months, but with 4 sales since last October, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. There were only 3 sales in this segment last year. In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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