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Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2013

Monday, 15 April 2013 11:51
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Lilburn, GA, February, 2013, indicate that there were 183 properties on the market, down 24 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.9 month supply of properties and 47 properties that closed (sold) in JFebruary. It was a slight increase from last year’s sales (43) and from January (45 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.87 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market. And it is one of a very few that got better in February.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 119 listings, with about an 3.2 month supply with 39 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were up a little from last month (36), and from last year (also 36). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 3.16 months of inventory, with a few months of stats getting better, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 54 listings for sale, and about 6.0 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 7 sales compared to 9 last month and 7 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong… We are in Balanced Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 10.5 months. There was 1 sale in February. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 3 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2013

Friday, 12 April 2013 09:38
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Norcross GA, February, 2013 indicate that there were 143 properties on the market, up 5 from last month. Overall, there is about a 4.1 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. February saw 32 sales, on par compared to the 36 for January, but down compared to the 48 for February last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 73 listings, with about 3.1 month supply. Sales are down from last month and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (20 v 28 in Jan13 & 42 Feb12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 3 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 43 listings for sale, and about 4.6 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 9 sales were up from last year’s 4 sales, and a little above last month’s 8 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 23 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 11.5 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. February’s 3 sales were up from the 0 last month and from last year’s 1 sale. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and four months ago it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 18.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  The were 0 sales for Feb13, 0 for Jan13 and 1 for Feb12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in February. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buy New? Resale? Renovations?

Wednesday, 10 April 2013 10:05
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As a buyer, it is a tough choice.  New construction in South Forsyth and North Gwinnett are ramping up at an amazing pace.  All of the “PVC farms” that were left in the wake of the crash a few years ago are either already holding homes, or on the way to it.  Builders are pushing crews, and they still have a hard time holding standing inventory.

Interest rates are incredible.  Prices are affordable.

But inventory is problematic.

What is a buyer to do?  A couple of years ago, there were likely scores of homes that met your basic requirements.  Looking at 4 car garage homes, in Gwinnett, just a couple of years ago there were probably 30 at any given time between $200k and $400k.  Today there are just a handful.

First… if you are serious, don’t make the mistake of waiting if you really like the house.  If it is reasonably priced, it WILL sell and it won’t take long.

But each of these segments has pros and cons.

New Homes…

Tagum City Mayor Rey T. Uy signing the contrac...

They have that new home smell…  and a warranty… and since you likely aren’t buying standing inventory, you can specify finishes and colors and floorplans.  That rocks.  But, you WILL pay for every one of those upgrades.  Even if the builder is offering “$25,000 in free upgrades”, they ARE built into the cost of the home.

That doesn’t mean it won’t be worth it.  It might be the best option.  It is easy.  Make your selections and let it happen.  Of course, the drawback is that you aren’t in control.  You have to wait until it is done.  That could be a few weeks or a few months.  And builder contracts are often stacked so that you can’t push on them if they fail to meet deadlines.  Some aren’t… but many are.  There might also be other hidden gems in the contract that prevent you from getting exactly what you want.  Most of the time it works out, but there is that small percentage where the buyer gets bit.

Resales…

What you buy is what you get…  And that is also a knife that cuts both ways.  On one hand, it is pretty obvious what you are getting.  You can walk around the actual floor plan, with the “options” already in place.  You can see the colors in their natural habitat and feel the finishes.  And there might be more room to negotiate with an individual seller vs a builder.  The builder doesn’t want to cut the price on YOUR home because that will show up in the public records… compromising his future negotiating position for that community.

Logo of the National Association of Realtors.

However, you CAN get a warranty.  It won’t be a 15 year structure warranty, but for under $500, you can get a good warranty for the first year of ownership.  And you are probably saving some cash compared to buying the new home.  Don’t forget, if the home is in a subdivision that is built out, you know EXACTLY what you are getting as far as the neighborhood goes.

The Purchase Contracts are generally better, too.  If you are working with a REALTOR®, they should be using state “association contracts”.  I use the contracts generated by the Georgia Association of REALTORS®.  Non-member licensees don’t have access to those contracts unless they pay a licensing fee.  And the non-member contracts are just not on the same standard.  The exception to this is Foreclosures… they generally have an amendment that kills most of the protections in the base contract.  In exchange, you should be getting a better deal on the property for that risk…

Recent Renovations…

Montage of Atlanta images. From top to bottom ...

These are kind of a mix between the other two…  In many ways, they have the best of both worlds, except that there are going to be fewer variable to adjust.  Walls probably aren’t moving even if the work hasn’t been started yet, and if it is “done” then it might as well be a resale… you probably won’t be getting the finishes changed.

But, while most of what you see and touch will be new or refinished, the price will often be less than a comparable new home.  You can still get the 1 year warranty.  The builder doing the conversion MAY stand behind the work they have done.  Appliances and systems MAY also have longer warranties as well.

And Finally…

Buying a house ready for a renovation isn’t a bad idea, either.  If there isn’t a home that suits YOUR needs, buying one that is ready for a work-over, and then arranging that, may be a great plan.  If there IS a house that meets your needs, it will probably be a better plan, but often, that just isn’t the reality… especially now with the decreased inventories on the market.

If you are in the Atlanta area and would like to know more, give me a shout.  If you are outside of the Atlanta area, I still might know a good local agent that could help you out with their local expertise.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, February 2013

Monday, 08 April 2013 11:17
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, February, 2013 indicated that there were 287 properties on the market, up 15 from last month. Overall, there was about a 6.0 month supply of properties. Sales in February were 40, down from 65 a year earlier. Sales were also down compared to the prior month (45). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months.  It is right in the Balanced Market zone.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 86 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last February, was 5.6. Sales were WAY down this year v last year (20 v 45), but flat compared to last month (20). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 82 listings for sale, and about 5.1 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to February, 2012 (15 v 8) but down compared to last month (16). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a slight Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 34 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 6.8 months. February brought in 2 sales. There were 8 last year and 4 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Usually we see the A/R soften as we move up in price, but that isn’t happening here. We are now slightly to the Buyer’s Market side.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 30 listings, with about 15 months of supply. Sales were 1 for February… 1 for last year. And month to month sales were down (1 v 3). I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it has been looking better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level. But not the last few months…

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 16 homes listed and approximately 24 months of inventory on the market. The 1 sale for February was not better than the 2 last year or the 1 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 2 sales for the last 3 months was the same as the same 3 months from last year (2 sale). And a year ago the A/R was 36 months.

Above $1m, there were 39 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 29 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 4 sales in the Dev-Feb period this year, and 2 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but barely had a start with it this month with 1 sale. There was 1 sale last year and there was 1 for January.

 

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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To Renovate or Not to Renovate?

Wednesday, 03 April 2013 10:25
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That is always a question…

And like most questions, there are two polar opposite answers that leave little room for anything but personal  interpretation.

Don’t Do It…

The White House renovation

The White House renovation (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It is a pretty easy case to make.  The bottom line is that there are few, if any, renovations that you can do that will increase the value of your home.  About the best you can do is get back around 75-80% of the money spent on the renovations.  Of course, that is assuming that you are paying someone to do the job, not doing it yourself…

Looking at Remodeling Magazines annual statistics, there are a couple of standouts, but few things will get back that much of your money at sale time.  Link

So, renovating prior to selling your home prior to sale is really only a way to burn cash that you could plow into a new home…

Not So Fast…

There IS one thing about renovating that does make sense.  Competition.  Aside from needing to compete for buyers with the house up the street, you need to compete with new construction… now more than at any time over the last few years.  Here in the Atlanta suburbs, builders are going NUTS.  They are barely able to keep up with the demand, and standing inventory is hard to find.

In order to effectively compete, YOUR house needs to look its best.  Those renovation may just pay back in a quick sale.  And that might be worth a little lost money…

My Opinion?

Coraopolis Railroad Station

Coraopolis Railroad Station (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Don’t go nuts…  Price fixes everything, and you may not have to take the same kind of hit on price as the renovation might take.  Doing a $100k major upscale kitchen remodel probably would be overkill.  Putting up a fresh coat of paint, however, DOES make a lot of sense.

Do NOT forget that your time IS valuable.  That is one issue that I often see.  People remember that the paint will cost $200, but forget that they are going to be spending 20 hours applying it.  If you are going to renovate, don’t discount the value of your time to $0.  Sure, you might not need to value your weekend labor at $100/hr, which some contractors WILL charge, but give it some value.  Weigh that into your decision.

Next week we’ll be looking at it from the buyer’s perspective…

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