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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, May 2012

Friday, 22 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , May, 2012 indicates that there are 143 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.1 month supply.  There were 39 sales, compared to 32 last month and 43 last May.  Of course, last May, there were 238 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 97 listings, with about 3.5 months supply.  There were 34 sales this May, slightly worse than last year for the same time (39).  There were 25 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  This time of years we often see a slight decrease in listings… but we are already very low.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 42 listings for sale, and about 10.5 months of supply.  Last May there was an 12.8 month supply.  There were 4 sales, this year there were also 4.  Last month had 7 sales.  It makes the last couple of months look more like flukes.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 3 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was around 9 months, but with 1 sale this month (and that being the only sale since November), it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2012

Wednesday, 20 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, May, 2012, indicate that there were 306 properties on the market (as of May 31st).  Overall, there was about an 5.0 month supply of properties and 68 properties that closed (sold) in May.  It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (54) and an increase from April (65 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a good bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 4.99 months of inventory, it is downright strong now.  Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 212 listings, with about an 4.2 month supply with 59 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales increased a bit from last month (51), and were also up from last year (41).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  At 4.2 months of inventory, I’d say with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 82 listings for sale, and about 8.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  It is stalling a bit again.  There were 8 sales compared to 14 last month and 11 last year.  Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market, but this number isn’t terrible.  The decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…  It was strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 10.5 months.  There was 1 sale in May.  Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.  To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12).  If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, May 2012

Friday, 15 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, May, 2012 indicate that there were 455 properties on the market (up from 426 last month).  Overall, there was about a 5.0 month supply of properties (down from 5.4 last month).  May had 99 sales.  Compared to May, 2011 (88), this year was pretty hot.  Inventory was down compared to 2011 (640).  There were 75 sales last month.  Gwinnett had a pretty good month, and it was evident here.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 118 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.2 month supply (184 and 6.5, respectively last year).  This May’s sales were WAY up, at 42 (29 last year, 28 last month).  This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  And one of the strongest in the whole county.  The next level up is coming up fast.  There are a few other segments in the county getting close, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 220 listings for sale (310 last year, 200 last month), and 5.5 months of supply.  Sales in May, 2012 were 43 (35 in April), compared with 45 for the same period in 2011.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was at 6.0 months (7.1 in April).  There were 11 sales in May (10 in April)… up from 10 last May.  Looking at the three month average, there were 31 sales this year and 18 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 27 listings, with about a 13.5 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (0 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 6… For the same time last year, the sales were 5.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 8 homes listed and 24 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some more sales activity.  There was 1 sale in March this year.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 20 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 15 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for March, 2 for April and 0 for May).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 22 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties.  The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses.  It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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How to Get THE Best Deal…

Monday, 11 June 2012 08:00
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Every buyer in the market has one goal in mind… get the best deal possible on the exact house that they want.  Of course, there are a few problems… but like most problems, there ARE solutions.

exterior

exterior (Photo credit: lane.bailey)

The first problem is understanding value…  To begin with, the quality of the deal is NOT measured by sale price v listing price.  The list price and the value are NOT directly related.  You might actually have a better deal in your hand at full price… or even above… with one property, while another might be over-priced at half of the list price.  Compare the price you are getting to the value of the comps.  Don’t forget to subtract (or add) for needed improvements, updates and other differences.  That is what real estate agents do when they create a Comparative Market Analysis.

The second problem is being realistic…  Sure, there is a chance that you might be able to get a property that has a realistic worth of twice what you will pay for it, but don’t expect it.  Especially if you are looking for a property YOU are going to live in.  If you are looking for a rental/investment property, then you don’t need to worry as much about the particulars of living in the property… only how it will work financially.

Third, learn the real market…  You need to have a heart to heart with your real estate agent.  You need to talk openly about the area values and trends.  Not the national values and trends, not the state… not even the city or ZIP code, but the area… subdivision or neighborhood, as well as the price range.  In the market areas I monitor, I see instances where the direction of the market in one price range is opposite that of the adjacent price range.  The same thing happens with locales.

English: To Let in Dover As the estate agent w...

English: To Let in Dover As the estate agent would say , 'A property with potential'. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The fourth problem is REAL big.  Don’t “just toss something out there as a starting point”.  This one is huge.  I see it all of the time.  Buyers toss out an incredibly low offer “to get the ball rolling”.  BUT, when working with an actual human seller, it often only serves to anger them and get them to dig in their heels.  When dealing with an institutional seller, it makes them think the buyer isn’t serious.  In either case, what ends up happening is that the chance of a deal gets slimmer… and if there is a deal between the buyer and seller, it might end up not being as good of a deal as if the buyer had made a higher initial offer.  (BTW Sellers… this one works both ways… pricing too high often leads to a lower selling price in the end).

Finally…  Be READY to act when you find what you want.  It isn’t a deal if you leave it laying on the side of the road.

If YOU are ready, give me a call.  Lane 678-200-5895…

 

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Wayback Wednesday… Incrementalism Revisited

Wednesday, 06 June 2012 08:00
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I am a gearhead.  And the last vehicle that I really built up was a Jeep Wrangler.  A friend of mine and I coined a term (at least WE think we coined it).

Incrementalism

English: A Jeep Wrangler TJ with a 2 inch susp...

English: A Jeep Wrangler TJ with a 2 inch suspension lift, 1 inch body lift, 12,000 pound winch and 33 inch tires offroading in the snow in Alaska. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For us, we were talking about building Jeeps.  And the steps… and the changes along the way.  On MY Jeep journey, I went from 29″ tires and a stock suspension to a 2″ lift and a 31″ mud tires.  Then there was a 3″ lift.  Then we tweaked it to 4″ and put on some 33″ tires.  Then we got wild and built a new suspension that was 6″ over stock… slapped on some 34″ tires… then 35″ tires (there was room, why not?).

There were other things aside from the height… in fact, every part of that Jeep went through multiple incarnations before it finally went away (the only time there are done is when they are gone).

The point about incrementalism is that the steps just follow each other… whether we mean them to or not.  When I started, I didn’t intend to end up with a big Jeep on 35s.  Furthermore… had that been my intention, I should have just done that the first time.  I spent a LOT of money on the intermediate steps.

But it just kept creeping along… out of control.

I see it with home buyers, too…

Of course, it is a little different.  But what happens is that they go from having a $175k budget to liking a house priced at $200k… they might be able to negotiate it down and it isn’t that much more, right?  Then we are looking at homes that are $210k… then $225k… $250k.  Now we are looking at a house that is very unlikely to get negotiated back to their range, and the payments would be significantly higher.

Some buyers might be able to swing it… others, not so much.  But the point is that the change is gradual.  Kind of like the boiling frog story.

Be careful with incrementalism.  It can bite.  Here is my original post about incrementalism, from June 7th, 2008.

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