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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 06 January 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, November, 2011, indicate that there were 1288 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 5.2 month supply of properties.  In 2010, sales for November were at 153, so 233 sales was a rocking increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… not quite as much as last month… but rolling, none the less.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1089 listings, with about a 4.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from November 2010 (216 v 139).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.73 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.  In September I was hoping that October would be a follow up… and it VERY much is what I was looking for… November reinforced that.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 174 listings for sale, and about 13.4 months of supply.  Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again.  With as strong as the segment down was, this one was weak, again.  The 13 sales for October, 2011 were down from the 14 from last year.  Sales should have been closer to 25 units for November.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 19 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 7.1 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 4 sales for November, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There were 0 sales in November, 2010.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 16.5 last month).  While the long term trend is looking better, it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 18 months of supply, again.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last three months. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 0 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000).  It was incorporated in 1821.  Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters.  It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College.  Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy.  As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time.  Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples.  Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

Wednesday, 04 January 2012 08:00
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Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.

Gwinnett County, Georgia

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Here is a link to the old post.  I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…

  • I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory.  Well, I have to say that I hit that one.  Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend.  Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
  • Interest Rates ARE going to rise.  They did… a little… but they are down.  I was wrong.
  • … there will be another wave of government intervention…  I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
  • The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery… and that will continue.  I hit that one right.  The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
  • And I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k).  Talk about a hurting market segment…  Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
  • The “Near Luxury” segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed.  That one is pretty close.  There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much.  A few are just waffling.
  • I don’t see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011.  How do I rate this one?  Officially, I am wrong.  However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up.  The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

 

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Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Monday, 02 January 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Buford, GA, November, 2011 indicate that there were 480 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 7.2 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 44 sales for October, way down  from 77 last month and dead on the 44 sales last November (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 261 listings, with a 5.8 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were way down from last month (30 v 51), but flat compared to last year (29 sales in November, 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is reasonably strong.  And the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a slight seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 162 listings for sale, and about 9.4 months of supply. The 11 sales recorded were well down from the 23 from last month and slightly from the 13 sales last year for November. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically… it’s still weaker than it should be, though.

From $400k to $600k, there were 33 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.3 Months. There have been 12 sales in the last 3 months (3 for November, 3 sales for October, 6 sales for September). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the last two months I was looking for…  Just for comparison, there were 2 sales in the Sept.-Nov. period in 2010.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 8 listings. Absorption Rate is 48 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 8 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 4 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was five months ago.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 8 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 8 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June.  So, we have 24 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 30 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , November, 2011 indicates that there are 173 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.3 month supply.  There were 34 sales, compared to 18 last month and 15 last November.  The Absorption Rate (AR) actually increased, but that is largely due to the weakness last month.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 124 listings, with about 5.2 months supply.  There were 29 sales this November, dramatically more than last year for the same time (10).  Last month there were 18 sales.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month increased.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 42 listings for sale, and about 31.5 months of supply.  Last November there was an 13.4 month supply.  Last November there were 5 sales, this year there were 2.  Last month also had none.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 4 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 4 months, but with 4 sales since last October (until November), it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference, and we had 3 more sales in November alone.  That brought the total sales for the year from 4 to 7.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County.  The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… The Dad Seminar.

Wednesday, 28 December 2011 08:00
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Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith, Wa...Let me start by saying Thank You to my Dad.  I miss him just about every day, and I had NO idea how much he did, hid, put up with and shouldered… without ever saying a word.

Last year I wrote a post about our last trip to Disney World… specifically about the “rolling dad Seminar” that I was able to engage in.

“Rolling Dad Seminar, you say?”

You have to check out the post to see the details, but the short version is that there seemed to be a lot of clearly defined “Dad Duties” in the parks.  And I watched Dad after Dad performing these tasks… sometimes I was right along-side, performing the same tasks for my family.  And while we were engaged in the “wait” portion of “hurry up and wait”, I talked with a few other Dads… and it was a LOT of fun.

We talked about vacations, family, cars (of course), work, rides… ALL kinds of stuff.  One of the funniest things that happened was a “walking-by high-five” with a Dad I met in a ride line.  He’d managed to score some prime Fast Passes for a show with a VERY long wait.  My wife raised an eyebrow as I walked by the stranger and just high-fived him.

There are a few other little tidbits you might catch in the original post…

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