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Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Friday, 27 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Buford, GA, March, 2012 indicate that there were 407 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.0 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 86 sales for February, up from 64 last month and from the 63 sales last March (2011). It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but it is much better than it has been.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 240 listings, with a 5.0 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were way up from last month (61 v 40), but pretty flat compared to last year (48 sales in March, 2011). But, the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a slight seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 122 listings for sale, and about 7.3 months of supply. The 19 sales recorded were down from the 23 from last month and up a bit from the 14 sales last year for March. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is one of the stronger $200k-$400k segments in the county, again, with increasing strength.

From $400k to $600k, there were 23 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 17.3 Months. There have been 4 sales in the last 3 months (1 for January, 0 for February and 3 for March). When the market is rolling, there should be 6-8 sales a month during this part of the year. September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the next two months I was looking for… December was back in the right direction, and the drop in listings certainly helps. January certainly wasn’t the month to call a recovery, nor February. Just for comparison, there were 2 sales in the Jan.-Mar. period in 2011.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings. Absorption Rate is 3.6 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 has made things look less slow… but there were 4 sales in this segment last year… and 3 sales in March.  This is a sign of strength, but the low inventory is what is driving the incredible A/R.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed. But, with no sales last year (2011), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 10 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011. So, we have 40 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??

Wednesday, 25 April 2012 08:00
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Photo credit: planspark)

Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).

How can these two stories be squared?

Honestly, I don’t think that they can be…  and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers.  Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.

Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys.  Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties.  By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.

Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices.  The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up.  If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.

Of course, nothing is perfect.

The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced.  And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda.  Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.

My take?  I don’t think we are quite ready to recover.  Yet.  I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market.  And that shakes out to local areas…

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 23 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , March, 2012 indicates that there are 153 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.2 month supply.  There were 26 sales, compared to 19 last month and 23 last March.  The Absorption Rate (AR) increase, largely due to the weaker sales the last two months.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 108 listings, with about 5.3 months supply.  There were 25 sales this March, significantly than last year for the same time (15).  There were 18 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month there was a slight decrease.  We should have had a major inventory bump over the last two months.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 40 listings for sale, and about 30 months of supply.  Last March there was an 14.8 month supply.  There were 8 sales, this year there were 1.  Last month also had 1 sale.  This was VERY weak.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 2 home on the market. The absorption rate was around 4 months, but with 3 sales in November (and those being the only sales since July), it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, March 2012

Sunday, 22 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, March, 2012, indicates that there were 344 properties on the market (as of March 31st).  Overall, there was about an 7.4 month supply of properties and 51 properties that closed (sold) in March.  It was a decrease from last year’s sales (55) but an increase from February (43 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.37 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a year ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 237 listings, with about an 5.8 month supply with 41 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales increased solidly from last month (36), and were also down ever so slightly from last year (43).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 96 listings for sale, and about 18.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  It is stalling a bit again.  There were 9 sales compared to 9 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  But the decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It was strengthening, just not as quickly as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 21 months (one year average).  There was 1 sales in March.  It was the first sale in the segment since last July.  Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Are We At The Bottom Yet?

Wednesday, 18 April 2012 10:24
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Historic downtown Marietta's town square

Historic downtown Marietta's town square (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It seems that every time someone figures out I am in real estate, the next question is…

Are we at the market bottom yet?

The answer is… that I don’t know.  And anyone that tells you that they DO know is either lying or from the future.  I’m not banking that they are from the future.

Prices in the Atlanta area are WAY down from the highs of 2006-2008.  In some areas, it is more than 50% down from those highs.  In other areas, we are “only” down 30%.  Day after day, I talk with people that are underwater, or just plain mad that their values have eroded to the extent they have.

Right now, there are a couple of things in favor of calling a “market bottom”… beginning with inventories.  We are at historical lows in inventories.  And at a time when we usually see them increasing (Spring), they are still dropping.  Meanwhile, year over year sales are growing strongly.  Those are both good things for the recovery of the market (unless you are a buyer looking to “wait for it to go lower”).  Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing.  That generally should lead to a strengthening of prices.

But all is not “milk and honey” in the real estate realm.  A large percentage of sales in the Atlanta area, and in Gwinnett County, is tied to distressed property… foreclosures and short sales.  Not just that, but those sales are largely at the bottom of the market… entry level houses.  Under the $200k level, the Absorption Rates are generally well under 6 months.  Some are barely above 3 months of inventory.  At the same time, move-up homes are not doing as well.  Passing $300k, A/Rs are mostly over 12 months.  In effect, there is twice as much inventory are there should be for the level of sales.

The latest reports say that the foreclosure pipeline is about to get filled again, too.  With the settlement of the lawsuit between major lenders and most states, banks are free to continue foreclosing on distressed properties.  While there are a lot of people that aren’t happy about that, it is a needed step for recovery.  BUT, we have been hearing about the “next wave of foreclosures” for more than three years.  It has always been just a few months away.  It is still just a few months away.

Here is the bottom line, in my opinion…

If the next wave of foreclosures breaks on the shore, then there will be a round of price erosion.  There will be an increase in supply, and demand likely won’t be able to keep pace… prices will drop.

If the wave fizzles before hitting the beach, we have already seen the bottom in the entry level market, and that bottom will soon pass at higher price levels.

If the jobs picture brightens, the foreclosure wave won’t matter as much.  Demand will pick up much, if not all of the excess supply.

If the jobs picture dims, the market will continue to slide.  The fizzling of the foreclosure wave will keep us where we are, at best.

As a side note, the unemployment rate is NOT a measure of the jobs picture.  We need to look deeper… like at the employment rate.  We actually still have a decrease in the percentage of employed Americans, despite the unemployment rate dropping.  The unemployment rate does not take into account discouraged workers that have left the job market.

So, how do you feel about the people telling you that they know where the market is going?

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