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Category Archives: buyers

Duluth, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Friday, 04 May 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, March, 2012 indicated that there were 431 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 7.6 month supply of properties.  Sales in March were 75, up from 65 a year earlier.  Sales were up a similar compared to the prior month (also 65).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 172 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 5.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in March were way up this year v last year (44 v 30), but slightly down compared to last month (45).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 120 listings for sale, and about 9.7 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now.  Sales were down compared to March, 2011 (19 v 21) but way up compared to last month (8).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 39 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 6.5 months.  March brought in 6 sales.  There were 5 last year and 8 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 36 listings, with about 15.4 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for March… 4 for March last year.  Month to month sales were up as well (3 v 1).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 22 homes listed and approximately 16.5 months of inventory on the market.  The 2 sales recorded for March was down from last year’s 3 and flat from the 2 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 4 sales for the last 3 months was killed by the the 3 months from last year (8 sales).  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.  And two month ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 42 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 63 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 3 sales in the Jan-Mar period this year, and 3 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 1 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Listing Inventory is Starting to Rise…

Wednesday, 02 May 2012 08:00
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at least a little.

I’ll be curious to see the sales statistics for Gwinnett County, but those won’t stabilize for about a week… but looking at the listing inventory, we are having a little more normal direction.  Of course, some segments are getting more inventory, others are still shrinking, but on the balance, it is moving toward normalcy.

For the last few months, inventories have been shrinking, especially at the entry level.  At the upper end of the market, there have been plenty of homes on the market, but under $200k, not so much.  Normally, from January through March or April, we see rising inventories.  In March or April, sales start to catch up, fewer people are coming into the market, inventory stabilizes and starts to slide a little going into summer.

Checking the levels on April 30th, levels seem to be starting to stabilize.

If sales continue to strengthen, I expect to see inventory start to decrease again as we move into summer… of course, it might also unleash some of the sellers that have been trying to “wait it out”.  They might think this is a good time to wring a little more out fo the sale of their homes.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

I should also mention that sales are reasonably strong, and interest rates are rocking.  but the deals are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 30 April 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, March, 2012, indicate that there were 1066 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 4.7 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for last March were at 239, so 275 sales was a solid increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This month we are rocking, better than last month (196 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 882 listings, with about a 4.1 month supply of homes.  Sales were well up from March, 2011 (260 v 220).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.10 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were way up from 181 in February.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 162 listings for sale, and about 14.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 14 sales for March, 2012 were down from the 16 from last year.  They were up ever so slightly from the 13 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for March.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 15 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 15.0 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 1 sale for March, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There was 2 sales in March, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 three months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 12.0 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in March.  There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale in January 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Friday, 27 April 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Buford, GA, March, 2012 indicate that there were 407 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.0 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 86 sales for February, up from 64 last month and from the 63 sales last March (2011). It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but it is much better than it has been.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 240 listings, with a 5.0 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were way up from last month (61 v 40), but pretty flat compared to last year (48 sales in March, 2011). But, the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a slight seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 122 listings for sale, and about 7.3 months of supply. The 19 sales recorded were down from the 23 from last month and up a bit from the 14 sales last year for March. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is one of the stronger $200k-$400k segments in the county, again, with increasing strength.

From $400k to $600k, there were 23 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 17.3 Months. There have been 4 sales in the last 3 months (1 for January, 0 for February and 3 for March). When the market is rolling, there should be 6-8 sales a month during this part of the year. September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the next two months I was looking for… December was back in the right direction, and the drop in listings certainly helps. January certainly wasn’t the month to call a recovery, nor February. Just for comparison, there were 2 sales in the Jan.-Mar. period in 2011.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings. Absorption Rate is 3.6 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 has made things look less slow… but there were 4 sales in this segment last year… and 3 sales in March.  This is a sign of strength, but the low inventory is what is driving the incredible A/R.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed. But, with no sales last year (2011), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 10 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011. So, we have 40 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??

Wednesday, 25 April 2012 08:00
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Photo credit: planspark)

Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).

How can these two stories be squared?

Honestly, I don’t think that they can be…  and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers.  Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.

Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys.  Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties.  By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.

Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices.  The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up.  If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.

Of course, nothing is perfect.

The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced.  And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda.  Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.

My take?  I don’t think we are quite ready to recover.  Yet.  I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market.  And that shakes out to local areas…

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