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Category Archives: buyers

Norcross, GA, Market Report, January 2012

Friday, 02 March 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, January, 2012 indicate that there were 241 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.7 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  January saw 40 sales, ever so slightly below the 41 for January, 2011, and well under the 52 for December.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 140 listings, with about 3.4 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (33 v 32 in Jan11 & 46 Dec11).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At barely over 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 67 listings for sale, and about 14.4 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 6 sales were slightly up compared to last year’s 5 sales, but solidly up from last month’s 4 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  Coming off of a reasonably strong summer selling season is why this segment looks like it is weakening.

From $400k to $600k, there were 26 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 15.6 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  January’s 1 sale was down from 2 the month before and from last year’s 3 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November (0 in December or January), obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure.  The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Price ≠ Value

Wednesday, 29 February 2012 08:00
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This was actually one of my favorite posts… and oddly, I wrote it around the time of our last Leap Year.  However, it is possibly even MORE true now than it was then, back during the beginning of the crash, as things were unwinding.  At that time, foreclosures hadn’t accelerated, banks weren’t too worried about getting their inventory through the system, and they were still thinking THEY were the ones in control of their market.

English: To Let in Dover As the estate agent w...

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There is a HUGE misconception among real estate consumers.  Many want to connect “price”, like the asking price from the seller, and “value”.  They feel that if they can buy a property for 10%, 30%, 80% (whatever) off of listing price, that they have a “great deal”.  The problem is that there isn’t a magic number that makes a property a “deal”.  As highlighted in the original post, the lower priced property in a subdivision, with the same floorplan and amenities, might not be as good of a deal as a higher priced property.

As I mentioned at the beginning, it may be more true now than it was four years ago.  Then we were seeing some foreclosures, but they weren’t making up half of the market.  They were on the fringe…  Now, they are often the bulk of the sales.  But more importantly, sellers have capitulated…  And because of that, sellers knowing that they have to compete in the price arena with banks and short sales, they have priced for a fight.  The bonus is that they are often homes that AREN’T loaded with the possibility of hidden issues.  They haven’t been sitting vacant for months or years on end.  They often don’t have a myriad of “deferred maintenance” issues (that’s real estate agent speak for “not able to keep up with the maintenance”).

Of course, that isn’t always the case… but the message is just as true now as it was then, pay close attention to the total cost, not just the price tag… or the discount on the price tag.  Look at the value.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2012

Monday, 27 February 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2012 indicated that there were 449 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 9.8 month supply of properties.  Sales in January were 30, slightly down from 40 a year earlier.  But, sales were way down compared to the prior month (57).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 180 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 7.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in January were down this year v last year (13 v 23), and way down compared to last month (35).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county… but it has decelerated again this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 131 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving mostly the wrong way (up) since August.  Sales were up compared to January, 2011 (10 v 7) but down compared to last month (14).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 8.1 months.  January brought in 4 sales. There were 6 last year and 5 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 9.9 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for January… 4 for January last year.  Month to month sales were actually up (3 v 2).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sales recorded for January was flat with last year’s 0 and from the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 36 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 54 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 2 sales in the Nov-Jan period this year, and 3 for the same time last year. Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 0 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2012

Friday, 24 February 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, January, 2012, indicate that there were 1151 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 4.9 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for January were at 148, so 213 sales was a excellent increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… but not quite better than last month (264 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 983 listings, with about a 4.4 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from January 2011 (205 v 121).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.41 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down from 247 in December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 147 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 7 sales for January, 2012 were down from the 18 from last year.  They were down significantly from the 16 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for January.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 17 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 12.8 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 0 sales for January, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There were 2 sales in January, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 two months ago).  While the long term trend was looking better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 6.0 months of supply, again. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in January. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 0 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Great Schools = Great Tool

Wednesday, 22 February 2012 08:00
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Last year I had a quick little post about one of the tools that is easily available to everyone… for free.  And we like free tools.  Since I posted that, we’ve moved.  And just like I counsel prospective buyers, we spent a LOT of time looking through GreatSchools.org to find out about the schools in the areas we were looking.  We eliminated a lot of houses because we weren’t sold on the schools.

Even if you don’t have kids, schools are an important consideration.  When it comes time to sell, a prospective buyer might have school age children… and if the schools in your area have a top rating, there will be more demand in the area.  If the schools are bad, less demand and lower prices.  Of course, keep in mind that schools move up and down in the ratings all of the time.  Also keep in mind that “Your Mileage May Vary” on schools… a great teaching in an average school might work out better than a crappy teacher in a top-notch school. And school boundaries change over time as demographics shift and schools are built and closed.

Gwinnett County has a pretty good school system compared to others in the Atlanta area.  And within Gwinnett, there are a few clusters (we organize schools based on what high school they will feed to) that out-perform.  And within those clusters, there are some middle schools and elementary schools that out-perform others in the same cluster.

My best piece of advice is that #1 isn’t the thing to focus on.  Focus on long term trends for the school and the area.  Schools pop in and out of the #1 spot all of the time, but there always seems to be a core group of schools that are near the top.  When you are looking at having kids in school for the next 14 years (our situation), looking past this year’s #1 and seeing schools that have decades in the top tier becomes more important.

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