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Category Archives: buyers

How to Read a Market Report…

Monday, 10 October 2011 08:00
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A lot of real estate agents write them.  Some have a lot of information, others… not so much.  Some are well laid out and go past the numbers into interpretation.  Others have plenty of numbers, but they don’t even give any sort of scale to use for reference.

I try to give mine a sense of scale, as well as interpret what the numbers mean.  I also wait to post them… until the numbers are fairly solid (and even a few weeks later, the numbers might change a little bit…), but not so long as to make the report outdated as it is published.  Below is an excerpt from one of my market reports:

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there are 593 properties on the market (down from 612 last month). Overall, there is about an 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.4 last month). August had 83 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (636).  The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

So, let’s break it down.

  • 593 Properties… also showing the number of properties on the market the previous month.  Is it going up or down?  Which way SHOULD it be moving?
  • 7.3 month supply…  This is the Absorption Rate.  Here is a whole post explaining absorption rates, what they are and what they mean.  Balanced, in most real estate segments, is about 6.  Higher is a buyer’s market, lower is a seller’s market.  I also generally show the level of the previous month.
  • 83 sales…  and to put it in perspective, we also want to know how many sales there were last month AND how many for the same month last year.  Sometimes, in slower segments, we might look at the last three months of sales (combined) and compare those with the previous year.  For low volume segments, that will be a number that doesn’t jump all over as much and will give a better idea of market direction and strength.
  • Interpretation & Prediction…  I try to do a little of this for most segments of the market.  I track 7 different postal cities (not the city limits, but the mailing addresses) and each in 6 different price ranges.  That makes for a LOT of predictions and interpretation…  But I try to give what I think of each one… assuming there is enough data to get an idea of what is going on.
  • Something graphical…  My newest tool is a graphical representation (from Zillow) showing a history of the region.  Even more than the pinpoint data of the report, the simple graph gives the aerial view of what is happening.  However, it needs to be kept in perspective…  The beginnings of trend are pretty hard to spot on a long-term graph.

Hopefully this will help you get the most from my market reports…

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Friday, 07 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, August, 2011 indicate that there were 334 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.0 month supply of properties.  This year has been very strong so far… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much.  June saw 69 sales, well above the 47 for July and the 52 for last August, and with the decrease in listing inventory the Absorption Rate (AR) built more strength.  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post five strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 191 listings, with about 4.0 month supply.  Sales are up markedly from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (53 v 39).  For the last three months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers… it got a little more so, this month.  This looks like the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 104 listings for sale, and about 9.5 months of supply.  This segment isn’t as weak as it had been over the last several months, but it is surprisingly weak compared to the rest of the segments in the area, as well as the price level in other areas.  The 12 sales were a bump from last year’s 9 sales, as well as a good bump from last month’s 6 sales.  Of course, this segment has always seemed to lag.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 13.3 months.  The AR had been dropping for months, then shot WAY up in June.  It has been working down slowly since.  August’s 4 sales are up from 2 the month before and last year’s 3 sales… but the inventory decrease really helped.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories had decreased compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another each in May and June, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to 16.5 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County.  The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census.  The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area.  It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools.  One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area.  They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Friday, 30 September 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Buford, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there were 534 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.4 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 75 sales for August, down slightly from 77 last month and up significantly from 57 from last August (2010).In the sub-$200k arena, there were 284 listings, with a 4.6 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were down slightly from last month (56 v 61), but impressively strong compared to last year (35 sales in August, 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is quite strong.  And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 179 listings for sale, and about  9.6 months of supply.  The 17 sales recorded were slightly above the 14 from last month, but right on the 17 sales last year for August.  As strong as the Under $200k segment is, this one is MUCH weaker.  It is one of the weaker areas in the county for this price.  Of course, last September, the A/R was almost twice as high.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 23 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There has been 6 sales in the last 3 months (2 sales for August, 1 for July, 3 for June).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one has been extremely weak.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings.  Absorption Rate is 15 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 5 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was last month.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 11 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  Listings are up, but sales aren’t following, though.

Above $1m, there were 9 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June.  FINALLY, new sales!  So, we have 13.5 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… For First Time Home-buyers…

Wednesday, 28 September 2011 08:00
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A couple of years ago I did a little three part series answering some thoughts that many first time home-buyers have.  Of course, all new home-buyers don’t have all of these same thoughts during the buying process, but most have at least one or two of these.  Be sure to check the original posts for more details.

Is the Market Weak?

Two years ago when I wrote the original post, the market was a lot weaker than it is now.  There was a LOT more inventory, and the sales were actually a bit lower than they are now.  In most of the segments where there is first-time home-buyer activity (Under $200k, mostly), absorption rates are running 4½-7 months.  In that range, anything under 6 months is considered strong.  So, while there is still a perception among buyers that they are in complete control, that isn’t necessarily the case.

Of course, there is still some buyer power… but it isn’t on the “best deals” (I actually mean cheapest advertised prices, which may or may not be great deals).  Bank-owned properties are flying off the shelf.  If you think you like it, get the offer in.  If it is owned by a person rather than a corporation, there might be more leverage, but if they are pricing it in the trenches to compete with the banks, then the same rules apply.

I Need to See ALL the Options…

OK, in all honesty, this one isn’t limited to first time buyers…  This is a HUGE issue for a lot of buyers.  It is subsiding a little, but only because it is easier to see all of the options.  But even with that going for buyers now, there are still a lot that are missing out because they just want to “look at a couple more houses”.  As a Real Estate Agent, I understand.  But I also HATE making the call to a prospective buyer telling them that the house we looked at last week, the one that they REALLY wanted, is under contract.

I encourage buyers to look at houses.  But, at the same time, I have to remind them that when they see the house they think they want, delay can mean loss.  Maybe not such a problem if it is wildly overpriced, but if the price is fair, take the shot.  There might not be another chance.

I Just Found a REAL Bargain…

Ask any real estate agent and they will tell you that they have heard that line before.  Every once in a while, it’s true.  Usually the deal falls apart when the “little issues” start getting added up.  And let me tell you about some of the little issues that I have come across…

  • $50,000 worth of mold remediation
  • $20,000 roof replacement
  • $15,000 AC system replacement
  • $45,000 in structural deficiencies
  • $70,000 for water damage
  • $100,000 in complete interior renovation (that was on a house listed for $75,000 in a neighborhood where houses without the interior issues were listed for $100,000 to $125,000)

If they don’t go sour with just a closer look at the actual costs to deal with the “little issues”, then they generally fall apart during the inspection.  And for first-time home-buyers, they usually should fall apart.

 

There ARE some great deals in the market, but they are seldom the house advertised the lowest price.  And even when they are, keep in mind that they will usually require a major infusion of cash right after closing and before they will be ready to move into.  Of course, there are FHA 203k loans (and I have a mortgage broker that can hook you up with one of those) but they aren’t the magic bullet…

Working with an agent that understands more about the house than whether the drapes and carpets match is a pretty solid start.  You know where to find me.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Monday, 26 September 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , August, 2011indicate that there are 202 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.0 month supply.  There were 33 sales, compared to 45 last month and 15 last August.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is partly due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 149 listings, with about 4.5 months supply.  There were 31 sales this August, 2½ times the number from last year for the same time (12).  Last month there were 36 sales.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 48 listings for sale, and about 11.1 months of supply.  Last August there was an 11.5 month supply.  Last August there were 3 sales, this year there were 2.  Last month had 8.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 3 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 2.25 months, but with 5 sales since last September, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  I hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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