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Category Archives: lawrenceville

Market Report Changes…

Wednesday, 27 February 2013 09:00
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I’m making a big change for the market reports from January, 2013, forward.

English: Chart showing the median and average ...

English: Chart showing the median and average sales prices of new homes sold in the United States by month/year. Based off of US Census Median and Average Sales Price of New Houses Sold Data. Please note that the sales price includes land. Also, the average from 1963-1974 inclusively, is annual, and not monthly. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Instead of tracking average Days on Market (DoM), I’m going to track median DoM.  It might not seem like much of a change, but I’m seeing segments where the average is 100+ days, while the median 50 or 60 days.  The reason for this is that the average is giving too much weight to a few outlier properties that might have 500 or more days on the market.

A while back, FMLS, the primary provider of the data I analyze, changed the way THEY calculated DoM.  The started tracking the property for total days on market instead of just the most recent listing.

While FMLS’s policy change made the data more accurate for individual listings, it also made it much less relevant for the market trends.  The median data is more accurate for market trends because it lowers the effects of the outliers.

I discontinued posting the DoM data in the market reports a while back because it ceased being useful, but I have continued to track it.  Moving forward, while I still probably won’t include the DoM data directly in the reports, I will allude to it as I see trends develop.

Enjoy…

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2012

Thursday, 21 February 2013 15:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, November, 2012, indicate that there were 775 properties on the market, down 19 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for November were at 233, so 208 sales was a decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 247. Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 627 listings, with about a 3.0 month supply of homes. Sales were down from November, 2011 (189 v 216), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were almost 1100 listings v just over 600 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 2.97 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 226 in October.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 129 listings for sale, and about 8.1 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 17 sales for November, 2012 edged the 13 from last year, but and faded compared to the 18 sales last month. But, we had been close to Balanced Market territory here, but have slipped back to Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are 12 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 5.1 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 2 sales for November, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 33 six months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 12 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in November. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012, 1 in May and 1 in October.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July, but none in August. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2012

Monday, 11 February 2013 12:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, October, 2012, indicate that there were 794 properties on the market, down 42 from last month.  Overall, there was about a 3.0 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for October were at 263, so 247 sales was a decrease, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 234.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 637 listings, with about a 2.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were down from October, 2011 (226 v 247), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were over 1100 listings v just over 600 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 2.66 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were up from 218 in September.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 135 listings for sale, and about 6.8 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side.  The 18 sales for October, 2012 edged the 15 from last year, but and passed the 13 sales last month.  But, we were close to Balanced Market territory here, but have slipped back to Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are 14 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 4.7 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 2 sales for October, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 33 four months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was 1 sale in October. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012 and 1 in May.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July, but none in August. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Yep… A Seller’s Market. But What Does That Mean NOW?

Tuesday, 05 February 2013 09:00
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Supply and Demand

Supply and Demand (Photo credit: ATENCION:)

Normally, a Seller’s Market means that conditions are generally better for sellers than for buyers.  There is, in effect, more demand than there is supply.  And, usually, that means that sellers are more in control of pricing and terms for their homes.  Prices generally rise and there are fewer demands made upon sellers in regards to inspections, and other concessions.

 

But things aren’t always “normal”.  Now is a great example of that.

Right now, the majority of Gwinnett is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  Below about half a million dollars, Absorption Rates remain under the magical 6 months… in some cases, even below 3 months.  Above half a million, things aren’t quite as rosy, but they are WAY stronger than they have been for years.

But all is not beer and pizza in Seller Land.  In fact, it may be FAR from fun to be a seller in today’s market, no matter what the numbers look like.  The reality is that bank-owned properties are skewing the numbers… or skewering, depending on how you want to look at it.  What has happened is that bank-owned inventory has come to dominate the market.  It may or may not be the majority, but there is enough of a presence that it pushes the pricing down for all of the homes that are actually selling.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing depends on whether you are a buyer or a seller.  As a buyer, it means that the homes you look are are either priced quite competitively (and don’t stay on the market very long) or they aren’t… and they stay on the market forever.

One of the ways that I can see this is by looking at the “Days on Market” (DoM) stats while preparing Market Reports.  They are jumping ALL over the place.  This isn’t a direct sign, but rather one that is more deduction.  In some segments I am seeing DoMs bounce from over 100 days to under 50 days and back over 100 in back to back to back months.  This means that homes that every once in a while a home that sells has been on the market a VERY long time… pushing up the average, then there are none of those “old-timers” the next month… then another one pops through.

What does it all mean?

Simply… as a buyer, if you see a home you like, and it is priced well, there will likely be competition for it.  Don’t expect that you can toss a low offer across the table and get a reply.  In fact, I have seen a LOT of multiple offer situations on well-priced properties.  As a seller, don’t expect that you can price your home at the level you thought it was worth a few years ago.  You are competing with bank-owned properties and their primary motivation is to not own the property any longer than they need to in order to almost break even… and their definition of break even may include insurance payments and government inducements to hurry up and sell it.

One may say that the worst aspects of both a seller’s market and a buyer’s market are present right now… fierce competition (for buyers) for the “right” properties and weak pricing for sellers).

If you really want to sell your property, let’s talk…

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2012

Wednesday, 30 January 2013 14:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, September, 2012, indicate that there were 836 properties on the market, down 65 from last month.  Overall, there was about a 3.1 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for September were at 243, so 234 sales was a slight decrease, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 308.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 680 listings, with about a 2.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were down from September, 2011 (218 v 228), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were almost 1200 listings v just over 700 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 2.70 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down from 275 in August.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 129 listings for sale, and about 7.2 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 13 sales for September, 2012 edged the 11 from last year, but was walloped by the 29 sales last month. But, we were close to Balanced Market territory here, but have slipped back to Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are 18 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 6.8 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 3 sales for September, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 33 three months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 24 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in September. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012 and 1 in May.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July, but none in August. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

Related articles
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