Category Archives: lilburn

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates. Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home. Couldn’t be easier. It’s almost too easy. OK, it IS too easy. And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though. They actually ARE quite useful. Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions. The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out. what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area. The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house. And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool. If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know). And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong. In the business, we call it “buying a listing”. The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place. The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed. The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

Change to Local Market Reports (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Absorption Rate, What Is It? (lanebailey.com)
How to Figure Internet Home Values (online.wsj.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)

Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 28 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, October, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of October 31st). Overall, there was about an 8.4 month supply of properties and 60 properties that closed (sold) in October. It was an increase from last year’s sales (38) and an increase from September, 2011 (44 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 8.43 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example). And for October, Lilburn had one of the best month-to-month sales increases.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 306 listings, with about an 7.3 month supply with 53 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales increased markedly from last month (35), and were also up dramatically from last year (32). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 109 listings for sale, and about 12.1 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little. There were 7 sales compared to 6 last year. This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. It is one of the few market/price segments that had an increase in listings. I’m not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August, September or October.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… The Lilburn CID (lanebailey.com)
Terra Sol by Pulte near Lilburn (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn agrees to November vote on Sunday sales (ajc.com)
Gwinnett County Homestretch… Again… (lanebailey.com)

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Wednesday, 02 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Three years ago I wrote about a quiet little map that the NAR (National Association of REALTORSS®) had built (and they’re still populating with data) showing the median home prices of various metro areas around the country. It is pretty interesting to see median prices around the country and compare them with the prices here (or where you live).

View Metropolitan Sales Areas Q1 2011 in a larger map

There is a dark side, though. That would be looking at the numbers in historical perspective. Here is a quote from 3 years ago:

For the 2nd Quarter, the Atlanta area was at $158,300, which was down 9.8% from the 1st Quarter.

Now, the Median Home Price here is a little more challenging. For the 1st Quarter this year the Median Home Price was $99,800, and that was down 9.4% from a year ago. More importantly, it is down about 37% from three years ago. I don’t have a complete set of data, but I suspect that the median price has dropped around 50% in Metro Atlanta.

One important note here is that this does NOT mean that the value of any particular house has dropped 50%, or that the average value of homes have dropped 50%. There is NO mistaking that home prices have crashed and burned… then crashed some more. But there has also been a shift in the last couple of years towards less expensive homes.

Be sure to keep an eye my local market reports for more specific data about individual areas of Gwinnett County.

White House Quote of the Day (bokertov.typepad.com)

Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 17 October 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, September, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of September 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.7 month supply of properties and 44 properties that closed (sold) in September. It was an increase from last year’s sales (35) and a decrease from August, 2011 (48 sales). The Absorption Rate notched up slightly, again. Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 8.66 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 35 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales decreased slightly from last month (37), and were up slightly from last year (32). We are sitting almost exactly where we were last year at this time. That isn’t a terribly bad thing, although this segment needs to play catch up a little with some other areas of Gwinnett County.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 108 listings for sale, and about 12.5 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little. There were 9 sales compared to just 2 last year. While it isn’t strong compared to some other areas, it is WAY better than last year at this time. This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August or September.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… The Lilburn CID (lanebailey.com)
Terra Sol by Pulte near Lilburn (lanebailey.com)
Lilburn agrees to November vote on Sunday sales (ajc.com)
Gwinnett County Homestretch… Again… (lanebailey.com)

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Old photo of the estate Hollander Höfe (Höben)...

Image via Wikipedia

Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991… There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008. And to me, that was a good thing. If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago. In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts. And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008. And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago. However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”. Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years. For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer? Well, it comes down to a few factors…

Pricing… It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets. Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
Vacant Inventory… Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now. I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging. (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
Buyer Fear… Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory. And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak. But it comes down to averages… One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

Housing Start Source.

Wayback Wednesday… From the Meltdown. (lanebailey.com)
Chart of the Day: Housing Starts vs. Unemployed (craigkamman.wordpress.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Bankrupt Subdivisions… Good Deal? (lanebailey.com)
Time to be bullish US Home Builders? (part 2) (tradingfloor.com)

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Category Archives: lilburn

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Custom Listings

Browse Listings

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Category Archives: lilburn

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

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