5 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

4834 Elkhorn Hill Drive

Suwanee, GA 30024

$3950000
Welcome Home to your Elegant Rustic Style Lodge with unique custom finishes and high quality Craftsmanship throughout the home. A splendid setting where elegance meets nature. This 5BD/6.3 BA home (2 of the BD's are master Suites)has private view of the Greg Norman Golf Course, a pond and mature woods. Backyard features pool w/hot tub,waterfall and Firepit for your everyday enjoyment. 2 Cooks kitchens, 6 FP's,Spa area on terrace level w/Sauna,Steam shower,massage room, work out room & Aerobic room.3 Laundry rooms, Elevator, Wide plank hand scraped walnut floors.

Summary

MLS #5650314
Price3950000
Bedrooms5
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage10185
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

7 Bed / 7 Bath Home in THE RIVER CLUB

4745 Cuyahoga Cove

Suwanee, GA 30024

$3790000
ONE OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE FRENCH PROVINCIAL ESTATES TO REACH MARKET IN N. ATLANTA, BOASTING UNPRECEDENTED DETAIL & ARCHITECTURAL CUSTOM CRAFTSMANSHIP.... SITTING ON A LEVEL CUL-DE-SAC LOT YET PERCHED TALL ABOVE THE GREG NORMAL GOLF COURSE, WITH PANORAMIC VIEWS AND 380 FT OF LAKE FRONTAGE, THIS HOME TOOK ALMOST $1 MILLION IN HAND-CUT TENNESSEE STONEWORK ALONE. ENJOY WIDE-PLANK HEART OF PINE FLOORING, LARGE AND ENTERTAINING OPEN FLOOR PLAN. ABSOLUTELY STUNNING GOURMET CHEF'S KITCHEN WITH DOUBLE SUB ZEROS- AND VIRTUALLY EVERY CONCEIVABLE OPTION. 4 FIREPLACES. 5-CAR

Summary

MLS #5718436
Price3790000
Bedrooms7
Bathrooms (Full)7
Square Footage11738
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

4914 Kettle River Point

Suwanee, GA 30024

$2599000
Welcome home to this Impeccable Family Retreat - you'll never have to go on vacation again! Stunning brick & stone estate situated on almost an acre of pure luxury overlooking the 4th hole. No detail has been spared inside and out with superb craftmanship on all 3 levels. Perfect home for entertaining or everyday family living. Outdoor amenities are unparalleled w/ pool, hot tub, firepit, putting green, poolside cabana w/ swim up bar. Elan system for whole house entertainment w/ control 4 for media. Master on main with Jr masters on the upper and terrace floors.

Summary

MLS #5664792
Price2599000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage10597
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

4695 Whitestone Way

Suwanee, GA 30024

$2599000
Custom Home in The River Club. 6 Bedroom 6.5 Ba on double lot backing golf course. 1st floor features large 2 story foyer overlooking LR with handsome study and large entertaining DR. Gourmet kitchen overlooks oversized Family Room and covered porch. Master on main and 2nd bedroom on main. Upstairs features 3 bedrooms all with private baths and large dressing area. Terrace level features bedroom and bath, Bar area, game room and theatre.

Summary

MLS #5751567
Price2599000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage8412
Square Footage SourceAppraisal
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

4605 Whitestone Way

Suwanee, GA 30024

$2500000
Exquisite estate home with the finest attention to detail throughout. Overlooking 4th green, home features marble inlayed foyer, Liv Rm, Office w/FP, opulent Great Rm w/FP, state of the art Kitchen, Stunning Keeping Rm w/beamed ceiling & FP, Romantic Master on main, elevator, World class terrace Lvl w/Rec Rm w/FP, Bar, Billiards Rm w/FP, Humidor, Home Theater(all equipment stays!), 2nd master suite & most beautiful finish work in the River Club. Pool & spa w/stone surround, stunning outdoor living areas. WOW!

Summary

MLS #5722910
Price2500000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage9476
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

869 Big Horn Hollow

Suwanee, GA 30024

$2450000
Welcome home...you've earned this! Enter an innovative floor plan built for entertaining & family enjoyment. Delight in vaulted wood beamed ceilings throughout, wood, brick & travertine floors, wide baseboards, stained doors throughout. The chef of the family will revel in the showcase kitchen of granite and brick. Master on main, separate his & hers baths/closets with car wash shower for both to enjoy. Terrace level is filled with customized features including media room with built in show cases for memorabilia, bar, wine cellar, game room, cozy rec room with fireplace

Summary

MLS #5713023
Price2450000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage9663
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

912 Little Darby Lane

Suwanee, GA 30024

$2099000
Old world European inspired master piece, indescribable detail thruout,in private setting, 2 story grand foyer w/spiral staircase, pecky cypress paneled study, gourmet kitchen views to fireside keep rm ,Private master suite on main level w/spa like master bath, his/hers closets w/custom built-ins, whole house audio system ,cover porch w/outdoor fireplace/Terrace level features: Pub style bar,w/1800 bottle wine cellar, theater seats 8 features concession stand, billiard rm,card rm,spa rm w/sauna, salt water pool & spa w/cascading waterfalls & outdoor fire pit.

Summary

MLS #5693604
Price2099000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage9755
Square Footage SourceBuilder
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

962 Little Darby Lane

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1849999
Exquisite details with superb finishing mark this amazing River Club home! Formal DR w pecky cypress walls, rustic aged exposed beams, handkerchief ceiling in foyer w built in bookcases. Kitchen built for 2 chefs w island feat all Viking appl & custom inlay cabinetry. Owners suite on main. Barn door leads to pool bath, mud rm w laundry & hammered copper sink. Junior master w spa bath. Finished terrace level& outdoor living at its finest. Complete w private 1 Bdrm Guest House w kitchenette & screened porch overlooking saltwater pool w spa.

Summary

MLS #5645985
Price1849999
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage7603
Square Footage SourceBuilder
StatusActive

Features

5 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

878 Crescent River Pass

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1799999
Stunning Brick & Stone Manor home w good golf course views. Outdoor living rooms on multi levels w fireplace overlooking pool & waterfall spa. Chefs kitchen w mixed woods. Working island w veggie sink, warming drawer, Wolf gas coooktop, dual dishwashers, subzero and wine chiller. Main floor boasts study w fireplace, living room w fireplace & stone walls, formal dining room, & owners suite on main. 3 generous ensuite bedrooms upstairs. Terrace level finished w media, billiards area, custom bar, wine, office, & guest bedroom w full bath.

Summary

MLS #5758623
Price1799999
Bedrooms5
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage7316
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

5212 Boulder Bluff Way

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1789900
A cul-de-sac lot, this 6 bed home offers an abundance of outdoor living spaces,spa pool & fire pit backing up to natural woods. Foyer flanked w/a large DR & study.The kitchen has it all: island w/serving bar,walk-in pantry & counter space for the home chef.The vaulted kitchen-family room is accented w/ truss beams. Main floor master has spacious his/her walk in closets. A finished terrace w/ theater, family/billiards & game rooms,full kitchen, weight room, guest suite & BA completes this home.

Summary

MLS #5687744
Price1789900
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage7553
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in None

2915 Southers Circle

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1680000
Peaceful estate with all the amenities-an entertainer's delight! Enter through the iron gate & follow the drive through the trees to your new dream home. A must see with no detail forgotten! Gorgeous Chef's kitchen open to keeping room & breakfast area. Master on main. Finished basement w/full kitchen, custom walnut bar, theater room & more. Saltwater pool/spa with auto cover & outdoor fireplace. HUGE shop w/14' RV door & second 12' door, foam insulation, wired 220 w/gas lines run. Enjoy the convenience of the Chattahoochee Recreation Area out your back door.

Summary

MLS #5740199
Price1680000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage5385
Square Footage SourceAppraisal
StatusActive

Features

4 Bed / 4 Bath Home in The River Club

4870 Hanalei Hollow

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1599990
Home must be sold with a 18-24 month lease back. Fabulous Arthur Rutenberg Custom Home siutated in the River Valley at The River Club. This stunning home features an open floor plan for entertaining, gourmet chef's kitchen and owners suite on the main floor. Upstairs are 3 additional on suite bedrooms and a bonus room. Home has amazing view of 16th fairway and is walking distance to the club. This home is sold furnished.

Summary

MLS #5765916
Price1599990
Bedrooms4
Bathrooms (Full)4
Square Footage4333
Square Footage SourceBuilder
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in THE RIVER CLUB

4732 Blackwater Way

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1599900
Sitting beautifully on the 6th hole, this home has all the extensive trim/finishes any discriminating buyer will appreciate! Filled w natural light w features to include solid teak flooring, true hand crafted masonry frpl, planked walls in FR, waterworks faucets throughout, custom interior trim & built ins, calcutta gold marble counter tops, & custom hardware. Home is accented w hand baked brick, stone foundation & slate roof for welcoming appeal. Owner suite up w frpl & bath w waterworks tub, steam shower & bidet. Terr lvl w kitchen/bar & bath. 4 car garage too!

Summary

MLS #5566477
Price1599900
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage7800
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

7 Bed / 8 Bath Home in Belmore Estates

4994 Price Drive

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1599000
Stunning brick & stone estate on over 1 acre in private gated community. Resort style pool featuring waterfall,slide,hot tub, & fire pit plus covered porch w fireplace.4car garage, 8 fireplaces, 3 laundry rooms. Huge owner's suite w private balcony, spacious secondary bedrooms & lofts. Gourmet kitchen well-equipped w high-end appliances opens to spacious keeping room & breakfast room overlooking pool.Terrace level has 2nd kitchen/bar, theater, fitness, steam sauna, game room, den, & guest suite. MANY details and UPGRADES! Luxurious Lifestyle!

Summary

MLS #5765505
Price1599000
Bedrooms7
Bathrooms (Full)8
Square Footage11592
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

6 Bed / 6 Bath Home in The River Club

4505 Whitestone Way

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1550000
Tuscan columns and a wrought iron railing greet you at the covered porch of this brick & stone estate, inviting you to step inside. The gracious interior includes 12' ceilings, panelled study, sunny solarium with brick walls & soaring arched windows, a chef's dream kitchen w/ honed granite counter tops, soapstone apron sink, top of the line appliances. Tremendous entertaining space with covered outdoor living space including an outdoor dining porch. Guest suite on main lined by leaded glass windows w/ access to the covered porch.

Summary

MLS #5634131
Price1550000
Bedrooms6
Bathrooms (Full)6
Square Footage8187
Square Footage SourceAppraisal
StatusActive

Features

4 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

878 Big Horn Hollow

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1499999
Superb craftsmanship reflect in the River Club brick/stone home. Welcoming foyer feat inlaid floors & flanked by gentleman's Study w custom builtins & formal DR. Natural light fills the GR w fireplace & wet bar. Gourmet Kit feat dual Dishwashers, Subzero, Thermador 6 burner cooktop & dual convection ovens, large island & 2 pantries! Main level owner ste w sitting area & spa bath. Stained Canadian Maple hardwood flooring, 2 ensuite bdrms up & junior owner ste w jetted tub & dual vanities. Fin terr includes billiards/game room & gym w rubber flooring w full bath.

Summary

MLS #5758524
Price1499999
Bedrooms4
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage7133
Square Footage SourceAppraisal
StatusActive

Features

5 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

932 Chattooga Trace

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1490000
Modern Day CHIC nestled in the ultra exclusive River Club. Every detail was carefully selected and quality crafted; Reclaimed wood beams & finishes, shiplap & birch walls, Luster Stone walls & ceilings, rich moldings. Master suite on main offers serenity & privacy. Open 2 story family room w/ stone fireplace & T&G ceiling adjacent to the modern renovated chef's kitchen. Enjoy alfresco dining on the covered porch or enjoy smores by the fire on the amazing renovated Trex deck that overlooks the pristine gardens. Full daylight terrace level awaits your finishes.

Summary

MLS #5760185
Price1490000
Bedrooms5
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage5780
Square Footage SourceAppraisal
StatusActive

Features

5 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

5108 Coosa Court

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1475000
Located in a Private setting,home has been meticulously maintained paneled study, gourmet kitchen views to fireside vaulted keep rm,hardwood flooring throughout,master suite on main level w/spa like master bath, his/hers closets w/custom built-ins,second master suite upstairs,large secondary bedrooms w/private baths & great closet space,laundry on main & upstairs cover screen porch w/outdoor fireplace amazing backyard w/stone paver patio that views cascading waterfall & outdoor fire pit.Home backs up to nature preserve,prefect lot for pool walk out from your main floor

Summary

MLS #5765721
Price1475000
Bedrooms5
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage6603
Square Footage SourceTax Record
StatusActive

Features

5 Bed / 4 Bath Home in The River Club

4971 Roaring Fork Pass

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1444800
Stunning J. Patrick O'Donnell brick & stone masterpiece brimming with character in The River Club. Situated on wide lot with preserved forest area, this 5BR, 4 and 2 half BA home is loaded with high-end features, including custom closet system in elegant master retreat on main. Chef's kitchen with pot filler, beverage refrigerator, warming drawer, farm sink, sliding barn door and Wolf range opens up to vaulted, beamed ceilings in family room and screened porch with fireplace. Perfect for entertaining! Full daylight lower level is framed, roughed in for lg in-law suite.

Summary

MLS #5706779
Price1444800
Bedrooms5
Bathrooms (Full)4
Square Footage5000
Square Footage SourceBuilder
StatusActive

Features

5 Bed / 5 Bath Home in The River Club

5192 Boulder Bluff Way

Suwanee, GA 30024

$1425000
Fabulous build opportunity with builder Pat O'Donnell. Lot is nestled in quiet cul de sac close to The River Club amenity area. 5 bed/5.1 bath home. Master suite on main with spa like bath and his/her closet. Formal dining room/study, gourmet cook's kitchen over looking the great room and outside covered veranda with fireplace. Four additional bdrms upstairs all with private baths. Live in a community that meets expectations.

Summary

MLS #5741679
Price1425000
Bedrooms5
Bathrooms (Full)5
Square Footage4571
Square Footage SourceBuilder
StatusActive

Features

lilburn | Garage with a Detached Home | Gwinnett County GA

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Category Archives: lilburn

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2011

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, October, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of October 31st). Overall, there was about an 8.4 month supply of properties and 60 properties that closed (sold) in October.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (38) and an increase from September, 2011 (44 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 8.43 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).  And for October, Lilburn had one of the best month-to-month sales increases.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 306 listings, with about an 7.3 month supply with 53 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales increased markedly from last month (35), and were also up dramatically from last year (32).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 109 listings for sale, and about 12.1 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little. There were 7 sales compared to 6 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  It is one of the few market/price segments that had an increase in listings.  I’m not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August, September or October.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Three years ago I wrote about a quiet little map that the NAR (National Association of REALTORSS®) had built (and they’re still populating with data) showing the median home prices of various metro areas around the country.  It is pretty interesting to see median prices around the country and compare them with the prices here (or where you live).


View Metropolitan Sales Areas Q1 2011 in a larger map

There is a dark side, though.  That would be looking at the numbers in historical perspective.  Here is a quote from 3 years ago:

For the 2nd Quarter, the Atlanta area was at $158,300, which was down 9.8% from the 1st Quarter.

Now, the Median Home Price here is a little more challenging.  For the 1st Quarter this year the Median Home Price was $99,800, and that was down 9.4% from a year ago.  More importantly, it is down about 37% from three years ago.  I don’t have a complete set of data, but I suspect that the median price has dropped around 50% in Metro Atlanta.

One important note here is that this does NOT mean that the value of any particular house has dropped 50%, or that the average value of homes have dropped 50%.  There is NO mistaking that home prices have crashed and burned… then crashed some more.  But there has also been a shift in the last couple of years towards less expensive homes.

Be sure to keep an eye my local market reports for more specific data about individual areas of Gwinnett County.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, September, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of September 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.7 month supply of properties and 44 properties that closed (sold) in September.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (35) and a decrease from August, 2011 (48 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched up slightly, again.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 8.66 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 35 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased slightly from last month (37), and were up  slightly from last year (32).  We are sitting almost exactly where we were last year at this time.  That isn’t a terribly bad thing, although this segment needs to play catch up a little with some other areas of Gwinnett County.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 108 listings for sale, and about 12.5 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 9 sales compared to just 2 last year.  While it isn’t strong compared to some other areas, it is WAY better than last year at this time.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August or September.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Old photo of the estate Hollander Höfe (Höben)...

Image via Wikipedia

Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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