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Category Archives: lilburn

How to Read a Market Report…

A lot of real estate agents write them.  Some have a lot of information, others… not so much.  Some are well laid out and go past the numbers into interpretation.  Others have plenty of numbers, but they don’t even give any sort of scale to use for reference.

I try to give mine a sense of scale, as well as interpret what the numbers mean.  I also wait to post them… until the numbers are fairly solid (and even a few weeks later, the numbers might change a little bit…), but not so long as to make the report outdated as it is published.  Below is an excerpt from one of my market reports:

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there are 593 properties on the market (down from 612 last month). Overall, there is about an 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.4 last month). August had 83 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (636).  The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

So, let’s break it down.

  • 593 Properties… also showing the number of properties on the market the previous month.  Is it going up or down?  Which way SHOULD it be moving?
  • 7.3 month supply…  This is the Absorption Rate.  Here is a whole post explaining absorption rates, what they are and what they mean.  Balanced, in most real estate segments, is about 6.  Higher is a buyer’s market, lower is a seller’s market.  I also generally show the level of the previous month.
  • 83 sales…  and to put it in perspective, we also want to know how many sales there were last month AND how many for the same month last year.  Sometimes, in slower segments, we might look at the last three months of sales (combined) and compare those with the previous year.  For low volume segments, that will be a number that doesn’t jump all over as much and will give a better idea of market direction and strength.
  • Interpretation & Prediction…  I try to do a little of this for most segments of the market.  I track 7 different postal cities (not the city limits, but the mailing addresses) and each in 6 different price ranges.  That makes for a LOT of predictions and interpretation…  But I try to give what I think of each one… assuming there is enough data to get an idea of what is going on.
  • Something graphical…  My newest tool is a graphical representation (from Zillow) showing a history of the region.  Even more than the pinpoint data of the report, the simple graph gives the aerial view of what is happening.  However, it needs to be kept in perspective…  The beginnings of trend are pretty hard to spot on a long-term graph.

Hopefully this will help you get the most from my market reports…

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2011

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, August, 2011, indicates that there were 431 properties on the market (as of August 31st). Overall, there was about an 7.7 month supply of properties and 48 properties that closed (sold) in August.  It was an decrease from last year’s sales (51) and July, 2011 (56 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched up slightly.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.74 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago.
In the sub-$200k arena, there were 306 listings, with about an 6.9 month supply with 37 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased markedly from last month (48), and were slightly below last year (38).  This is the strongest that Lilburn has been for quite a while.  This is easily the strongest market condition for sellers in the last 2+ years (I only have full data back 2 years right now).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 114 listings for sale, and about 11.o months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 11 sales compared to 9 last year.  But, the last time we had an absorption rate under 11 months was in December of 2009.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 5.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2011

Dominique Wilkins during Euroleague semifinal ...

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, June, 2011, indicates that there were 454 properties on the market (as of June 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.5 month supply of properties and 63 properties that closed (sold) in June.  I had been looking for another increase in sales for June and it came through.  And it was an increase over last year’s sales (51) and May, 2011 (54 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down slightly.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 48 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales rose slightly from last month (41), but were more above last year (38).  The Absorption Rate dropped only slightly from 7.9 to 7.7 months of inventory.  This is even a slight improvement over the tax credit fueled buying of this time last year.  If the pace maintains for the next two months, it could mean that Lilburn, GA, is on the verge of a turn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 132 listings for sale, and about 11.o months of supply.  This segment has been quite weak for months, but has picked up a little strength.  May was a strong follow up to April, which was HUGE… 11 sales compared to just 9 last year.  June pulled down 14 sales, slightly above last year’s 13 homes sold.  If July stays strong (14-15 sales), this could signal a return to a more balanced segment… and Lilburn has been missing that.  (last month I said…) I’ll be looking for around 14 sales for June…  ;^ )

From $400k to $600k, there are just 8 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, and there was 1 sale in June.  It doesn’t seem like much, but this is a segment hasn’t posted that many months with back to back sales…  This is the first time sales have been sales posted four months in a row since 2009.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2011

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, May, 2011, indicates that there were 436 properties on the market (as of May 31st). Overall, there was about an 8.6 month supply of properties and 54 properties that closed (sold) in May.  I had been looking for an increase in sales for May and it came through.  And while April was an increase over last year’s sales (36), it was a decrease from March, 2011 (55 sales).  May, 2011, was up compared to both the previous month and the previous year.  The Absorption Rate notched down significantly.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 305 listings, with about an 7.9 month supply with 41 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales rose sharply from last month (32), but were only slightly above last year (40).  The Absorption Rate dropped slightly from 9.6 to 7.9 months of inventory.  This is even an improvement over the tax credit fueled buying of this time last year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 118 listings for sale, and about 11.4 months of supply.  This segment has been quite weak for months, but has picked up a little strength.  Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 in November didn’t help. Nine sales in January was HUGE. But, February was back down below last year.  March was strong last year, but a little stronger this year (9 v 8 in 2010).  May was a strong follow up to April, which was HUGE… 11 sales compared to just 9 last year.  If June stays strong, this could signal a return to a more balanced segment… and Lilburn has been missing that.  I’ll be looking for around 14 sales for June…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 9 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 5.4 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales.  It doesn’t seem like much, but this is a segment hasn’t posted that many months with back to back sales…  This is the first time sales have been sales posted three months in a row since 2009.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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The Gwinnett County Market is a Little Weird Right Now…

DSCN0561
Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

I have been pulling Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Data, and I’m not done with it yet.  But, I have been seeing a few things.

  • Listings are down markedly from where they would normally be.  This can be either a positive or negative, depending on your outlook.
    • On the Plus Side, fewer listings means that Absorption Rates are better.  There is less inventory to get sold… it tilts the table back toward sellers.  It has been largely tilted toward buyers for quite a while.
    • On the Minus Side, it shows that there is pessimism in the market on the side of sellers.  They aren’t confident about the market.  That lack of confidence has carried over to buyers… sales are also slowing.
  • Sales are down… like I just mentioned.  Even though Absorption Rates make the market look better… the sales just aren’t there.
  • Results are mixed.  There are a few cities that are doing well… and there are a few price segments that are doing quite well.  Others are VERY weak.
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