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Category Archives: sugar hill

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00
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Old photo of the estate Hollander Höfe (Höben)...

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Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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How to Read a Market Report…

Monday, 10 October 2011 08:00
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A lot of real estate agents write them.  Some have a lot of information, others… not so much.  Some are well laid out and go past the numbers into interpretation.  Others have plenty of numbers, but they don’t even give any sort of scale to use for reference.

I try to give mine a sense of scale, as well as interpret what the numbers mean.  I also wait to post them… until the numbers are fairly solid (and even a few weeks later, the numbers might change a little bit…), but not so long as to make the report outdated as it is published.  Below is an excerpt from one of my market reports:

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, August, 2011 indicate that there are 593 properties on the market (down from 612 last month). Overall, there is about an 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.4 last month). August had 83 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (636).  The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

So, let’s break it down.

  • 593 Properties… also showing the number of properties on the market the previous month.  Is it going up or down?  Which way SHOULD it be moving?
  • 7.3 month supply…  This is the Absorption Rate.  Here is a whole post explaining absorption rates, what they are and what they mean.  Balanced, in most real estate segments, is about 6.  Higher is a buyer’s market, lower is a seller’s market.  I also generally show the level of the previous month.
  • 83 sales…  and to put it in perspective, we also want to know how many sales there were last month AND how many for the same month last year.  Sometimes, in slower segments, we might look at the last three months of sales (combined) and compare those with the previous year.  For low volume segments, that will be a number that doesn’t jump all over as much and will give a better idea of market direction and strength.
  • Interpretation & Prediction…  I try to do a little of this for most segments of the market.  I track 7 different postal cities (not the city limits, but the mailing addresses) and each in 6 different price ranges.  That makes for a LOT of predictions and interpretation…  But I try to give what I think of each one… assuming there is enough data to get an idea of what is going on.
  • Something graphical…  My newest tool is a graphical representation (from Zillow) showing a history of the region.  Even more than the pinpoint data of the report, the simple graph gives the aerial view of what is happening.  However, it needs to be kept in perspective…  The beginnings of trend are pretty hard to spot on a long-term graph.

Hopefully this will help you get the most from my market reports…

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Monday, 26 September 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , August, 2011indicate that there are 202 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.0 month supply.  There were 33 sales, compared to 45 last month and 15 last August.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is partly due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 149 listings, with about 4.5 months supply.  There were 31 sales this August, 2½ times the number from last year for the same time (12).  Last month there were 36 sales.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 48 listings for sale, and about 11.1 months of supply.  Last August there was an 11.5 month supply.  Last August there were 3 sales, this year there were 2.  Last month had 8.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 3 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 2.25 months, but with 5 sales since last September, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  I hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, June 2011

Monday, 01 August 2011 08:00
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DSCN0570

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , June, 2011, indicate that there are 217 properties on the market (238 in May). Overall, there is about an 8.5 month supply of properties (9.9 last month).  There were 38 sales, compared to 45 last month and 31 last June.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a weak month dropping off… and a reasonably strong month of sales for June.  Unless we drive off a cliff, next months AR should look fairly good, too.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 148 listings (164 for May), with under 5.1 month supply (6.9 last month).  There were 32 sales this June, 23 last year for the same time.  Inventories have been rising fluid, rising and falling (down 3 months in a row, though).  Normally, this time of year we see inventories ramping up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 60 listings for sale (64 last month), and about 18 months of supply (12.8 in May).  This segment really took a beating.  Last June there were 8 sales, this year there were 3.  Last month had 4.  This is one of the weakest segments in the county.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market (same as last month). The absorption rate is 6 months (72 months in May).  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  There were 3 sales in June… as many as all of last year.  Any more sales and this will be the best in years at this level.  Still not great, though.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range (there were 4 last month).  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Tuesday, 05 July 2011 08:16
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , May, 2011indicate that there are 238 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.9 month supply of properties.  There were 43 sales, compared to 20 last month and 25 last May.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a weak month dropping off… and a strong month of sales for May.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 164 listings, with under 6.9 months supply.  There were 39 sales this May, three time number last year for the same time.  Last month there were 17 sales.  Inventories have been rising fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories ramping up.  Sales have been flat or slightly down until this month… BIG jump.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 64 listings for sale, and about 12.8 months of supply.  Last May there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It is also one of the few price/area segments that had an increase in listings and an increase in the Absorption Rate (AR).  Last May there were 10 sales, this year there were 4.  Last month had 3.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 72 months, but with 1 sale last September, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  I hope to see some activity in this segment in June.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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