Category Archives: suwanee

Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

Thursday, 10 February 2011 08:20

Written by Lane Bailey

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old photo of peachtree street, atlanta, GA

Image via Wikipedia

I love watching the news… but when they talk about the real estate market, I cringe. I like to hear the national numbers, but I also know that they are just a framework for a smaller discussion. Yep… a smaller discussion.

It matters what the overall market is doing, but it’s not nearly as important as what is happening in your neighborhood. It matters what is happening in Georgia, and the Atlanta Metro market, but not nearly as much as what is happening in your specific city. Real estate prices and demand react to specific local issues much more than to national trends. In fact, the national trend is just a compilation of local and hyper-local trends. What the national market does is create a headwind or a tailwind. That’s about it.

Here locally, we look at things like…

changing employment statistics
companies relocating into or out of the area
school performance and trends
tax burdens
quality of local governmental services
proximity to recreation and entertainment
ease of movement (commuting, shopping, etc)

As we see these things change, we see the market move in one direction or another. A prime example at the moment is the City of Atlanta schools issue. It is possible that the Atlanta City Schools could lose their accreditation. If that were to happen, it would drive down the price of most of the homes served by those schools. The price would be driven down because there would be a lack of demand on the part of buyers, combined with an increase in supply as sellers seek to move to districts without the same problems.

Gwinnett County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Georgia, below the national average. But there is also a tremendous overhead of foreclosure action. We also have one of the highest performance school systems in the region… and reasonably low tax rates.

The market in Miami or Las Vegas doesn’t have an effect on what is happening in Georiga, much less what is going on with real estate in Gwinnett County.

Gwinnett Homestretch Program

Thursday, 03 February 2011 08:05

Written by Lane Bailey

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Ken Cook and I are working with Gwinnett Homstretch Down Payment Assistance. As a buyer, you need to have $1000 going into the purchase, but Gwinnett Homestretch may contribute up to $7,500, if you qualify. There are a few things to keep in mind:

It is paid as a 0% loan, which will be forgiven after 5 years of using the property as your principal residence. In effect, that makes it a grant… there are no payments due during the 5 years.
You will be required to complete an 8-hour counseling class from a HUD approved Housing Counseling Agency.
Total household income must not exceed HUD lmits, based on household size. Households range from 1-8 people.
- 2 people – HUD max is $46,000
- 4 people – HUD max is $57,450
- There are different income maximums for other household sizes.
Investors are NOT eligible for this program.
The home MUST pass an inspection by Gwinnett County PRIOR to closing.
Purchase Price may NOT exceed $200,000.

There are other requirements, such as being able to qualify for a mortgage. Contact Ken and I for details.

We’d love to help you buy a home. There are great deals on the market right now, and interest rates are exceptional.

For more info, click here. There are other Down Payment Assistance programs available around the Metro Atlanta area.

Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report… November, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Schools Get $1M Scholarship (gwinnettgarageguy.com)

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Saturday, 22 January 2011 08:07

Written by Lane Bailey

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: Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2010 indicate that there are 548 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.8 month supply of properties. There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June. Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 165 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 9.9 month supply. In June, there was a 4.8 month supply. Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed… This is one of the rare segments that actually bumped in November, rather than December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 249 listings for sale, and 9 months of supply. Sales for December 2010 were 25 compared with 22 for the same period in 2009. Still weak, but with the decrease in listings, leading to an improvement in the Absorption Rate. For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year. November continued the (poor) trend with 27 sales v 41 last year.

: Image via Wikipedia

From $400k to $600k, there are 71 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 19.4 months. There were 4 sales this year… dwarfed by the 7 last year. Even looking at the three month average, there were 11 sales this year and 24 for the same period last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 26 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent. Looking at one month makes the numbers jump. For the last three months, sales were 3… For the sale time last year, the sales were 7.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 3+ years of inventory on the market. There has only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April, May and December). Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 18 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Oct-Dec this year and 2 last year). But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 37 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (gwinnettgarageguy.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010

Monday, 20 December 2010 08:18

Written by Lane Bailey

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: Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, November, 2010 indicate that there are 582 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.9 month supply of properties. There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June. Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 156 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 8.5 month supply. In June, there was a 4.8 month supply. Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed… October sales were down from 27 last year to 22 this year. For November, there were 15 sales this year and 21 last year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 285 listings for sale, and 9.8 months of supply. Sales for September 2010 were 30 compared with 39 for the same period in 2009. Still weak, but much better than last month. For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year. November continued the (poor) trend with 26 sales v 41 last year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 75 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 18.7 months. There were 4 sales this year… dwarfed by the 10 last year. Even looking at the three month average, there were 12 sales this year and 26 for the same period last year.

: Image via Wikipedia

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 28 listings, with about a 42 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent. Looking at one month makes the numbers jump. For the last three months, sales were 2… For the sale time last year, the sales were 9.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 4+ years of inventory on the market. There has only been 3 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April and May). Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 25 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 18.8 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Sept-Nov both this year and last). But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 45 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (gwinnettgarageguy.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (gwinnettgarageguy.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Zestimate Accuracy in the Atlanta GA Area…

Thursday, 09 December 2010 08:54

Written by Lane Bailey

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: Image via Wikipedia

Ever since they were first introduced, Zillow’s ‘Zestimates’ have created a stir. Some herald them, while other decry them. But, Zillow’s Zestimates are a great tool for homeowners and those looking at buying, whether they are familiar with the area or not.

But the Zestimates DO have a limit. They aren’t terribly accurate. On the good side, though, Zillow is nice enough to tell us how accurate they are for some areas. But, even the accuracy may need to be interpreted.

Let’s see if we can shed some light on Zestimate accuracy for the Atlanta, GA, area. For the sake of this example let’s assume that the Zestimate is exactly $200,000. This is a nice, round number that makes calculations easier.

Median error for the Atlanta area is 15.3%. That means that half of the homes have an error of less than 15.3%, while half have an error higher than 15.3%. In other words, half of the homes that would be valued at $200,000 are worth between $169,400 and $230,600. the other half are worth more than $230,600 or less than $164,900 (should be around 25% too high, 25% too low).
About 58% are actually worth between $160,000 and $240,000.
About 36% are worth between $180,000 and $220,000.
Only 19% are worth between $190,000 and $210,000.

The bottom line is that Zestimates, in the Atlanta area, are pretty rough. There is only a 1 in 5 chance of the home’s value being within 5% of the Zestimate. In other words, it is not a precision tool…

In my experience, most sellers are sure that the Zestimate is too low, and most buyers are convinced it is too high. It is just as likely to be one as the other…

But Zestimates ARE still useful…

Like any tool, they need to be used the right way. My Zillow contacts (and I have met and enjoyed talking with several of the fine folks at Zillow) have stated that the distribution of Zestimate error is just as likely to be high as low. Look at the target in the graphic. None of the shots hit the center of the target… but the AVERAGE of them is quite close. And the same holds true of Zestimates.

Taken as a whole, when looking at larger areas (the larger, the better), they provide a very accurate look at the broader market. But, as we narrow down to more specific areas, they get cloudier and cloudier.

Wayback Wednesday… Median Price Comparison… Ouch! (lanebailey.com)

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Category Archives: suwanee

Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

Gwinnett Homestretch Program

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010

Zestimate Accuracy in the Atlanta GA Area…

But Zestimates ARE still useful…

Custom Listings

Browse Listings

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Follow Me on Pinterest

Category Archives: suwanee

Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

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Gwinnett Homestretch Program

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2010

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010

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Zestimate Accuracy in the Atlanta GA Area…

But Zestimates ARE still useful…

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