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Category Archives: market report

Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??

Wednesday, 25 April 2012 08:00
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Photo credit: planspark)

Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).

How can these two stories be squared?

Honestly, I don’t think that they can be…  and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers.  Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.

Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys.  Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties.  By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.

Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices.  The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up.  If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.

Of course, nothing is perfect.

The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced.  And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda.  Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.

My take?  I don’t think we are quite ready to recover.  Yet.  I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market.  And that shakes out to local areas…

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 23 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , March, 2012 indicates that there are 153 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.2 month supply.  There were 26 sales, compared to 19 last month and 23 last March.  The Absorption Rate (AR) increase, largely due to the weaker sales the last two months.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 108 listings, with about 5.3 months supply.  There were 25 sales this March, significantly than last year for the same time (15).  There were 18 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month there was a slight decrease.  We should have had a major inventory bump over the last two months.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 40 listings for sale, and about 30 months of supply.  Last March there was an 14.8 month supply.  There were 8 sales, this year there were 1.  Last month also had 1 sale.  This was VERY weak.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 2 home on the market. The absorption rate was around 4 months, but with 3 sales in November (and those being the only sales since July), it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, March 2012

Sunday, 22 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, March, 2012, indicates that there were 344 properties on the market (as of March 31st).  Overall, there was about an 7.4 month supply of properties and 51 properties that closed (sold) in March.  It was a decrease from last year’s sales (55) but an increase from February (43 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.37 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a year ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 237 listings, with about an 5.8 month supply with 41 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales increased solidly from last month (36), and were also down ever so slightly from last year (43).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 96 listings for sale, and about 18.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  It is stalling a bit again.  There were 9 sales compared to 9 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  But the decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It was strengthening, just not as quickly as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 21 months (one year average).  There was 1 sales in March.  It was the first sale in the segment since last July.  Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 16 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, March, 2012 indicate that there were 420 properties on the market (down from 443 last month).  Overall, there was about a 6.2 month supply of properties (down from 7.3 last month).  March had 100 sales.  Compared to March, 2011 (53), this year was a stronger.  Inventory was down compared to 2011 (621).  There were 64 sales last month.  This is the first time that I have noted decreasing inventories this time of year.  Combined with the increasing sales, especially at the entry level, the market is looking strong.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 115 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 43.9 month supply (133 and 4.3, respectively last year).  This March’s sales were WAY up, at 42 (19 last year, 30 last month).  This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  And one of the strongest in the whole county.  The next level up is coming up fast, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 195 listings for sale (299 last year, 195 last month), and 6.9 months of supply.  Sales in March, 2012 were 42 (27 in February), compared with 28 for the same period in 2011.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  And for the last few months, despite there being more listings in this segment, the under $200k segment has had more sales.

From $400k to $600k, there were 59 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was at 9.3 months (12.4 in February).  There were 10 sales in March (4 in February)… up by 5 compared to last March.  Looking at the three month average, there were 19 sales this year and 11 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but stayed sort of weak this month.  I was looking for close to 12 sales for March… we pulled out 10.  That isn’t bad.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 21 listings, with about a 10.5 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 6… For the same time last year, the sales were 3.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 5 homes listed and 15 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some more sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 25 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 18.8 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 for December, 2 for January and 2 for March).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 26 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Gwinnett Market Impressions…

Friday, 06 April 2012 08:00
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrenceville GA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I won’t have the March sales figures for Gwinnett County for a few more days, but I do have a few thoughts on what I have seen from the Listing numbers I pulled down on the 1st of April.

Listings are down.  And that is weird.  VERY weird.  Not just down year over year… that isn’t weird at all.  But they are actually down from month to month.  And in this market, that doesn’t happen (although I can’t really say that now… because it just happened).  Looking back over the last few years, listings tended to bottom out in January… March would be up over February, April over March.  We’ve been going down for the last two months instead.

Of course, I still hear the media and a LOT of other real estate agents telling me about the “coming wave of foreclosures” just waiting for the banks to decide that they should release them.  If they had the “shadow inventory” everyone is talking about, they would be releasing it.  For this market, there wouldn’t be a better time.  Listings are down and this is when sales are generally moving up.

Looking back at the last year only confirms this.  We’ve seen Absorption Rates under 6 months in most of the segments with the dropping inventories.  (Translation: This isn’t a shocker…).

What does all of this mean?

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County
Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think we are seeing a bottom for some segments… specifically homes priced under $200,000 to $400,000 (I don’t know exactly where the line is… but homes under $200k are solid right now… homes over $400k are looking pretty shaky still).  Could prices erode further? Absolutely.  But I think that without a change for the worse in the economy, we are probably at the bottom of those properties here in Gwinnett County.  The higher price ranges might be bottoming or might not… but I have a lot less certainty over $400k.

There is actual competition for properties at the entry level.  Multiple offers and homes selling over list price.  The homes that are priced “right” are getting snapped up.  Over-priced houses are still languishing on the market, though.  But a couple of years ago, there was hardly a “priced right”.

 

Now we just need to get the higher priced segments moving again…

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