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Category Archives: market report

Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket?

Thursday, 17 February 2011 08:45
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A Penske Porsche RS Spyder leading a Dyson Por...

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Let’s just assume for a minute that you are sitting there in your office or at home and you have $1,000,000 just dying to be invested in a new (to you) home.  And then let’s assume for a few minutes that you’d love to do that here in Gwinnett County, GA.  What can you get for a million bucks here in Gwinnett?

There are a few homes listed for around $1,000,000 in Gwinnett County, GA.  I limited it to homes that were priced within $1,000 of the magic number.  The six houses all came in between $999,000 and $999,900.

Three of the homes are located in Chateau Elan, in Braselton, GA.  You can’t really get much further north in the county, but it is a truly magnificent area.  Chateau Elan is built around the winery of the same name started by Donald Panoz.  That would be the same Donald Panoz that owns Road Atlanta, just a little north of the winery, and the American Le Mans Series in sports car racing.  There is also an Inn, event facility and several golf courses.

main exterior

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The other three homes are a little more spread out around the county, but all are near the I-85 corridor.  They are in Buford, Duluth and Suwanee.  This particular Buford home isn’t in a subdivision, but could have easily been a home on Lake Lanier.  The homes in Buford that are on the lake are on what is called “South Lake”, which is the biggest area of the lake.  There are some exceptional homes in this area.  Duluth is home to the Sugarloaf Country Club, where many of Atlanta’s sports stars and celebrities live.  The home that is currently in that narrow price range is in another neighborhood called Sweet Bottom Plantation.  Sweet Bottom Plantation is nestled on the banks of the Chattahoochee River, with many homes having styling reminiscent of New Orleans, LA, or Charleston, SC.  Our Suwanee home is located in Belmore Estates.  Suwanee is also home to The River Club and Bear’s Best Estates.  It also bleeds over into Forsyth County and a little bit in Fulton County.

Here in Gwinnett County, GA, homes priced at $1,000,000 are pretty cool. That buys a LOT of house; 6,000 to 9,000 square feet.  They have terrace level rooms, finished to very high standards.  Three car garages are a minimum, with 4+ being more common.  Most of the homes have 5 or 6 bedrooms, but every once in a while, a 4 bedroom home will sneak in.  Most of the homes have swimming pools on the property, as well.  Only the home not in a subdivision had a significant amount of land, 14 acres.  The others were all generally under one acre.  Hardwood floors, central vacs, stone and brick, updated kitchens and high end cabinetry and appliances are pretty standard.

Right now, in Gwinnett County, the luxury market is pretty much buyer driven, too.  We do see some foreclosures and short sales, but a larger percentage of buyers at this level paid cash than at lower price points.  That doesn’t mean that there aren’t deals, though. Homes that are selling in this price range are often homes that would have sold for upwards of $1.5M just a few years ago.

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Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

Thursday, 10 February 2011 08:20
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old photo of peachtree street, atlanta, GA

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I love watching the news… but when they talk about the real estate market, I cringe.  I like to hear the national numbers, but I also know that they are just a framework for a smaller discussion.  Yep… a smaller discussion.

It matters what the overall market is doing, but it’s not nearly as important as what is happening in your neighborhood.  It matters what is happening in Georgia, and the Atlanta Metro market, but not nearly as much as what is happening in your specific city.  Real estate prices and demand react to specific local issues much more than to national trends.  In fact, the national trend is just a compilation of local and hyper-local trends.  What the national market does is create a headwind or a tailwind.  That’s about it.

Here locally, we look at things like…

  • changing employment statistics
  • companies relocating into or out of the area
  • school performance and trends
  • tax burdens
  • quality of local governmental services
  • proximity to recreation and entertainment
  • ease of movement (commuting, shopping, etc)

As we see these things change, we see the market move in one direction or another.  A prime example at the moment is the City of Atlanta schools issue.  It is possible that the Atlanta City Schools could lose their accreditation.  If that were to happen, it would drive down the price of most of the homes served by those schools.  The price would be driven down because there would be a lack of demand on the part of buyers, combined with an increase in supply as sellers seek to move to districts without the same problems.

Gwinnett County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Georgia, below the national average.  But there is also a tremendous overhead of foreclosure action.  We also have one of the highest performance school systems in the region… and reasonably low tax rates.

The market in Miami or Las Vegas doesn’t have an effect on what is happening in Georiga, much less what is going on with real estate in Gwinnett County.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Thursday, 27 January 2011 08:33
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Chattahoochee River in Norcross, Georgia
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Market stats for Norcross GA, November, 2010 indicate that there were 365 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10.2 month supply of properties. November was a thrashing… 30 v 47 in 2009.  December was better, but still only 35 sales for Dec 2010 compared to 41 the year prior.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 219 listings, with about 7.4 month supply.  Sales are down slightly from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (25 v 28).  But the segment is still looking pretty strong, despite the weakness in July and September and relative weakness of sales in October, November and even December.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 111 listings for sale, and about 27.8 months of supply.  Sales have been down and slowing for the last few months.  November was a really bad month (1 v 11)… but December was still down, 7 v 10 sales.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 18.6 months. Much of the perception of strong Absorption Rates is from shrinking inventories.  Actual sales have been mostly decelerating.  I expect to see the numbers move the other way in the next few months.  But, for the record, Sales for December were at 3 for both 2009 and 2010.

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
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In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate (6 month average) is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales this year, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there are only 2 listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were no homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 2 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There have been two sales in the last year (Apr 10 and Oct 10).

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Tuesday, 25 January 2011 08:51
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Buford Dam on the Chattahoochee River in north...
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Market stats for Buford, GA, November, 2010 indicate that there were 566 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 10.2 month supply of properties.  December was slightly above last year (62 v 52 for 2009).  But it was also a pretty substantial bump from November (44 sales).  There were 83 sales in June and an Absorption Rate under 8.5 months.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 325 listings, with a 9.1 month supply.  Again, this is the largest price segment in this area, so being up by 10 sales over last year (41 v 31) strengthens the whole market area.  It is also a pretty nice increase over November (29 sales).

Between $200k and $400k, there were 193 listings for sale, and about  11.1 months of supply.  While there was a slight increase in sales compared to November (16 v 13), it was also a decrease from last year (19).  Strangely, this segment has been improving for the last four months.  Much of that is due to decreased inventory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 27 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 20.1 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 4 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  There were 2 sales in November, 2010… and 3 this year.  Last month’s 57 months of inventory looks like an anomaly.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings.  Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 3 sales in this segment this year… the last was this past November.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 3 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until this month (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than 50% compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 11 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009… still…

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Monday, 24 January 2011 08:24
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , December, 2010 indicate that there are 241 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 12.7 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July, but inventories have been rising, and along with it, the number of months of inventory (that is the wrong way…)

for Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 168 listings, with under 9.7 months supply.  Sales are also about 3x of the level last year, 25 v 8 last December.  But, for the last three months, that only puts sales up by 3 v last year.  And this segment is doing WAY better than the next one up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 63 listings for sale, and about 17.2 months of supply.  As recently as May, there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It had a slight bump in November, but drove off a cliff in December.  There were only 3 sales v 11 last year.  In fact, for the last three months, there were only 11 sales v 27 last year.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 36 months, but with 1 sale in the last 6 months, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There have only been 3 sales in this segment this year.  Last year there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 18 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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