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Category Archives: news

Foreclosures v. the Rest of the Market

Monday, 05 March 2012 08:00
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RISMedia just posted a story a few days ago citing stats that 24% of all real estate sales nationwide are foreclosure.  That is down slightly from 26% in the 4th quarter of 2010.  And a little more striking piece of news was that short sales were up by 15% from a year ago while REO (foreclosure) sales were actually down 12% from a year ago.

As a real estate agent, I look at the stats a little different than others might.  To begin with, I would have thought that the number would have been higher.  Of course, there are local variations… and I think that in Gwinnett County, there is a significantly higher percentage of sales that are foreclosure related.

Looking at local listings, in many of my market area segments, more than half of the available listings are foreclosure or related (pre-foreclosure and short-sale or institutionally owned).  And a higher percentage of the sales would be foreclosure related… often because the prices are more attractive.

But overall, I think that this bodes well for the overall health of the local real estate market.  As foreclosed inventory depletes, more normalcy can be established in the market.

Of course, if you are a buyer, that means that you might want to jump in while the prices are still depressed and the mortgage rates are bouncing on the bottom.  Feel free to give me a call to take a look.  You can see my local market reports here.

 

Lane
garagehome [at] gmail [dot] com
678-200-5895

 

 

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, January 2012

Friday, 02 March 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, January, 2012 indicate that there were 241 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.7 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  January saw 40 sales, ever so slightly below the 41 for January, 2011, and well under the 52 for December.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 140 listings, with about 3.4 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (33 v 32 in Jan11 & 46 Dec11).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At barely over 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 67 listings for sale, and about 14.4 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 6 sales were slightly up compared to last year’s 5 sales, but solidly up from last month’s 4 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  Coming off of a reasonably strong summer selling season is why this segment looks like it is weakening.

From $400k to $600k, there were 26 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 15.6 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  January’s 1 sale was down from 2 the month before and from last year’s 3 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November (0 in December or January), obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure.  The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2012

Monday, 27 February 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2012 indicated that there were 449 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 9.8 month supply of properties.  Sales in January were 30, slightly down from 40 a year earlier.  But, sales were way down compared to the prior month (57).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 180 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 7.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in January were down this year v last year (13 v 23), and way down compared to last month (35).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county… but it has decelerated again this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 131 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving mostly the wrong way (up) since August.  Sales were up compared to January, 2011 (10 v 7) but down compared to last month (14).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 8.1 months.  January brought in 4 sales. There were 6 last year and 5 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 9.9 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for January… 4 for January last year.  Month to month sales were actually up (3 v 2).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sales recorded for January was flat with last year’s 0 and from the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 36 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 54 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 2 sales in the Nov-Jan period this year, and 3 for the same time last year. Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 0 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2012

Friday, 24 February 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, January, 2012, indicate that there were 1151 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 4.9 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for January were at 148, so 213 sales was a excellent increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… but not quite better than last month (264 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 983 listings, with about a 4.4 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from January 2011 (205 v 121).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.41 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down from 247 in December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 147 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 7 sales for January, 2012 were down from the 18 from last year.  They were down significantly from the 16 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for January.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 17 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 12.8 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 0 sales for January, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There were 2 sales in January, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 two months ago).  While the long term trend was looking better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 6.0 months of supply, again. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in January. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 0 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, January 2012

Monday, 20 February 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Buford, GA, January, 2012 indicate that there were 417 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 7.0 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 52 sales for January, way down from 83 last month but strikingly up from the 27 sales last January (2011).  It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but it is much better than it has been.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 246 listings, with a 5.9 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were down from last month (42 v 53), but huge compared to last year (18 sales in January, 2011).  But, the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a slight seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 126 listings for sale, and about 8.6 months of supply.  The 8 sales recorded were well down from the 25 from last month and up a bit from the 6 sales last year for January.  This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is one of the stronger $200k-$400k segments in the county.

From $400k to $600k, there were 24 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 9.0 Months.  There have been 8 sales in the last 3 months (3 sales for November, 4 sales for December and 1 for January).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the next two months I was looking for…  December is back in the right direction, and the drop in listings certainly helps.  January certainly wasn’t the month to call a recovery.  Just for comparison, there were 5 sales in the Nov.-Jan. period in 2010/2011.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings.  Absorption Rate is 9 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 homes has made things look less slow… but there were 4 sales in this segment last year… and 1 sale in January.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 5 homes listed.  But, with no sales in the last year (2011), obviously trends are hardly definable.  Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 10 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June. So, we have 40 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties.  The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town.  It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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