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Category Archives: news

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Wednesday, 02 November 2011 08:00
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Three years ago I wrote about a quiet little map that the NAR (National Association of REALTORSS®) had built (and they’re still populating with data) showing the median home prices of various metro areas around the country.  It is pretty interesting to see median prices around the country and compare them with the prices here (or where you live).


View Metropolitan Sales Areas Q1 2011 in a larger map

There is a dark side, though.  That would be looking at the numbers in historical perspective.  Here is a quote from 3 years ago:

For the 2nd Quarter, the Atlanta area was at $158,300, which was down 9.8% from the 1st Quarter.

Now, the Median Home Price here is a little more challenging.  For the 1st Quarter this year the Median Home Price was $99,800, and that was down 9.4% from a year ago.  More importantly, it is down about 37% from three years ago.  I don’t have a complete set of data, but I suspect that the median price has dropped around 50% in Metro Atlanta.

One important note here is that this does NOT mean that the value of any particular house has dropped 50%, or that the average value of homes have dropped 50%.  There is NO mistaking that home prices have crashed and burned… then crashed some more.  But there has also been a shift in the last couple of years towards less expensive homes.

Be sure to keep an eye my local market reports for more specific data about individual areas of Gwinnett County.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Friday, 28 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, September, 2011 indicate that there are 579 properties on the market (down from 593 last month). Overall, there is about an 6.7 month supply of properties (down from 7.3 last month). September had 79 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (598). The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months. Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 179 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.8 month supply (144 and 8.3, respectively last year). This August’s sales were OK, at 28 (just 18 last year). This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county. As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months. I’d like to see sales approaching 35 for the next couple of months to call this segment strong.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 274 listings for sale (311 last year), and 6.7 months of supply. Sales in September, 2011 were 42 (32 in August), compared with 30 for the same period in 2010. Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months. I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 67 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 6.5 months (6.5 in August). There were 5 sales in September (15 in August)… flat compared to last September. Looking at the three month average, there were 31 sales this year and 26 for the same period last year. This segment has gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but for the last few years has dropped off pretty heavily as school started. I’d be quite happy with 10 sales over each of the next two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 23 listings, with about a 6.3 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 11… For the same time last year, the sales were 10. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, this has become the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. Over the next couple of months, look for 2-3 sales a month on average.  On track so far…

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 9 homes listed and 9.0 months of inventory on the market. There were only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 27 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 27 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. 

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 24 October 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, September, 2011 indicated that there were 488 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.4 month supply of properties.  Sales in September were 66, Well up from 38 a year earlier.  But, sales weredown compared to the prior month (86).  Duluth has been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 186 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for September were up sharply this year v last year (46 v 13), but down compared to August, 2011 (51).  This is much better than Gwinnett county as a whole.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 137 listings for sale, and about 7.2 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were way down compared to September, 2010 (12v 9).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is doing better than average…

From $400k to $600k, there were 59 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 11.8 months.  September brought in 2 sales.  There were 13 last year and 5 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, and seemingly getting weaker.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 44 listings, with about 9.3 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for September… 0 for September last year.  Month to month sales slid (3 v 5).  After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, and it has strengthened some this month.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 17.3 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sale recorded for September was tied by last year’s 0 and behind the 1 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but declining inventories had made the market look stronger until this month.

Above $1m, there were 39 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 13 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 9 sales in the Jul-Sep period this year, and the same for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2011

Friday, 21 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, September, 2011, indicate that there were 1412 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 5.5 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for September were at 163, so 243 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year. Coupled with the solid decrease in inventory, things are looking great. Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… slightly less than last month… but just slightly.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1194 listings, with about an 5.0 month supply of homes. Sales were way up from September 2010 (228 v 151). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 5.02 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.  I got one strong follow up… if we can keep it up for October, I will be a happy guy.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 188 listings for sale, and about 12.8 months of supply. Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again. With an strong at the segment down was, this one was weak, again.  The 11 sales for September, 2011 were down from the 12 from last year. Sales should have been closer to 25 units for September.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 24 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 9 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  July saw 5 sales and August saw none, so even though there were 3 sales for September, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June.  There were 0 sales in September, 2010.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 7.5 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were only 2 sales in the last three months.  The only saving grace is low inventory. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there is 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 17 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, September, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of September 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.7 month supply of properties and 44 properties that closed (sold) in September.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (35) and a decrease from August, 2011 (48 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched up slightly, again.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 8.66 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 35 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased slightly from last month (37), and were up  slightly from last year (32).  We are sitting almost exactly where we were last year at this time.  That isn’t a terribly bad thing, although this segment needs to play catch up a little with some other areas of Gwinnett County.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 108 listings for sale, and about 12.5 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 9 sales compared to just 2 last year.  While it isn’t strong compared to some other areas, it is WAY better than last year at this time.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August or September.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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