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Category Archives: news

Duluth, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Monday, 19 September 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, August, 2011 indicated that there were 514 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.9 month supply of properties.  Sales in August were 86, compared to 71 a year earlier.  Sales were dwell up compared to both the prior year and the prior month.  Duluth is slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole.In the Under $200k arena, there were 211 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 5.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for August were up sharply this year v last year (51 v 28), and compared to July, 2011 (33).  This is slightly better than Gwinnett county as a whole.
Between $200k and $400k, there are 134 listings for sale, and about 6.9 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were way down compared to August, 2010 (21 v 25).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is doing pretty well…

From $400k to $600k, there were 53 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 10.6 months.  August brought in 5 sales.  There were 6 last year and 8 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 47 listings, with about 12.8 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for August… 6 for August last year.  Month to month sales slid (5 v 8).  After June’s performance (0 sales), I hadn’t been holding out that much hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, but it still isn’t great.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 22 homes listed and approximately 13.2 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for August was dwarfed by last year’s 3 and by the 3 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but declining inventories have made the market look stronger.

Above $1m, there were 47 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 15.7 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 9 sales in the Jun-Aug period this year, and the same for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, August 2011

Friday, 16 September 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, August, 2011, indicate that there were 1424 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 5.3 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for August were at 180, so 269 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year. Coupled with the solid decrease in inventory, things are looking great. Normally at this time of year we should be seeing strong sales, but they start weakening in September.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1208 listings, with about an 4.9 month supply of homes. Sales were way up from August 2010 (250 v 155). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.9 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.  I will be looking for a strong follow-up, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 182 listings for sale, and about 10.1 months of supply. Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again. With an strong at the segment down was, this one was weak.  The 19 sales for August, 2011 were down from the 24 from last year. Sales should have been closer to 25 or 30 units for August.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory, here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 28 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 14 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  July saw 5 sales, so even though there were 0 sales for August, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June.  There were also 0 sales in August, 2010.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last three months.  The only saving grace is low inventory. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there is 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2011

Monday, 12 September 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, August, 2011, indicates that there were 431 properties on the market (as of August 31st). Overall, there was about an 7.7 month supply of properties and 48 properties that closed (sold) in August.  It was an decrease from last year’s sales (51) and July, 2011 (56 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched up slightly.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.74 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago.
In the sub-$200k arena, there were 306 listings, with about an 6.9 month supply with 37 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased markedly from last month (48), and were slightly below last year (38).  This is the strongest that Lilburn has been for quite a while.  This is easily the strongest market condition for sellers in the last 2+ years (I only have full data back 2 years right now).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 114 listings for sale, and about 11.o months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 11 sales compared to 9 last year.  But, the last time we had an absorption rate under 11 months was in December of 2009.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 5.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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It’s About the Jobs…

Friday, 09 September 2011 08:00
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Every time I say this, I annoy a lot of my real estate friends…  Real estate is NOT the solution to the economy.  It is a symptom.  Nothing more.

To put it simply, People without jobs are NOT buying homes.  People that are worried about their jobs are NOT buying homes.  and as long as those people aren’t buying homes, people that DO want to “move up” can’t… they need to sell their current homes.  As I write this, the unemployment rate is around 9%.  But, the BLS also says that the “real” unemployment rate (including people that are not filing for unemployment anymore) is closer to 17%.

And while I tend not to get too political on this blog, I will make a couple of statements…

  • Attacking job producers, like Gibson Guitars, is NOT going ot make entrepreneurs take the risks that they need to take in order to start or expand their businesses.  (If you didn’t know, they are not allowed by the government to import raw Indian Rosewood, but they ARE allowed to import the manufactured fretboards made from Indian Rosewood.  In effect, the government is telling them to set up manufacturing for those parts outside of the US rather than doing it in Nashville, TN).
  • Attacking companies like Boeing Aerospace for expanding in ways that the union (big money contributors to the Obama campaign) doesn’t like.  (If you didn’t know, the NLRB is trying to stop Boeing from opening an additional production facility in South Carolina.  They have continually been hit by union strikes in Washington state, and want to have a second facility in a “Right to Work” state… one which doesn’t force union membership).
  • Supporting companies like GE, rewarding the CEO with a Chair on President Obama’s “Jobs Council”… as the company inks a deal on expansion and job creation… in China, but not the US.  All the while, GE is holding money off-shore to avoid taxes.

The private sector WANTS to create jobs.  But, with the incredible growth of deficit spending (which squeezes private lending), and the incredible growth of regulation ($1.74T in regulatory costs to businesses), and the desire to increase taxes on those same business, and the increasing costs on the horizon from ObamaCare, businesses are not willing to take the risks.

The government doesn’t create permanent jobs, except for the people that they directly hire… and the government is already too big.  But they certainly have the ability to kill jobs in the private sector.  And until the government stops trying to kill jobs, there won’t be a recovery in real estate… 

No matter what Nancy Pelosi says about how Unemployment is a GREAT stimulus, people aren’t buying homes or cars or much else while they sit on unemployment… 

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Change to Local Market Reports

Monday, 05 September 2011 08:00
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As a real estate agent, I run across a lot of cool tools.  Some of them are great for me to better read the markets and help buyers and sellers to accomplish their goals.  Other tools are great for consumers to use while making decisions about buying or selling a home.

I always recommend that both buyers and sellers look at the local market where they are buying or selling.  It has a tremendous bearing on whether prices are on the rise or falling, as well as what the competitive environment might be.  Looking at a solid CMA (Comparative Market Analysis) for the home (that they are selling or looking at buying) is a great start… but it doesn’t give the wide picture.

 

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County

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Many buyers and sellers turn to AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) to get an idea of the value of a home.  Probably the most well known of these would be the Zillow Zestimate.  I have written about Zillow and their Zestimates a few times.  Zestimates are amazing tools… within the bounds of their limitations.

 

While I would quickly point out that Zestimates are a very limited tool in regards to pegging the value of a particular property, one thing I will point out just as quickly is that the Zestimates have given Zillow an amazing database of historical and current home values.  And while individual Zestimates are seldom right, I feel that their compiled data is quite accurate (1 house is too small a sample size to be accurate, but 10,000 houses can make them very accurate in pegging the market in general).

I will be incorporating Zillow’s Local Area Indexes into my Market Reports moving forward.  I think that they are a valuable tool for you, the consumer, to better assess the market value of homes that you might be considering.  Look for charts like this one for various areas within Gwinnett as part of market reports.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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