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Category Archives: news

Wayback Wednesday… Still Bickering…

Wednesday, 18 May 2011 08:49
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

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Last year I wrote about how Gwinnett County and 15 cities in the county were involved in a lawsuit.  At that time, they only had days to get things straightened out before there were serious issues with the “Qualified Status” of the local governments.

A year later and they are still bickering over it.

There are a few changes…  Some police departments were de-certified to use radar.  The Gwinnett County Sheriff’s Department stepped in and ran radar.  The lawsuits are continuing.  The County could go bankrupt if the cities win.  Residents in the cities could continue to face double charges for services provided by the cities.

This would be more fun if we could just break out the popcorn and watch without financial implications or worry about city and county service delivery.

For more…

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2011

Tuesday, 17 May 2011 08:17
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, April, 2011, indicates that there were 440 properties on the market (as of April 30th). Overall, there was about an 10.6 month supply of properties and 44 properties that closed (sold) in April.  I had been looking for an increase in sales for March and it came through.  And while April was an increase over last year’s sales (36), it was a decrease from March, 2011 (55 sales).  Usually, we would be on an upswing until July or August.  I’m still hopeful… the Absorption Rate notched down a little.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 310 listings, with about an 9.6 month supply with 32 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales dropped sharply from last month (43), and were only slightly above last year (31).  While the Absorption Rate dropped slightly from 9.7 to 9.6 months of inventory, I really wanted to see more movement in this segment.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 115 listings for sale, and about 14.4 months of supply.  This segment has been quite weak for months.  Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 in November didn’t help. Nine sales in January was HUGE. But, February was back down below last year.  March was strong last year, but a little stronger this year (9 v 8 in 2010).  April was HUGE… 11 sales compared to just 4 last year.  If May stays strong, this could signal a return to a more balanced segment… and Lilburn has been missing that.

From $400k to $600k, there are 11 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 11 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  It doesn’t seem like much, but this is a segment hasn’t posted that many months with back to back sales… Watch May, because there haven’t been sales posted three months in a row since 2009.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Can the Market Decide?

Monday, 16 May 2011 08:12
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Installation of a sidewalk in Middletown, Rhod...

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It has been almost a year since the last of the real estate targeted stimulus funds ended.  In fact, it was April 30th last year that contracts had to be written… with a June closing.

Interest rates were a touch higher than now… and sales were mixed compared to this year.  They were certainly up from the year before.

But there are some other VERY important facts to also consider:

  • Values in most of the country, including Gwinnett County, GA, are down from last year…  +$8000 tax credit…  -$15000 in value.
  • The government (taxpayers) borrowed about $17 billion for the rebates…
  • Much of the money went to people that would have bought homes anyway…
  • A good bit of the money went to people that weren’t actually eligible…

Maybe we should have just let the market work it out.  Maybe.

Here we are a year after the credits started to go away, and the market is showing signs of recovery… but the market tanked for a while immediately after the credits expired.  It would be VERY easy to argue that the reason the market is starting to turn is that prices have eroded further, not because of any lasting stimulation effect of the tax credit.

$17 billion here, $17 billion there… pretty soon you are talking about real money…

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, March 2011

Thursday, 05 May 2011 08:35
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Market stats for Norcross GA, March, 2011 indicate that there were 399 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 8.4 month supply of properties. January was a powerhouse…  February continued the trend, although not quite as powerful.  March was a breakout month (59 v 44 last year).  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post three strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 235 listings, with about 6.6 month supply.  Sales are up sharply from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (43 v 31).  November and December were weak, but January, February and March have shown a powerful reversal in that trend.  And with an Absorption Rate in the mid-6 month range, this price/location segment is bordering on balanced.  It has been quite a while since I have been able to say that…

Between $200k and $400k, there were 118 listings for sale, and about 16.1 months of supply.  Sales had been down and slowing for the last few months, but lower inventory levels made things look better.  Sales bumped up well above last month… and almost to last year’s level, so despite the increase in listings, the Absorption Rate dropped.

From $400k to $600k, there were 41 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 10.3 months.  Inventory has been rising for the last three months, as have sales (4 months for sales, actually).  And the Absorption Rate has been dropping for 4 months.  Still has a little way to go, but I love that it is getting stronger every month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate is at 6 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there are only 2 listings.  Only.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were no homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to just 9 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011

Tuesday, 03 May 2011 08:19
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Market stats for Buford, GA, March, 2011 indicate that there were 610 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 12.2 month supply of properties.  March was down substantially, 63 v 84 sales in 2009.  February was exactly the opposite, 60 v 38 sales in 2009.  January was slightly below last year (25 v 28 for 2009).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 354 listings, with a 9.9 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were up slightly from last month (48 v 41), but pretty flat compared to last year (50 sales in Mar. 2010).

Between $200k and $400k, there were 194 listings for sale, and about  15.3 months of supply.  Last year, March took off compared to February (19 then 32 sales), but this year it was slightly down (18 then 14 sales).  Obviously, March sales were WAY down compared to last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 18.6 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 5 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one weakened for February.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings.  Absorption Rate is 6 months (averaging a sale every few months)… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 2 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 3 sales in this segment last year… the last was this past November.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until last December (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 13 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009… still…

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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