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Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report… October, 2010

Monday, 06 December 2010 08:22
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Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County
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So, let’s get to the numbers and try to get a handle on what they mean.

At the end of October, 2010, there were 6,138 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As expected, there has been a general upward trend in the number of listings all year, but that was slowing… as expected, but bumped up this past month, which wasn’t expected.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 553 sales in October.  This was down from 767 sales for October, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 10.8 months of inventory.  Which has been steadily increasing since June (this isn’t an increase that is good).  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For August, it represented 3,885 homes listed.  There were 435 sales during that period.  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 9.1 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more “market normal” June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for October were down from 532 in October, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, there were 1,690 listings county-wide.  The Absorption Rate, currently at about 13.7 months of inventory, has been rising since August.  And while sales are down, listings are down more, which is driving the absorption rate down.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 116 for 2010 v 208 for 2009.  In effect, while there are about half of the listings of the next lower market segment, there are barely more than a quarter of the sales.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there were 329 listings in Gwinnett County and 6 sales for October, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate had been basically dropping since March, 2010, but jumped up significantly based on weak sales.  Currently it indicates about 31.7 months of inventory.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are abysmal v last year.  For October, 2009, there were 24 sales.  I can only hope there are some sales that are very late going into the system

In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates 27.3 months of inventory.  That rate has been rising since July (it was 10 months, then).  But, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For October, there were 82 listings in this price range.  There were 2 sales… down from 4 in October, 2009.

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 49 active listings and 1 sale for October, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 61 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  But, there is an upward trend in the absorption rate… which isn’t good.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 103 listings and 4 sales for October, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 26 months of inventory.  Sales are up significantly from last year (when there were 0 sales…).  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and “one-offs”.

I’m looking forward to seeing the sales data for November soon.

You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for October wasn’t very solid until the beginning of December.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute…

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Saturday, 04 December 2010 08:14
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Norcross shopping district and downtown
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Market stats for Norcross, October, 2010 indicate that there were 390 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 8.5 month supply of properties. October and September sales were down v 2009 (42 v 57 and 43 v 55), but August was way up (52 v 43).  Overall, the market isn’t terrible here, looking back.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 211 listings, with about 6.3 month supply.  Sales are way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area.  But the segment is still looking pretty strong, despite the weakness in July and September and relative weakness of sales in October.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 133 listings for sale, and about 14.8 months of supply.  Sales have been down and slowing for the last few months.  But October was down (4 v 13 last year).  With the increase in inventory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 40 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months.  Sales have actually been strengthening since March (with a few ups and downs…), but much of the perception is from shrinking inventories.  Actual sales have been mostly decelerating.  I expect to see the numbers move the other way in the next few months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate (three month average) is at 9 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales this year, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There have been three sales in the last year (Nov 09, Apr 10 and Sept 10).

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Thursday, 02 December 2010 08:51
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Buford Dam on the Chattahoochee River in north...
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Market stats for Buford, GA, October, 2010 indicate that there were 616 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 11 month supply of properties.  Sales were down radically in July (19 v 71 for 2009), but August was back in the realm (57 v 61 for 2009).  September was slightly below last year (52 v 60 for 2009).  October was back to the pits (60 v 89 in 2009).  The magic has been a little underwhelming since June.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 314 listings, with a 9 month supply.  Sales for July were down by 70%.  There was actually one extra sale for August, but two less in September.  October was down from 51 in 2009 to 37 this year.  May was the best absorption rate of the year, and it has been going downhill since, but actually got better in October because of the terribly weak July dropping off of the 3 month rate.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 234 listings for sale, and about  12.3 months of supply.  Again, July was the dog, with sales down by 75%.  August, September and October were also down, but the absorption rate improved significantly with July dropping off.

From $400k to $600k, there were 45 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 22.5 months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 6 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 2 sales in this segment since November… but one was in September.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 5 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (Nov. 09 and Feb 10), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by 50% compared to last month.

Above $1m, there were 12 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009… still…

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Tuesday, 30 November 2010 08:29
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DSCN0583
Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2010 indicate that there are 232 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 11 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July, but inventories have been rising.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 156 listings, with under 12.3 months supply.  Sales are also about 65% of the level last year over the last three months.  Sales appear to be decelerating, but perked up for October… still down 17 v 24 compared to last year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 64 listings for sale, and about 14.8 months of supply.  As recently as May, there was only a 6.75 month supply.  September was better than August, but still pretty weak overall.  October was weaker yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are 8 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 24 months, but with 1 sale in the last 5 months, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There have only been 3 sales in this segment this year.

Above $600k, the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 17 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Saturday, 27 November 2010 08:14
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Finder USA building in Suwanee, GA
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2010 indicate that there are 5601 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.7 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 159 listings, with about a 8.7 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed… although sales for July and August (19 and 15) were exactly the same last year and at 18, there was only one less sale in September v last year.  October sales were down from 27 last year to 22 this year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 298 listings for sale, and 10 months of supply.  Sales for September 2010 were 30 compared with 39 for the same period in 2009.  Still weak, but much better than last month.  For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 79 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 13.9 months.  While 3 sales this year don’t compare favorably with the 7 sales last year, the three month average is reasonably close (17 v 20 in 2009).  There are fewer listings, though.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 26 month supply.  We can look directly to a reduction in inventory for the drop in absorption rate from 45 months in February… sales are still slower than last year, and seem to be decelerating (3 this year from Aug-Oct v 10 last year).

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 78 months of inventory on the market.  There has only been 3 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April and May).  Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Aug-Oct both this year and last).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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