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Category Archives: real estate

Wayback Wednesday… Add-on or Get Out?

Wednesday, 13 July 2011 08:32
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I’m not getting this question nearly as much as I used to… but it is still a valid question for many “would-be” buyers (or sellers)…

Should I improve my current home, or just buy a new one?

It isn’t nearly as easy of an answer as it might first seem.  Here is my take on it 3 years ago.  But there are some changes…  Read the old post if you have a moment, then come back and finish this one.  I’ll give a few highlights.

Let’s say that you live in a house that has eroded from $250,000 to $225,000 (10%), and you are looking at a house that went from $500,000 to $450,000 (also 10%).  If you took the $25,000 loss on your existing home, you would save $50,000 on the step up home.  So, you are $25,000 ahead.

Home of Benjamin Harrison, 23rd president of t...

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Well… the house that you might have taken a 10% loss on 3 years ago might be staring at a 25-30% loss now… maybe more, maybe less.  But (this is important) that might be starting to change… might… depending on your neighborhood and even the style of house.  So, we might start seeing some of those great deal disappearing.  At the same time, we might find that a few more prospective sellers can get out of their current home without losing their shirts.  If you can’t afford to sell, then the deals are irrelevant.

Also, in the old post I mentioned interest rates… they were around 6% then, and they are around 4.5% now.  This CAN’T last.

Combining these two items, home affordability hasn’t been better in a VERY long time.  But, you still have to be in a position to make the move… be able to sell your home (and either have equity or the ability to pay off the balance.

Also in the old post I talked about not building too far outside of the “neighborhood norms”.  If the average house in your neighborhood is a 3-4 bedroom, 2-3 bath ranch, building a 6 bedroom two story home is NOT going to pay you back.  I’m not saying that you can’t do it (but check local ordinances and covenants, THEY might say you can’t), I’m saying that you shouldn’t expect to be able to sell it without pain.

Even if you NEVER plan to sell the house, think about resale.  I have sold more than one “I’m never going to move from here” homes for sellers.  Life changed and so did their needs.  They went and bought new “I’m never going to move from here” homes.  Even if you are right… you are never going to move from here, at some point, somebody in the family is likely to sell the house.

 

If you decide that you want to move up (or down or sideways), give me a call.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Tuesday, 12 July 2011 08:16
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Market stats for Norcross GA, May, 2011 indicate that there were 385 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 7.2 month supply of properties. This year has been very strong so far… although it has slowed the last two months… it hasn’t slowed much.  May saw 52 sales, slightly above the 49 for April and the 48 for last May, but with the slight decrease in listing inventory the Absorption Rate (AR) still built strength.  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post four strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 225 listings, with about 5 month supply.  Sales are up sharply from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (39 v 32).  For the last two months, the AR has been in the range of balanced… it got a little better this month.  This looks like the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 120 listings for sale, and about 18 months of supply.  As strong as the under $200k segment is… this one is that weak.  The 7 sales were a considerable drop from last year’s 13 sales, but a good bump from last month’s 3 sales.  Of course, this segment has always seemed to lag.

From $400k to $600k, there were 34 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 8.5 months.  The Absorption Rate has been dropping for 5 months.  This is odd considering the performance of the next segment down, but totally in line with the <$200k segment.  May’s 5 sales are down from 2 the month before, and compares favorable to last year’s 2 sales… and the inventory decrease really helped.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listing on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate is at 1.5 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another in May, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there is only 1 listing.  Only.  For June there are 8 listings… expect a major change in this segment.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to 24 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Thursday, 07 July 2011 08:45
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Market stats for Buford, GA, May, 2011 indicate that there were 584 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 8.3 month supply of properties.  There were 75 sales for April, up slightly from 73 last month and 73 from last May (2010).  It is an impressive comeback from March’s poor showing.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 313 listings, with a 6.1 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were up slightly from last month (54 v 51), but strong compared to last year (47 sales in May 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is quite strong.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 213 listings for sale, and about  12.1 months of supply.  The 17 sales recorded were significantly below the 22 from last month., as well as down from the 23 sales last year for May.  It is among the weaker price/area segments in Gwinnett County, GA.  Of course, if there were a big bump next month…

From $400k to $600k, there were 36 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 54 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There has been 2 sale in the last 3 months (both in May).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one has been weakening.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings.  Absorption Rate is 6 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 4 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was this month.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 7 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until last December (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 11 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… FINALLY, a new sale.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… A Foreclosure Mitigation Too Good to be True…

Wednesday, 06 July 2011 08:35
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Showing how the rapid rise in in mortgage cred...

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I don’t know about you, but I have heard the stores and even seen the occasional late night TV ad talking about getting out of your mortgage for free.  Two years ago, I wrote about how it was the latest scam being pulled on people facing foreclosure.  And be aware… it is nothing but a scam.

Here is the “meat” of the old post…

Here is the way it works (and it all sounds so legit…):

  • Mr. and Mrs. Consumer buy a house and get a mortgage from MonsterMegaMortgageCompany (MMMC).
  • MMMC sells their mortgage to Investor Pool #1.
  • Then it is bundled and sold to IP#2… and #3 and #4 over a span of a few years.
  • Mr. & Mrs. Consumer start having problems, and despite everything they are facing foreclosure.
  • To try to get help they contact a “Foreclosure Mitigation” Law Firm that fights the foreclosure by filing a “missing title” lawsuit.
  • The law firm (or other entity) charges an up-front fee (maybe $2000) and then monthly fees (maybe $1000 or $1500)… as well as a contingency fee upon settlement of either 50% of the reduction or 75% or 80% of the value if the mortgage were completely eliminated.
  • After stringing along Mr. & Mrs. Consumer for a few months or longer (collecting fees), they fail to actually prosecute the case.
  • Mr. & Mrs. Consumer lose their home…

According to a few of the sources I looked at, their are no recorded examples of any suit of this type EVER being resolved in the consumer’s favor.

There are also a couple of links.  As an update, there are a couple of stories over the last few years of judges setting aside mortgages because the holder could not produce the right paperwork.  But, you have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.  The lenders have gotten smart and are making sure their paperwork is better… and in the few cases that I have heard about mortgages being set aside, the lenders also committed fraud in ginning up the paperwork… and that isn’t likely to happen many more times.

Follow the link above and visit the old post…  It’s lonely.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Tuesday, 05 July 2011 08:16
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , May, 2011indicate that there are 238 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.9 month supply of properties.  There were 43 sales, compared to 20 last month and 25 last May.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a weak month dropping off… and a strong month of sales for May.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 164 listings, with under 6.9 months supply.  There were 39 sales this May, three time number last year for the same time.  Last month there were 17 sales.  Inventories have been rising fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories ramping up.  Sales have been flat or slightly down until this month… BIG jump.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 64 listings for sale, and about 12.8 months of supply.  Last May there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It is also one of the few price/area segments that had an increase in listings and an increase in the Absorption Rate (AR).  Last May there were 10 sales, this year there were 4.  Last month had 3.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 72 months, but with 1 sale last September, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  I hope to see some activity in this segment in June.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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