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Category Archives: real estate

Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, April 2011

DSCN0570

Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , April, 2011 indicate that there are 236 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 12.2 month supply of properties.  There were 20 sales, compared to 23 last month and 24 last April.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to the reduction in active listings and the fact that a month with 15 sales dropped off.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 164 listings, with under 10.7 months supply.  There were 17 sales this April the same number last year for the same time.  Last month there were 15 sales.  Inventories have been rising steadily, until dropping this month.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories ramping up.  Sales have been flat or slightly down.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 62 listings for sale, and about 15.5 months of supply.  Last May there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It is also one of the few price/area segments that had an increase in listings and an increase in the Absorption Rate (AR).  Last April there were 7 sales, this year there were 3.  Last month had 8.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 7 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 28 months, but with 1 sale 8 months ago, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  I hope to see some activity in this segment in May.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Another Way to Increase Existing Home Values…

Abolish the IRS

Image by chasingfun via Flickr

I am a fan of the FairTax.  I don’t think that income taxes are right… at ANY level.  When taxing production, the government is laying claim to a portion of the life of the taxpayer… and I don’t feel that ANYONE has the right to lay claim to a portion of the life of another.  By taxing consumption, there is no direct taxation on the production of a person, but rather on what they take up.

But that is another post…

But, as I was thinking the other day, I had a thought…  Implementation of the FairTax might be a natural solution for homeowners that are underwater on their homes. The FairTax would eliminate all payroll and income taxes, replacing them with a single retail level sales tax.  That tax would make up 23% of the cost of new retail goods and services.  In effect, new construction homes would be subject to the tax, but existing homes would not.

While the savings for builders (and their subcontractors) would likely drive down new construction prices by some portion, there would likely be a period at the beginning where existing home prices would bump up.  In effect, sellers would be able to raise their prices since the competition from new homes would be limited.  In the long run, prices for new homes would return to pre-FairTax levels (or slightly higher), but there would be a window allowing some sellers to get out from under their homes.

There is also the matter of economic growth.  There are a fair number of studies that point to increasing economic growth (spelled J-O-B-S) going hand in hand with the FairTax.  Increasing employment would also increase housing demand… increasing prices.  Again, that would help those that are just hanging on by letting them get out without resorting to short sales and foreclosures.

 

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April 2011

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Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, April, 2011 indicate that there are 624 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.3 month supply of properties.  March sales were down (53), but April reversed the trend, although with 75 sales, it was close to flat compared to 2010 (74).  inventory was flat compared to 2010.  This is one of the few markets where the inventory increased.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 178 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 6.9 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  April sales were quite strong, at 37.  Last month there were barely half (19) as many sales and last April there were 24.  This might be the strongest current segment in Gwinnett County.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 295 listings for sale, and 10.5 months of supply.  Sales in April 2011 were 30, compared with 37 for the same period in 2010.  Weak, but with the decrease in listings, the Absorption Rate AR)got a bit better.  So far this year, only February has posted better sales that 2010, and that was just barely.

From $400k to $600k, there are 90 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 22.5 months.  There were 3 sales this year (April)… down from 6 last year.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 12 sales this year and 22 for the same period last year.  The only good part is that listings are down slightly, and would normally be rising at this time of the year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 29 listings, with about a 29 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 2 this month.  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 3…  For the sale time last year, the sales were 10.  The segment weakened , but we can’t call a trend yet… two months ago it was looking stronger.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 10 homes listed and 2½ years of inventory on the market.  There were only been 4 sales at this price level last year (1 each in January, April, May and December) and one for April this year.  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 22 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 22 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (3 sales in Feb-Apr this year and 5 last year).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 40 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There were 2 sales for April.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2011

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Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

Preliminary stats for Duluth, April, 2011 indicated that there were 583 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.4 month supply of properties.  Sales in April were 70, compared to 65 a year earlier.  Oddly, this is one of the few markets to report a momth to month sales increase for April.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, that gives Duluth a strong showing for the Absorption Rate (AR).

In the Under $200k arena, there were 234 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 7.5 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for April were up sharply this year v last year (37 v 27), and up from March (30).  This segment could do really well if the current trends hold… and we have seen them holding for a couple of months (although March was the weakest since Nov, 2010).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 163 listings for sale, and about 10 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again.  Sales were flat compared to April, 2010 (17).  This was one of the very few segments to have inventory rise from March.

From $400k to $600k, there were 54 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 16.2 months.  Last month I wrote “Sales might not seem that strong, with only 5 units, especially compared to 8 last year, but I think the problem is with the inventory.  I’ll keep looking for an increase in sales.  Maybe April will show it.”  April did NOT show it.  Sales DIVED to just 1 unit.  There were 7 last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 52 listings, with about 10.4 months of supply.  Sales were 8 for April… 6 for April last year.  Month to month sales doubled (8 v 4).  If listings stay relatively low, this segment could continue to improve.  I am looking for somewhere around 10-12 sales for May to show me this segment is coming back.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 31 homes listed and approximately 8.5 months of inventory on the market.  The 3 sales recorded for April tied last year and last month.  The AR actually looks better than it has in the last 18 months.  I would really like to see sales increase, though.  Inventory will likely go up soon.

Above $1m, there were 49 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 21 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 7 sales in the Feb-Apr period this year, and 9 sales for the same time last year… but inventories are much lower, leading to a better looking AR.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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A Seat at the Table…

Freddie Mac

Image via Wikipedia

Millions of American families are facing foreclosure.  Millions more have already been through the process… and there are millions that don’t know it yet, but they will be staring at foreclosure proceedings in the future.  It is an epidemic, one that is difficult to escape.  Not impossible… but difficult.

Foreclosures are accelerating for a couple of reasons… but one of them is momentum.  As a neighborhood faces foreclosures, the values of the non-foreclosed homes dwindles.  Foreclosures generally bring lower prices, which pushes down the prices of non-foreclosed homes… which pushes down the prices of the foreclosures.  It is a self-perpetuating cycle.  Buyers are afraid to jump in because they see prices still moving down.  Sellers get desperate to get out because they see their equity (if they have any) drying up.  The cycle continues.  Some of the people that needed to move couldn’t hack the values anymore, and they let their home slide into foreclosure.

Those that are marginal or that trying to be proactive call their banks.  They talk with them about short sales or loan modification.  For the vast majority seeking a loan modification (we are talking 98%+ here), they might as well talk to a brick wall.  Short sales are slightly more common, assuming the seller only has one mortgage.

Banks simply aren’t really open to talking with the homeowners about their situation.  And there are a variety of reasons.  Some of them they are willing to say (in an unguarded moment, perhaps).  Other reasons the people in the Loss Mitigation department might not even realize… if they do, they aren’t talking.

  • The sign in the lobby of AIG's headquarters at...

    Image via Wikipedia

    The borrower doesn’t have enough income anymore to support the modified loan (in their opinion…)

  • If they grant a principal reduction to one borrower, they will be flooded with others expecting the same thing.
  • The “other bank” won’t accept an amount that is inside of their guidelines.
  • There just isn’t enough staff/resources to handle the load.

And the big one that nobody seems to talk about…

  • The banks insurance on the loan will cover them in a default, limiting the amount of loss they will suffer.  However, if they modify or allow a short sale, their insurance won’t kick in.  That increases their loss.

This is the one that really needs to be worked on.  The insurance company… the people that REALLY need to be involved in loss mitigation, don’t have a seat at the table.  And the big losses are at the loan insurance level.  Whether it is a private insurer like AIG (remember their bailout?), a government sponsored entity  like Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae or a public loan guarantor HUD, they don’t have the chance to be actively involved in the process until it is too late.

To Fix it…

The first thing that would need to happen is for the entity that insures of guarantees the loan to have an active role in the decision about modification or foreclosure.  Right now, in the case of a short sale, it is up to the “investors”, those that actually own the loan (often that is NOT the bank).

When a homeowner inquires about a loan modification, the bank should do their best to determine two things… they should look at the value of the property and the homeowner’s ability to pay.  What they should be looking for is to find at what level the homeowner would likely be able to pay.  At that point, the insurance company (or loan guarantor) should take over if the numbers look like they would be bearing the loss.

 

graph shows U.S. foreclosure trends (quantity ...

Image via Wikipedia

Example:

 

  1. Bob the homeowner loses his job and ends up working for less money.  He can no longer really afford his home, but doesn’t want to walk away.  He paid $300,000 for the house and owes $285,000.
  2. Bob contacts his bank.  The bank determines that the house would likely sell in a foreclosure sale for $210,000.  Bob would be able to qualify for a loan of $220,000.  The banks insurance kicks in at $240,000.
  3. At this point, the insurer would review the file.  If the bank takes the house, they would have to pay the bank whatever loss they suffered under $240,000.
  4. Rather than the bank going through with foreclosure, the insurance company agrees to pay $30,000 if they re-write Bob’s loan to $215,000.

Bob ends up owing a little more than the house might fetch in a foreclosure sale.  The bank doesn’t incur the costs of foreclosing and having to get the property ready for sale.  The insurance company takes a hit, but it might be a smaller hit than they would have taken had the house been foreclosed.  And there is less risk for everyone involved.

 

 

Free Money Collection in Cash

Image by epSos.de via Flickr

Of course, the example above is completely fictitious.  The numbers are pulled out of thin air…  And honestly, there are a LOT of people that would not be helped in such a situation.  The goal, however, isn’t to save every homeowner in the country that is upside-down.  The goal is to minimize losses to consumers, the banks, insurance companies, GSEs and the government, while helping people that still have some capacity to participate.

 

 

People without income or expenses too high to make a reasonable payment are not going to be helped.  People that take advantage of the system once and are trying to get a third chance would likely not be helped (I would call a program like this a good second chance).

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