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Category Archives: real estate

Wayback Wednesday… Value Pack, a Twofer

ingredients

Image by finestationery via Flickr

Not one, but two whole posts this week for Wayback Wednesday.

I wrote a couple of posts a couple of years ago about valuations.  They were back to back then, and I really think they do best when read together.

My Home is Worth What?

But Zillow Says…

Even from the titles, it is easy to discern that the posts are related, and they really are.

The first post, My Home is Worth What?, is a bit of a rundown about the various ways properties are valued, ranging from appraisals to real estate agent derived tools like CMAs and BPOs (read the post for more about these).  But, all of the valuation models… even real estate agents… are missing one key ingredient.  And even though I know exactly what it is, I can’t add it to valuations that I do… that is the tragic flaw in evaluating properties.

 

Image representing Zillow as depicted in Crunc...

Image via CrunchBase

The second post, But Zillow Says…, explores a little more about Zillow’s Zestimate, their AVM (Automatic Valuation Model).  It is an amazing tool, but has some serious limitations.  There are a lot of real estate agents that do their best to dismiss, ignore or even outright kick the Zestimates.  I think the problem is that they don’t understand the limitations and parameters of them, so they don’t know how to talk about what they mean.  It is a shame, because they are such a useful tool… especially on a wider basis.

 

I hope you have a chance to check out both post

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, March 2011

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Market stats for Norcross GA, March, 2011 indicate that there were 399 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 8.4 month supply of properties. January was a powerhouse…  February continued the trend, although not quite as powerful.  March was a breakout month (59 v 44 last year).  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post three strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 235 listings, with about 6.6 month supply.  Sales are up sharply from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (43 v 31).  November and December were weak, but January, February and March have shown a powerful reversal in that trend.  And with an Absorption Rate in the mid-6 month range, this price/location segment is bordering on balanced.  It has been quite a while since I have been able to say that…

Between $200k and $400k, there were 118 listings for sale, and about 16.1 months of supply.  Sales had been down and slowing for the last few months, but lower inventory levels made things look better.  Sales bumped up well above last month… and almost to last year’s level, so despite the increase in listings, the Absorption Rate dropped.

From $400k to $600k, there were 41 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 10.3 months.  Inventory has been rising for the last three months, as have sales (4 months for sales, actually).  And the Absorption Rate has been dropping for 4 months.  Still has a little way to go, but I love that it is getting stronger every month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate is at 6 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there are only 2 listings.  Only.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were no homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to just 9 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011

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Market stats for Buford, GA, March, 2011 indicate that there were 610 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 12.2 month supply of properties.  March was down substantially, 63 v 84 sales in 2009.  February was exactly the opposite, 60 v 38 sales in 2009.  January was slightly below last year (25 v 28 for 2009).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 354 listings, with a 9.9 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were up slightly from last month (48 v 41), but pretty flat compared to last year (50 sales in Mar. 2010).

Between $200k and $400k, there were 194 listings for sale, and about  15.3 months of supply.  Last year, March took off compared to February (19 then 32 sales), but this year it was slightly down (18 then 14 sales).  Obviously, March sales were WAY down compared to last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 18.6 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 5 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one weakened for February.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings.  Absorption Rate is 6 months (averaging a sale every few months)… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 2 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 3 sales in this segment last year… the last was this past November.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until last December (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 13 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009… still…

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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$34M for a Royal Wedding? What Does That Get in Gwinnett County GA?

Cover of "Royal Wedding"

Cover of Royal Wedding

Are you “Royal Wedding”ed out yet?  Honestly, I was a bit over it a week ago.  I appreciate the historic significance of the event, but knowing what type of diapers Kate and William wore as infants and interviews with people that saw them in the hallways at grade school is a little much.

And then I heard that the estimated cost of the event was between $34M and $60M (British Tax Payers shelled out about $30M for security in addition to the cost of the nuptials…).  And I got to wondering…

What kind of Real Estate would $34M buy in Gwinnett County, GA?

Honestly, that would be a REALLY generous budget around here.  The most expensive house listed in the county right now is “only” $6,750,000.  It is lovely 8 bedroom, 10 full/2 half bathroom home in the Sugarloaf Country Club (and it you want to buy it, I would be GLAD to help you out… Proof of Funds are required for showings).

There would even be a nice chunk of change left over to buy a warehouse to keep the toys in… and there would be a pretty nice toy budget in there, as well.

What about a nice lake house on Lake Lanier?

Well… I happen to know of one.  it is a mere $4,500,000 and has 5 bedrooms, 5 full baths and 2 half baths.  There is also a 6 car garage and just over 6 acres of grounds… with 750 feet of lake frontage.  Lake Lanier is just north of the Atlanta Metro area, between Gainesville and Cumming, GA.  It borders Gwinnett, Hall and Dawson Counties.

 

There are some homes in Buckhead and a few other areas around here where there are homes between $10M and $20M… but these are pretty interesting homes.  And $34,000,000 is a LOT of money.  In fact, ALL of the homes sold in Lilburn, GA, during the 1st Quarter of 2011 totaled up to about $16,800,000.  That is a lot of coin…

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2011

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , March, 2011 indicate that there are 250 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 12.9 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July (aside from a bump in December), but inventories were rising, and along with it, the number of months of inventory (that is the wrong way…).  January had an odd drop in inventory this year.  Even more odd is a slight drop for February.  March started moving back up again… and I was really looking forward to a better Absorption Rate.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 182 listings, with under 13.3 months supply.  There were 15 sales this March and 16 last year for the same time.  Inventories have been rising steadily.  Sales have been flat or slightly down.  We really need to see a bump next month… at least we hope to see the bump.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 59 listings for sale, and about 14.8 months of supply.  Last May there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  Sales have been up and down over the last few months, but February was bad… 1 sale.  This March, there were 8 sales, v 11 last year.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 30 months, but with 1 sale 7 months ago, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.  I hope to see some activity in this segment in April and May.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 18 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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