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Category Archives: sellers

Lilburn, GA Market Report, December 2011

Friday, 20 January 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, December, 2011, indicates that there were 380 properties on the market (as of December 31st).  Overall, there was about an 7.4 month supply of properties and 54 properties that closed (sold) in December.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (31) and from November, 2011 (41 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down significantly.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.35 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 275 listings, with about an 6.3 month supply with 43 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales increased markedly from last month (36), and were also up dramatically from last year (31).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  But October was quite strong, November was actually below expectations.  December was back on track.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 96 listings for sale, and about 12.5 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 11 sales compared to 0 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  But the decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 3 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 9.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none since.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Over-Pricing and Under-Offering

Wednesday, 18 January 2012 08:00
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If there were two issues I’d have to put at the very top of my question pile, there would be the ones…  In the original post, I started with the Sellers… so we’ll start with the Buyers this time.

Buyers want a great deal.  We all understand that, and as a real estate agent, I’m supportive.  Even the Sellers get it.  But there are two problems.  The first one I wrote about in a couple of years ago, here.  Buyers, in their zeal to get a great deal, offer too low to start with.  The find a property where the price has been cut to the bone, and then they offer WAY lower.

The problem there is that the seller, whether institutional, or a “regular” seller, doesn’t see the low-ball offer as being serious… then they attach the same feeling to the buyer that made the offer… they aren’t serious.  And the seller, if they send back a counter offer, reply with a counter offer that shows that… like maybe knocking $100 off the price.  Negotiations stall.  That doesn’t help them get the house… and it wastes everyone’s time, including their own.

A few years ago, when I originally wrote the post, there was blood in the water, so to speak, and it was still an issue.  Now, especially at the entry-level end of the market, that is NOT the case.  It is actually a Seller’s Market for homes that are priced well.  I am seeing an increasing number of listings selling for VERY close to list price within days.

Sellers want to get the most from their house.  It doesn’t matter if they are a corporate seller or someone moving to take advantage of a job opportunity… or even a seller doing a short sale.  Of course, just as the sellers aren’t terribly concerned with the needs of the buyers, buyers don’t really care about the needs of the seller to get top-dollar for their property.  And buyers aren’t looking at many over-priced properties. 

They know which properties are over-priced, too.  More and more, I’m seeing buyers that are VERY sophisticated in terms of knowing the value of a particular property, usually before choosing to look at it the first time.  If it isn’t priced within a few percent of where it should be, they probably won’t even look at it.  Not 10%… not even 5%.  More like 2-3%, closer on higher priced homes.

The end result, is that the home sits on the market for a while with few, or even no viewings, much less offers.  After a while, the sellers reduce the price, but by then the home is stigmatized.  The price drops more.  In the end, the home sells for less that it might have sold had the original price been more competitive. 

 

What about short sales?

They are the new wrinkle.  And I didn’t really address them the first time around.  But some similar rules apply…

Sellers, price realistically for the market.  Don’t worry about what the bank will accept, worry about a price that will get an honest contract.  Realistically…  Not too high OR too low.  Anything else is a waste of everyone’s time.

Buyer, offer realistically.  A rule of thumb I use on short sale offers is that if the offer isn’t going to be within a couple of points of the list price, don’t bother.  If the list price is insanely high or low, don’t bother.  If you can’t afford to sit on the offer, waiting as much as six months for the bank to get their act together, don’t bother.

I know that is harsh, but it is reality.  I actually have a partner that is VERY successful at getting short sales sold.  It isn’t easy or fun for anyone…  But, it might beat the heck out of some of the alternatives for the seller, and offers great opportunity for the buyer.

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2011

Monday, 16 January 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2011 indicate that there are 468 properties on the market (down from 502 last month).  Overall, there is about an 6.7 month supply of properties (down from 7.0 last month).  December had 74 sales.  Compared to 2010 (46), this year was a stronger.  Inventory was down compared to 2010 (548).  The last five months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  December was much stronger than last year, and from November (53 sales).  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 152 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 4.0 month supply (161 and 5.0, respectively last year).  This December’s sales were solid, at 46 (just 13 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  I was looking for a solid follow-up to October’s 42 sales, but we didn’t get it in November.  Hopefully we’ll see a similar number of sales for January…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 209 listings for sale (249 last year), and 8.4 months of supply.  Sales in December, 2011 were 21 (31 in November), compared with 25 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  Could be getting better… but not this month.

From $400k to $600k, there are 59 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is at 9.8 months (10.1 in November).  There were 6 sales in December (4 in November)… up by 2 compared to last December.  Looking at the three month average, there were 18 sales this year and 11 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but like the next lower price segment, dropped off heavily this month.  We should be looking at close to 10 sales for January… I was hoping (but not expecting) 10 for December.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 17 listings, with about a 51 month supply (12.8 last month).  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (0 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 1…  For the same time last year, the sales were 3.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 5 homes listed and 15 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 39 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October, 0 for November and 1 for December).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 24 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 13 January 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, November, 2011 indicate that there were 268 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.1 month supply of properties.  This year has been very strong so far… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much.  November saw 52 sales, above the 30 for November, 2010, but below the 58 for October.  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post six strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 157 listings, with about 3.7 month supply.  Sales are down from last month but up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (45 v 46 in Oct11 & 28 Nov10).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 80 listings for sale, and about 10.4 months of supply.  This segment isn’t as weak as it had been over the last several months, and is continuing to build strength.  The 4 sales were solidly up compared to last year’s 1 sale, but down from last month’s 9 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.

From $400k to $600k, there were 24 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 10.3 months.  The AR had been dropping for months, then shot WAY up in June.  It has been working down slowly since.  November’s 2 sales is down from 3 the month before but up from last year’s 1 sale… and the inventory decrease didn’t hurt too much, either.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. Inventories had increased compared to last year. The Absorption Rate is at 9 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another each in May and June, and 1 sale in November, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. The volatile Absorption Rate is at 48 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Monday, 09 January 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, November, 2011 indicated that there were 439 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 7.4 month supply of properties.  Sales in November were 51, slightly down from 54 a year earlier.  But, sales were slightly down compared to the prior month (62).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much in October and November.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 168 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 4.3 month supply.  The Absorption Rate two years ago, December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for November were up sharply this year v last year (28 v 25), but down compared to last month (44).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is rocking most of the county… but sales have decelerated again this month, ever so slightly.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 121 listings for sale, and about 11.3 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the wrong way (up) since August.  Sales were WAY down compared to November, 2010 (8v 15) and compared to last month (12).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing well…

From $400k to $600k, there were 50 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was around 11.5 months.  November brought in 8 sales.  There were 8 last year and 3 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, but it’s better than last month,

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 40 listings, with about 10.9 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for November… 3 for November last year.  Month to month sales were better (5 v 3). After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope last month, but had to wait until this month to see the result I wanted.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for November was beaten by last year’s 2 but flat the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 37 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 28 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 4 sales in the Sept-Nov period this year, and 5 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County.  It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County.  The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address.  It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum).  There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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