Category Archives: sellers

Wayback Wednesday… Dirty Little Secrets…

Wednesday, 27 July 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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A tablet with the phrase "For sale by own...

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There are a couple of Dirty Little Secrets in Real Estate. I wrote about one of them a few years ago this week. Those people that want you to sell your home “FSBO” through them for a flat fee have one of those secrets. They don’t care if your home sells. They get paid whether your home sells or not… In fact, I’ve been to presentations where some of these companies were talking about their business model. It was mentioned that if the house DOESN’T sell, they have a chance to double down on the revenue.

But that isn’t the only secret.

Another one is that your real estate agent is only guessing at the “market value” of your home. And the same holds true for appraisers, adjusters and anyone else that is pegging a “value” to a home. There is only one way to determine an accurate type of value for a home, and that is replacement value. But that isn’t market value. See, the problem is that market value is determined by a buyer and a seller agreeing on the price of a house. And it is valid at the closing table… for THAT buyer and THAT seller. The second that title changes hands, that value starts becoming vaporous again. Some of us are pretty good at guessing what the market value MIGHT be, but it is a guess.

I don’t want that to sound self-serving. If you really want, I’ll sell your house for a flat fee. We can agree on everything right up front… what is going to be done, when it will be done, what is or isn’t included… You’ll even get a healthy discount for going that way.

I don’t mind being open about this industry. Dirty laundry HAS to be aired in order to get clean. This isn’t GIANT dirty laundry, but I think it is something that needs to be disclosed.

Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2011

Tuesday, 26 July 2011 08:28

Written by Lane Bailey

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Office building of NCR Corporation in Duluth, ...

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Preliminary stats for Duluth, June, 2011 indicated that there were 593 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 8.9month supply of properties. Sales in June were 60, compared to 68 a year earlier. Sales were down compared to both the prior year and the prior month. Duluth is trailing Gwinnett County as a whole.In the Under $200k arena, there were 249 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 6.5 month supply. The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s. Sales for June were up sharply this year v last year (41 v 23), but only slightly up compared to May, 2011 (37). This segment could do really well, but sales need to strengthen a little more…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 152 listings for sale, and about 9.5 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February. Sales were way down compared to June, 2010 (13 v 20). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is weak…

From $400k to $600k, there were 52 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 13.4 months. Two months ago I wrote “Sales might not seem that strong, with only 5 units, especially compared to 8 last year, but I think the problem is with the inventory. I’ll keep looking for an increase in sales. Maybe April will show it.” April did NOT show it. Sales DIVED to just 1 unit. May and June, on the other hand, brought in 2 sales each. There were 10 last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 59 listings, with about 13.4 months of supply. Sales were 0 for June… 7 for June last year. Month to month sales dived (0 v 3). I was hoping for somewhere around 12-15 sales for June to show me this segment was coming back… but sales didn’t nudge off the empty mark.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 28 homes listed and approximately 14 months of inventory on the market. The 1 sale recorded for June was dwarfed by last year’s 4 and dropped 2 from last month. Sales haven’t been moving the right way for the last couple of months.

Above $1m, there were 47 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 17.6 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates… There were 8 sales in the Apr-Jun period this year, and 12 sales for the same time last year… The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

Duluth, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Flashback Friday… Duluth, O, Duluth… (lanebailey.com)
Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? (lanebailey.com)

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011

Thursday, 21 July 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, June, 2011, indicate that there were 1548 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 6.05 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for June were at 222, so 276 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year. Coupled with the slight decrease in inventory, things are looking up. Normally at this time of year we should be seeing healthy increases in month to month sales.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1309 listings, with about an 5.5 month supply of homes. Sales were way up from June 2010 (254 v 192). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. Last month this was one of the strongest price/area segments in Gwinnett County. This month it is strong, but not AS strong. The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 205 listings for sale, and about 10.8 months of supply. Oddly, this was one of the weakest segments in the county, again. The 21 sales for June, 2011 were down from the 28 from June last year. Sales should have been closer to 30 (if not 40) units for June, and I’d like to see over 30 for July.

From $400k to $600k, there are 26 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 78 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. Case in point is that we went from a 12 month AR to a 78 month AR because of a lack of sales for the last 3 months (there was 1 sale in June). Just 6 months ago there was 87 months of inventory, though…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 10 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last four months. I was hoping for 2 sales in June… and there were none. It has been quite a while since sales were strong here… the only saving grace is low inventory.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 2 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

Wayback Wednesday… Add-on or Get Out?

Wednesday, 13 July 2011 08:32

Written by Lane Bailey

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I’m not getting this question nearly as much as I used to… but it is still a valid question for many “would-be” buyers (or sellers)…

Should I improve my current home, or just buy a new one?

It isn’t nearly as easy of an answer as it might first seem. Here is my take on it 3 years ago. But there are some changes… Read the old post if you have a moment, then come back and finish this one. I’ll give a few highlights.

Let’s say that you live in a house that has eroded from $250,000 to $225,000 (10%), and you are looking at a house that went from $500,000 to $450,000 (also 10%). If you took the $25,000 loss on your existing home, you would save $50,000 on the step up home. So, you are $25,000 ahead.

Home of Benjamin Harrison, 23rd president of t...

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Well… the house that you might have taken a 10% loss on 3 years ago might be staring at a 25-30% loss now… maybe more, maybe less. But (this is important) that might be starting to change… might… depending on your neighborhood and even the style of house. So, we might start seeing some of those great deal disappearing. At the same time, we might find that a few more prospective sellers can get out of their current home without losing their shirts. If you can’t afford to sell, then the deals are irrelevant.

Also, in the old post I mentioned interest rates… they were around 6% then, and they are around 4.5% now. This CAN’T last.

Combining these two items, home affordability hasn’t been better in a VERY long time. But, you still have to be in a position to make the move… be able to sell your home (and either have equity or the ability to pay off the balance.

Also in the old post I talked about not building too far outside of the “neighborhood norms”. If the average house in your neighborhood is a 3-4 bedroom, 2-3 bath ranch, building a 6 bedroom two story home is NOT going to pay you back. I’m not saying that you can’t do it (but check local ordinances and covenants, THEY might say you can’t), I’m saying that you shouldn’t expect to be able to sell it without pain.

Even if you NEVER plan to sell the house, think about resale. I have sold more than one “I’m never going to move from here” homes for sellers. Life changed and so did their needs. They went and bought new “I’m never going to move from here” homes. Even if you are right… you are never going to move from here, at some point, somebody in the family is likely to sell the house.

If you decide that you want to move up (or down or sideways), give me a call.

Wayback Wednesday… Buyers and Sellers, Same Advice… (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… A Foreclosure Mitigation Too Good to be True… (lanebailey.com)

Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Tuesday, 12 July 2011 08:16

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Norcross GA, May, 2011 indicate that there were 385 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 7.2 month supply of properties. This year has been very strong so far… although it has slowed the last two months… it hasn’t slowed much. May saw 52 sales, slightly above the 49 for April and the 48 for last May, but with the slight decrease in listing inventory the Absorption Rate (AR) still built strength. This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post four strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 225 listings, with about 5 month supply. Sales are up sharply from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (39 v 32). For the last two months, the AR has been in the range of balanced… it got a little better this month. This looks like the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 120 listings for sale, and about 18 months of supply. As strong as the under $200k segment is… this one is that weak. The 7 sales were a considerable drop from last year’s 13 sales, but a good bump from last month’s 3 sales. Of course, this segment has always seemed to lag.

From $400k to $600k, there were 34 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 8.5 months. The Absorption Rate has been dropping for 5 months. This is odd considering the performance of the next segment down, but totally in line with the <$200k segment. May’s 5 sales are down from 2 the month before, and compares favorable to last year’s 2 sales… and the inventory decrease really helped.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listing on the market. Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year. The absorption rate is at 1.5 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another in May, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there is only 1 listing. Only. For June there are 8 listings… expect a major change in this segment.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to 24 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

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Category Archives: sellers

Wayback Wednesday… Dirty Little Secrets…

Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2011

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011

Wayback Wednesday… Add-on or Get Out?

Should I improve my current home, or just buy a new one?

Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2011

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Category Archives: sellers

Wayback Wednesday… Dirty Little Secrets…

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2011

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011

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Wayback Wednesday… Add-on or Get Out?

Should I improve my current home, or just buy a new one?

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2011

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