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Category Archives: sellers

Wayback Wednesday… Optimist of Pessimist?

Wednesday, 15 December 2010 08:16
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Detling Aerodrome Estate. Now used as a busine...
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Two years ago I wrote this post…  And it is almost embarrassing…  I was SO wrong.  So wrong.

Or maybe I was right, but just a couple of years too early (nope, I think that saying I was wrong is closer to the truth).

In effect, my opinion was the real estate was poised for a recovery.  The prices were cheap, and mortgage rates were almost impossibly low.

Prices are lower… and so are interest rates.  There are still deals out there (but at least there is a fight for some of them).  But the fact remains that I misread the market, then.  I tend to be a little more cynical about it now…

But, all of the same forces that were lined up pointing to a recovery, like the media talking it down, investors like Warren Buffet looking at real estate, etc., are still there.

What I hadn’t banked on was unemployment and how it would affect the real estate market.  Unemployment is up about 30% from where it was two years ago.  Despite the bailouts, government takeovers and TARP, people aren’t working.  Until that happens, we won’t see a real estate recovery…  But when it happens, it will happen in a big way.  I still believe that.  It won’t wind back up as fast as things unwound, but the best deals will vaporize from the market.

As mentioned, I have had buyers that have had to compete for properties at the entry level.  It is a glimmer of hope…

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010

Tuesday, 14 December 2010 08:46
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
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Market stats for Lilburn, November, 2010, indicates that there are 425 properties on the market (as of November 30th). Overall, there is about a 11.8 month supply of properties.  Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County.  Absorption Rates had been improving since March, until September.  In fact, in March there were 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 264 listings, with about an 8.6 month supply.  This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March, until October.  Sales were on par with November 2009 (28 v 24).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 134 listings for sale, and about 28.7 months of supply. This segment has also been getting stronger each month since March, until September.  There were only 2 sales in September 2010, compared to 11 last year and 6 in October v 18 in 2009.  November held 6 sales in 2010 v 9 in 2009.  The expected end of the tax credit last year started pushing sales down in Nov. 2009.

Snow in Lilburn

Snow in Lilburn

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 33 months. There  were no sales in this segment in May, June, July or October this year.  There were only 4 sales in August and September(combined). November had 1 sale (2 last year). Last summer was much stronger overall.  With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There has been one sale in the last four months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August).  One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Gwinnett Market Report Preview, November 2010

Saturday, 11 December 2010 08:38
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...
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I was just online grabbing a few numbers for the upcoming market reports for Gwinnett County, GA.  Starting around 12/16/10, we will rolling out the reports for Lilburn, Lawrenceville, Duluth, Suwanee, Sugar Hill, Buford and Norcross, GA.  The reports are pretty in-depth.  They will include:

  • Reports broken out by price segment
    • Under $200k
    • $200k-$400k
    • $400k-$600k
    • $600k-$800k
    • $800k-$1m
    • Over $1m
    • Overall Market
  • Each locality includes the Absorption Rate for each price segment
  • Each segment includes analysis regarding acceleration/deceleration and what factors may be affecting that segment
  • New this month, each price/location will be linked to the search for properties meeting those criteria

Preview…

It isn’t pretty…  Things generally slow down this time of year, and last year was a strong year because of the tax credits that had been scheduled to end around this time (before being extended).  Those things combined to make November look pretty bad.  We’ll be going in-depth starting next week.

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Zestimate Accuracy in the Atlanta GA Area…

Thursday, 09 December 2010 08:54
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Representation of high accuracy and low precision.
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Ever since they were first introduced, Zillow’s ‘Zestimates’ have created a stir.  Some herald them, while other decry them.  But, Zillow’s Zestimates are a great tool for homeowners and those looking at buying, whether they are familiar with the area or not.

But the Zestimates DO have a limit.  They aren’t terribly accurate.  On the good side, though, Zillow is nice enough to tell us how accurate they are for some areas.  But, even the accuracy may need to be interpreted.

Let’s see if we can shed some light on Zestimate accuracy for the Atlanta, GA, area. For the sake of this example let’s assume that the Zestimate is exactly $200,000.  This is a nice, round number that makes calculations easier.

  • Median error for the Atlanta area is 15.3%.  That means that half of the homes have an error of less than 15.3%, while half have an error higher than 15.3%.  In other words, half of the homes that would be valued at $200,000 are worth between $169,400 and $230,600.  the other half are worth more than $230,600 or less than $164,900 (should be around 25% too high, 25% too low).
  • About 58% are actually worth between $160,000 and $240,000.
  • About 36% are worth between $180,000 and $220,000.
  • Only 19% are worth between $190,000 and $210,000.

The bottom line is that Zestimates, in the Atlanta area, are pretty rough.  There is only a 1 in 5 chance of the home’s value being within 5% of the Zestimate.  In other words, it is not a precision tool…

In my experience, most sellers are sure that the Zestimate is too low, and most buyers are convinced it is too high.  It is just as likely to be one as the other…

But Zestimates ARE still useful…

Like any tool, they need to be used the right way.  My Zillow contacts (and I have met and enjoyed talking with several of the fine folks at Zillow) have stated that the distribution of Zestimate error is just as likely to be high as low.  Look at the target in the graphic.  None of the shots hit the center of the target… but the AVERAGE of them is quite close.  And the same holds true of Zestimates.

Taken as a whole, when looking at larger areas (the larger, the better), they provide a very accurate look at the broader market.  But, as we narrow down to more specific areas, they get cloudier and cloudier.

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Wayback Wednesday… Is NOW the Time to Buy?

Wednesday, 08 December 2010 08:57
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National Association of Realtors streetscape
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Listening to the NAR (National Association of Realtors®, it is ALWAYS the right time to buy.  If the market is going up, they pound the “buy the rising market” drum.  If the market is going down, they beat on the “buy into value” drum.  Frankly, I’m tired of it, and they have killed a massive amount of credibility by constantly trying to spin reality for “our” perceived benefit.

A couple of years ago this week, I was on Social Media Edge, on Blog Talk Radio, talking with Ken Cook about this very thing.  I’ve had my strong opinions about this for quite a while.  And, while for some folks, it is a GREAT time to buy, for others it isn’t.  I haven’t ever been shy about saying it, even when I have taken flak from my peers for not “cheerleading the market”.

On Social Media Edge, we talked for about 20 minutes about this.  Here is a link to the original post, and it has links to the Blog Talk Radio site, as well as a podcast of the broadcast.  Stop in, check it out.

If you are wondering if NOW is the time for you to buy, give Lane a call.  678-200-5895.

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