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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2012

Monday, 11 February 2013 12:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, October, 2012, indicate that there were 794 properties on the market, down 42 from last month.  Overall, there was about a 3.0 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for October were at 263, so 247 sales was a decrease, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 234.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 637 listings, with about a 2.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were down from October, 2011 (226 v 247), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were over 1100 listings v just over 600 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 2.66 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were up from 218 in September.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 135 listings for sale, and about 6.8 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side.  The 18 sales for October, 2012 edged the 15 from last year, but and passed the 13 sales last month.  But, we were close to Balanced Market territory here, but have slipped back to Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are 14 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 4.7 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 2 sales for October, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 33 four months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was 1 sale in October. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012 and 1 in May.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July, but none in August. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Friday, 08 February 2013 11:00
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Market stats for Buford, GA, October, 2012 indicate that there were 336 properties on the market, a reduction of 28.  Overall, there was about an 4.5 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 76 sales for October, up from 67 last month but slightly down from the 77 sales last Oct11.  It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but the A/R is nothing to sneeze at.  It is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 162 listings, with a 3.2 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were up from last month 58 (v 47 last month), and compared to last year (51 sales in Oct11).  But, the A/R is WAY under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a solid seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 135 listings for sale, and about 6.9 months of supply.  The 14 sales recorded were flat from the 14 last month and from the 18 sales last year for October.  This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but had improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is fairly balanced, though slightly tilted towards buyers..

From $400k to $600k, there were 18 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 7.7 Months.  There have been 7 sales in the last 3 months (0 for August, 4 for September and 3 for October).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  Just for comparison, there were 11 sales in the Aug-Oct period in 2011.  This segment has been bouncing all over the place… but it is VERY strong right now.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 8 listings.  Absorption Rate is 36+ months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 8 has made things look less slow… but there were 7 sales in this segment last year including 3 sales in March, 1 in June and 0 in October.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 3 homes listed.  Trends are hardly definable.  Listings are down.  June recorded the first sales since December, 2012.  There were 0 sale in October.  But it still has a 9.0 month Absorption Rate.

Above $1m, there were 10 properties listed.  There was sale in the segment in April… of 2009…and then May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011… also 1 in July and September.  There was 1 sale in October.  So, we have 15 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Thursday, 07 February 2013 11:00
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2012 indicates that there were 122 homes on the market.  A decline of 6 from last month.  Overall, there is about an 4.1 month supply (4.6 last month).  There were 36 sales, compared to 31 last month and 18 last October.  Of course, then there were 169 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 81 listings, with about 3.6 months supply.  There were 28 sales this October, well above last year for the same time (18).  There were 24 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  This time of year we often see a slight decrease in listings… but we are already very low.  In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 36 listings for sale, and about 5.7 months of supply.  Last October there was an 33 month supply.  there were 0 sales, this year there were 7.  Last month had 7 sales.  That makes four of the last five months look reasonably strong.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 2 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 4.5 months, but with 1 sale this month (and May and August single sales being the only others since last November), it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Wednesday, 06 February 2013 13:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2012 indicate that there were 350 properties on the market (down from 406 last month). Overall, there was about a 3.9 month supply of properties (virtually unchanged from last month). September had 82 sales. Compared to October, 2011 (83), this year was flat, but inventory was down compared to 2011 (539). There were 78 sales last month, so this month was up a bit, but nothing like August.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 94 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 2.8 month supply (compared to 5.2 months supply last year). This October’s sales were 33 (42 last year, 32 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Sales may have been limited by constricted inventory.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 157 listings for sale (246 last year, 168 last month), and 3.5 months of supply. Sales in October, 2012 were 36 (38 in September), compared with 31 for the same period in 2011. Sales have been consistent and strong for the last few months, but fell off somewhat last month. I’d like to see it stay around 40 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 6.4 months (6.7 in September). There were 8 sales in October (6 last month)… flat from 8 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 23 sales this year and 28 for the same period last year. This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but slacked a little the last two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 24 listings, with about a 14.4 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (1 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 5… For the same time last year, the sales were 7. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now…

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 7 homes listed and 7.0 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale each in March, July, August, September and 1 sale in October.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 19 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 14.3 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for April, last previously recorded). In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 28 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There were 2 sales in August and 2 sales in October.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Yep… A Seller’s Market. But What Does That Mean NOW?

Tuesday, 05 February 2013 09:00
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Supply and Demand

Supply and Demand (Photo credit: ATENCION:)

Normally, a Seller’s Market means that conditions are generally better for sellers than for buyers.  There is, in effect, more demand than there is supply.  And, usually, that means that sellers are more in control of pricing and terms for their homes.  Prices generally rise and there are fewer demands made upon sellers in regards to inspections, and other concessions.

 

But things aren’t always “normal”.  Now is a great example of that.

Right now, the majority of Gwinnett is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  Below about half a million dollars, Absorption Rates remain under the magical 6 months… in some cases, even below 3 months.  Above half a million, things aren’t quite as rosy, but they are WAY stronger than they have been for years.

But all is not beer and pizza in Seller Land.  In fact, it may be FAR from fun to be a seller in today’s market, no matter what the numbers look like.  The reality is that bank-owned properties are skewing the numbers… or skewering, depending on how you want to look at it.  What has happened is that bank-owned inventory has come to dominate the market.  It may or may not be the majority, but there is enough of a presence that it pushes the pricing down for all of the homes that are actually selling.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing depends on whether you are a buyer or a seller.  As a buyer, it means that the homes you look are are either priced quite competitively (and don’t stay on the market very long) or they aren’t… and they stay on the market forever.

One of the ways that I can see this is by looking at the “Days on Market” (DoM) stats while preparing Market Reports.  They are jumping ALL over the place.  This isn’t a direct sign, but rather one that is more deduction.  In some segments I am seeing DoMs bounce from over 100 days to under 50 days and back over 100 in back to back to back months.  This means that homes that every once in a while a home that sells has been on the market a VERY long time… pushing up the average, then there are none of those “old-timers” the next month… then another one pops through.

What does it all mean?

Simply… as a buyer, if you see a home you like, and it is priced well, there will likely be competition for it.  Don’t expect that you can toss a low offer across the table and get a reply.  In fact, I have seen a LOT of multiple offer situations on well-priced properties.  As a seller, don’t expect that you can price your home at the level you thought it was worth a few years ago.  You are competing with bank-owned properties and their primary motivation is to not own the property any longer than they need to in order to almost break even… and their definition of break even may include insurance payments and government inducements to hurry up and sell it.

One may say that the worst aspects of both a seller’s market and a buyer’s market are present right now… fierce competition (for buyers) for the “right” properties and weak pricing for sellers).

If you really want to sell your property, let’s talk…

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