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Tag Archives: business of real estate

Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Thursday, 02 December 2010 08:51
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Buford Dam on the Chattahoochee River in north...
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Market stats for Buford, GA, October, 2010 indicate that there were 616 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 11 month supply of properties.  Sales were down radically in July (19 v 71 for 2009), but August was back in the realm (57 v 61 for 2009).  September was slightly below last year (52 v 60 for 2009).  October was back to the pits (60 v 89 in 2009).  The magic has been a little underwhelming since June.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 314 listings, with a 9 month supply.  Sales for July were down by 70%.  There was actually one extra sale for August, but two less in September.  October was down from 51 in 2009 to 37 this year.  May was the best absorption rate of the year, and it has been going downhill since, but actually got better in October because of the terribly weak July dropping off of the 3 month rate.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 234 listings for sale, and about  12.3 months of supply.  Again, July was the dog, with sales down by 75%.  August, September and October were also down, but the absorption rate improved significantly with July dropping off.

From $400k to $600k, there were 45 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 22.5 months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 6 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 2 sales in this segment since November… but one was in September.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 5 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (Nov. 09 and Feb 10), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by 50% compared to last month.

Above $1m, there were 12 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009… still…

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Homes ARE Selling!

Wednesday, 01 December 2010 08:39
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This home is owned by a couple, who are writer...
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A couple of years ago I wrote about a deal on a property I ran across.  It was priced around $330,000.  At the time I said that it would have around $75,000 equity.  It sold for $300,000.  The most recent comps in the neighborhood have sold around $400,000 in the last couple of months.  Also of note, it was only on the market for about two weeks.

Since then, I have posted a couple of other times about properties that looked like good deals.  None of them were on the market for more than a couple of weeks… often less.

I have also been working recently with a buyer that made 7 offers before getting one through.  In 4 of those cases (at least) the properties were in multiple offer situations.  Our offers were close to (in one case… OVER) list price.  These were properties that were on the market LESS than a week. He wasn’t the only one… other buyers I have dealt with over the last year have been in the same boat… lots of offers and a lot of multiple offer situations.

Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden
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So, in what is supposed to be THE worst housing market since Adam and Eve were foreclosed in the Garden of Eden, there are properties selling for OVER list price, within DAYS of coming on the market.  Of course, there are others that languish for months (or years) without so much as an offer… and barely a look.

If you are a seller, the secret is the price.  If you are giving it away, there WILL be a line.  A low price MAY actually start a bidding war… or it may not.  But price HAS to represent value to the buyer.

If you are a buyer, time may NOT be on your side.  Low prices and killer mortgage rates are pulling people in.  There is a good chance that the property YOU are attracted to, if priced right, will be attractive to someone else.  Make realistic offers (regardless of the list price).

Of course, a LOT more goes into it… if you need an agent that understands it, feel free to give me a shout.

Here is a link to the original post…

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Tuesday, 30 November 2010 08:29
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DSCN0583
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2010 indicate that there are 232 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 11 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July, but inventories have been rising.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 156 listings, with under 12.3 months supply.  Sales are also about 65% of the level last year over the last three months.  Sales appear to be decelerating, but perked up for October… still down 17 v 24 compared to last year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 64 listings for sale, and about 14.8 months of supply.  As recently as May, there was only a 6.75 month supply.  September was better than August, but still pretty weak overall.  October was weaker yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are 8 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 24 months, but with 1 sale in the last 5 months, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There have only been 3 sales in this segment this year.

Above $600k, the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 17 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Speaking of Custom v Catalog v Mass Produced…

Monday, 29 November 2010 08:23
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Manufactured homes side walls are built and th...
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Yesterday, I wrote a post about Coach-Built cars of the 1920s and 1930s.  As I was wring about those cars, and the Coach-Builder catalogs that grew out of them… and the mass-produced cars, I started thinking about the comparison with homes in the US.  And there is an interesting comparison.

Back in the 1970s and 1980s, my grandparents had a wonderful lake property in northern Michigan.  It was on Black Lake.  It had been in the family (mostly) for generations.  When I was very young, it had a couple of one room cabins that had been built in the 1930s.  There was no running water or indoor plumbing.

But then, in the early 70s, my grandparents had a double wide mobile home put on the lot.  It wasn’t a palace, but it was WAY nicer than the little cabins in replaced.  And it cost MUCH less than having a “regular” home built on the lot.

Bulk materials stored indoors at a manufacture...
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There is a stigma with manufactured housing, though.  It isn’t just “some people”, either.  Some lenders won’t finance a manufactured home.  Others have a much higher rate.

And those are kind of like mass-produced cars… built on an assembly line… using components that are often tailored specifically for them. Constructions is actually VERY streamlined.  The parts fit, so it is largely a matter of assembling all of the pre-made components.  It is efficient… less waste… less time… even less energy.

On the other end of the scale are custom homes.  There are a couple of flavors, but for the purposes of this discussion, we’ll lump any home built completely on-site as being custom built.  That would be the vast majority of homes.  And it is a terribly inefficient process.  Just think about it…

  • Modern Desert Mobile Home/ Manufactured House
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    coordinating dozens of contractors to come out at just the right time

  • coordinating multiple inspections of the property… at just the right time.
  • while there are efforts made at maximizing the usage of the purchased materials, building one house at a time can’t utilize materials as well as mapping them out for multiple builds.
  • engineering for one home, or even a small run of similar homes, can’t be as rigorous as it can be for a mass-produced run.
  • same with design…

Honestly, I’m not really a cheerleader for pre-manufactured housing… but I can see some writing on a distant wall.  At some point, the efficiencies of manufactured or component housing will outrun the deficiencies. Lowering the cost and speeding the build-time, along with increasing the energy efficiency, space utilization and material efficiency will move in front of tradition.

Manufactured home ready for interior drywall i...
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Already, in various places around the world, component housing is picking up steam.  And I think it is only a matter of time until the idea catches on here.  In effect, a buyer could choose from the components that they want to make up a home… plug in various parts of the plan… add an extra bedroom, media room or garage space as the home is being designed… plug and play.  The various parts would be assembled in a factory, and then shipped to the location.  At that point, the house would basically be joined together.  (Have you ever seen a Bruster’s Ice Cream Shop or Nathan’s Hot Dog store being installed?  They come on a truck and the property goes from being a parking lot and a pad to having a building in a day).

Another option is that similar to the log home kit model.  Most log homes are built from kits.  The vendor literally builds the shell at the mill, makes all of the adjustments to the structure, then disassembles and ships the parts… numbered like a puzzle… to be built on the site.  That might be an intermediate step…

As I said… it is only a matter of time… but that could be a generation away.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010

Saturday, 27 November 2010 08:14
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Finder USA building in Suwanee, GA
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2010 indicate that there are 5601 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.7 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 159 listings, with about a 8.7 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed… although sales for July and August (19 and 15) were exactly the same last year and at 18, there was only one less sale in September v last year.  October sales were down from 27 last year to 22 this year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 298 listings for sale, and 10 months of supply.  Sales for September 2010 were 30 compared with 39 for the same period in 2009.  Still weak, but much better than last month.  For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 79 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 13.9 months.  While 3 sales this year don’t compare favorably with the 7 sales last year, the three month average is reasonably close (17 v 20 in 2009).  There are fewer listings, though.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 26 month supply.  We can look directly to a reduction in inventory for the drop in absorption rate from 45 months in February… sales are still slower than last year, and seem to be decelerating (3 this year from Aug-Oct v 10 last year).

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 78 months of inventory on the market.  There has only been 3 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April and May).  Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Aug-Oct both this year and last).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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