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Tag Archives: buyers

Duluth, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 05 December 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, September, 2011 indicated that there were 444 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.2 month supply of properties.  Sales in September were 62, slightly up from 60 a year earlier.  But, sales were slightly down compared to the prior month (66).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much in October.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 167 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.6 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for September were up sharply this year v last year (44 v 35), but down compared to September, 2010 (46).   The Absorption Rate (A/R) is rocking most of the county… but sales have decelerated ever so slightly.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 123 listings for sale, and about 8.2 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were slightly down compared to October, 2010 (12v 14) and flat compared to last month.  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is only doing average…

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 14.7 months. October brought in 3 sales. There were 3 last year and 2 last month. As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here. Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, and seemingly getting weaker.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 43 listings, with about 11.7 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for October… 6 for October last year.  Month to month sales were flat (3 v 3).  After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, but it has weakened some this month.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 24 homes listed and approximately 72 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sale recorded for October was beaten by last year’s 1 and flat the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 0 sales for the last two months have killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t

Above $1m, there were 38 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates… There were 6 sales in the Aug-Oct period this year, and 7 for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 02 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, October, 2011, indicate that there were 1346 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 5.2 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for October were at 154, so 263 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… even more than last month… but just slightly.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1133 listings, with about a 4.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from October 2010 (228 v 138).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.69 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.  Last month I was hoping that October would be a follow up… and it VERY much is what I was looking for.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 184 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again.  With as strong as the segment down was, this one was weak, again.  The 15 sales for October, 2011 were down from the 16 from last year.  Sales should have been closer to 25 units for October.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 16.5 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  August saw no sales and September only had 3, so even though there were 1 sale for October, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June.  There were 0 sales in October, 2010.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales.  While the long term trend is looking better, it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 18 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last three months.  This is one of the few segments I track anywhere in the county to have an increase in the number of listings. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there is 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 28 November 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, October, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of October 31st). Overall, there was about an 8.4 month supply of properties and 60 properties that closed (sold) in October.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (38) and an increase from September, 2011 (44 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 8.43 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).  And for October, Lilburn had one of the best month-to-month sales increases.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 306 listings, with about an 7.3 month supply with 53 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales increased markedly from last month (35), and were also up dramatically from last year (32).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 109 listings for sale, and about 12.1 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little. There were 7 sales compared to 6 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  It is one of the few market/price segments that had an increase in listings.  I’m not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August, September or October.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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What Can “Fix” Housing?

Friday, 18 November 2011 08:00
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There are still a few politicians, and a lot of real estate professionals talking about the government “fixing” the real estate market.  But the question is…

Is there a way or a role for the government to fix the housing market?

We’ve seen a substantial tax credit for purchasing a home, both for first time buyers and for existing (hopefully) move-up buyers.  And we’ve seen calls for more of the same.  But at the same time, there are a lot of experts that don’t think that the tax credits created many sales that wouldn’t have happened without them.

Even $8000 isn’t that much of a motivating factor for someone to make a $150K+ purchase.  And most of the people that took advantage of the tax credit were only hastened by the tax credit, not created by it… in other words, they would have purchased the home anyway, only their time-table was altered… in many cases, only by a couple of months.  Looking at past sales, it is obvious when the credit expired.  Sales increased at a rapid pace, and then dropped precipitously as the credit expired.  Sales remained well under par for many months after the credit expired.  Some economists estimate that the $8000 tax credit had a cost of over $44,000 for each sale it “created”.

There are other ideas floating around on Capitol Hill about ways that the federal government can spur housing sales.  And there are a lot of folks… especially in the halls of the National Association of REALTORS® that feel that housing needs to come back in order for the economy to rebound.

I think they have it backwards.  In order for real estate to rebound, people have to feel secure with the job market.  How can someone be expected to make a 30 year plan (getting a mortgage, for example) when they are worried about their job in the next few months?  So, focusing on job creating, especially by smaller businesses, and removing impediments to starting or expanding small businesses would do wonders.  Instead of tax credits focused on housing, tax relief for people starting businesses would do more for the housing market.

What do you think?

Wayback Wednesday… REOs and Credit Pulls

Wednesday, 16 November 2011 08:00
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Two years ago I wrote about this…  On many Foreclosure and Short Sale properties, sellers are requiring buyers to qualify with a specified lender… sometimes even the lending branch of the seller.

It doesn’t seem to be that big of a deal, right?  I mean all you have to do is call up the specified lender, give them some info over the phone and let them make sure you are qualified to complete the sale of the property.  But the problem is that many buyer end up offering on multiple properties over several months… and that means that the credit pulls can actually HARM the credit of the buyer.

There still aren’t any rules regarding this practice.  And I still think it needs to be stopped…  I can understand it from the perspective of the seller, but it may actually be damaging to the buyer’s credit.

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