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Tag Archives: gwinnett

Gwinnett Market Impressions…

Friday, 06 April 2012 08:00
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrenceville GA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I won’t have the March sales figures for Gwinnett County for a few more days, but I do have a few thoughts on what I have seen from the Listing numbers I pulled down on the 1st of April.

Listings are down.  And that is weird.  VERY weird.  Not just down year over year… that isn’t weird at all.  But they are actually down from month to month.  And in this market, that doesn’t happen (although I can’t really say that now… because it just happened).  Looking back over the last few years, listings tended to bottom out in January… March would be up over February, April over March.  We’ve been going down for the last two months instead.

Of course, I still hear the media and a LOT of other real estate agents telling me about the “coming wave of foreclosures” just waiting for the banks to decide that they should release them.  If they had the “shadow inventory” everyone is talking about, they would be releasing it.  For this market, there wouldn’t be a better time.  Listings are down and this is when sales are generally moving up.

Looking back at the last year only confirms this.  We’ve seen Absorption Rates under 6 months in most of the segments with the dropping inventories.  (Translation: This isn’t a shocker…).

What does all of this mean?

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County
Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think we are seeing a bottom for some segments… specifically homes priced under $200,000 to $400,000 (I don’t know exactly where the line is… but homes under $200k are solid right now… homes over $400k are looking pretty shaky still).  Could prices erode further? Absolutely.  But I think that without a change for the worse in the economy, we are probably at the bottom of those properties here in Gwinnett County.  The higher price ranges might be bottoming or might not… but I have a lot less certainty over $400k.

There is actual competition for properties at the entry level.  Multiple offers and homes selling over list price.  The homes that are priced “right” are getting snapped up.  Over-priced houses are still languishing on the market, though.  But a couple of years ago, there was hardly a “priced right”.

 

Now we just need to get the higher priced segments moving again…

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 02 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Norcross GA, February, 2012 indicate that there were 260 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.6 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April, 2011 was below 2010)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  February saw 48 sales, ever so slightly below the 43 for February, 2011, and well under the 40 for January.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 139 listings, with about 3.5 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (42 v 32 in Feb11 & 33 Jan12).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At just under a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 83 listings for sale, and about 17.8 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 4 sales were well off compared to last year’s 7 sales, and down from last month’s 6 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  We really need a strong March for this segment to look good.  Right now it is among the weakest in the county.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 22.5 months. The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January. February’s 1 sale was flat with 1 from the month before and from last year’s 4 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February only had 1 sale.  Of course, that is better than the 0 last February. 

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Friday, 30 March 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2012 indicated that there were 449 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.8 month supply of properties. Sales in January were 30, slightly down from 40 a year earlier. But, sales were way down compared to the prior month (57). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 180 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 7.1 month supply. The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55. Sales in January were down this year v last year (13 v 23), and way down compared to last month (35). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county… but it has decelerated again this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 131 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving mostly the wrong way (up) since August. Sales were up compared to January, 2011 (10 v 7) but down compared to last month (14). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 46 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 8.1 months. January brought in 4 sales. There were 6 last year and 5 last month. As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here. Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 9.9 months of supply. Sales were 3 for January… 4 for January last year. Month to month sales were actually up (3 v 2). Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market. The 0 sales recorded for January was flat with last year’s 0 and from the 0 from last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R. It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 36 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 54 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 2 sales in the Nov-Jan period this year, and 3 for the same time last year. Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 0 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

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I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 26 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, February, 2012, indicate that there were 1127 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 5.0 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for February were at 152, so 196 sales was a solid increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This year we are not bad, but not quite better than last month (213 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 942 listings, with about a 4.5 month supply of homes.  Sales were well up from February 2011 (181 v 141).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.46 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is largely due to strong sales, coupled with lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down from 205 in January.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 163 listings for sale, and about 13.6 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 13 sales for February, 2012 were up from the 10 from last year.  They were up significantly from the 7 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for February.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 15 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 22.5 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 2 sales for February, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There was 1 sales in February, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 three months ago).  While the long term trend was looking better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 14.4 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 0 sales in February.  There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

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I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Friday, 23 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Buford, GA, February, 2012 indicate that there were 431 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 6.5 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 64 sales for February, up from 52 last month but only slightly up from the 60 sales last February (2011).  It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but it is much better than it has been.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 257 listings, with a 5.7 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were slightly down from last month (40 v 42), but pretty flat compared to last year (41 sales in February, 2011).  But, the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a slight seller’s market.  It is heartening that despite the increase in listings, the A/R still dropped.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 126 listings for sale, and about 6.8 months of supply.  The 23 sales recorded were way up from the 8 from last month and up a bit from the 18 sales last year for February.  This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is one of the stronger $200k-$400k segments in the county, again, with increasing strength.

From $400k to $600k, there were 27 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 16.2 Months.  There have been 5 sales in the last 3 months (4 sales for December and 1 for January, 0 for February).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the next two months I was looking for…  December was back in the right direction, and the drop in listings certainly helps.  January certainly wasn’t the month to call a recovery, nor February.  Just for comparison, there were 5 sales in the Dec.-Feb. period in 2010/2011.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings. Absorption Rate is 5 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 5 homes has made things look less slow… but there were 4 sales in this segment last year… and 1 sale in February.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 5 homes listed.  But, with no sales last year (2011), obviously trends are hardly definable.  Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 11 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011.  So, we have 44 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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