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Tag Archives: gwinnett

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00
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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 12 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2011 indicates that there are 169 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 5.0 month supply. There were 18 sales, compared to 27 last month and 20 last October. The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 118 listings, with about 4.8 months supply. There were 18 sales this October, slightly more than last year for the same time (17). Last month there were 25 sales. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month was a big drop.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 44 listings for sale, and about 33 months of supply.  Last October there was an 14.8 month supply.  Last October there were 17 sales, this year there were 0.  Last month also had 2.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months, but with 4 sales since last October, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. There were only 3 sales in this segment last year. In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 09 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2011 indicate that there are 539 properties on the market (down from 579 last month).  Overall, there is about an 6.6 month supply of properties (down from 6.7 last month).  October had 83 sales.  Compared to 2010 (58), that was VERY strong.  Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (601).  The last four months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 177 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.2 month supply (159 and 8.7, respectively last year).  This August’s sales were OK, at 42 (just 22 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county.  As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months.  I was looking for sales to hit 35+, and they did… we need a good follow-up month for November.  I should start having good numbers soon.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 246 listings for sale (311 last year), and 7.0 months of supply.  Sales in October, 2011 were 31 (42 in September), compared with 31 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is at 6.6 months (6.5 in September).  There were 8 sales in October (5 in September)… way up compared to last October (3 v 8).  Looking at the three month average, there were 28 sales this year and 17 for the same period last year.  This segment has gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but for the last few years has dropped off pretty heavily as school started.  I’d be quite happy with 10 sales over each of the next two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 19 listings, with about a 8.1 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there was 1 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 7…  For the same time last year, the sales were 3.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one as strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 6 homes listed and 18 months of inventory on the market. There were only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 29 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 87 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties.  The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses.  It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.  I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 05 December 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, September, 2011 indicated that there were 444 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.2 month supply of properties.  Sales in September were 62, slightly up from 60 a year earlier.  But, sales were slightly down compared to the prior month (66).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much in October.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 167 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.6 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for September were up sharply this year v last year (44 v 35), but down compared to September, 2010 (46).   The Absorption Rate (A/R) is rocking most of the county… but sales have decelerated ever so slightly.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 123 listings for sale, and about 8.2 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were slightly down compared to October, 2010 (12v 14) and flat compared to last month.  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is only doing average…

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 14.7 months. October brought in 3 sales. There were 3 last year and 2 last month. As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here. Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, and seemingly getting weaker.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 43 listings, with about 11.7 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for October… 6 for October last year.  Month to month sales were flat (3 v 3).  After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, but it has weakened some this month.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 24 homes listed and approximately 72 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sale recorded for October was beaten by last year’s 1 and flat the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 0 sales for the last two months have killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t

Above $1m, there were 38 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates… There were 6 sales in the Aug-Oct period this year, and 7 for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 02 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, October, 2011, indicate that there were 1346 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 5.2 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for October were at 154, so 263 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… even more than last month… but just slightly.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1133 listings, with about a 4.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from October 2010 (228 v 138).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.69 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.  Last month I was hoping that October would be a follow up… and it VERY much is what I was looking for.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 184 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again.  With as strong as the segment down was, this one was weak, again.  The 15 sales for October, 2011 were down from the 16 from last year.  Sales should have been closer to 25 units for October.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 16.5 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  August saw no sales and September only had 3, so even though there were 1 sale for October, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June.  There were 0 sales in October, 2010.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales.  While the long term trend is looking better, it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 18 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last three months.  This is one of the few segments I track anywhere in the county to have an increase in the number of listings. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there is 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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