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Tag Archives: gwinnett

I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise..

Thursday, 13 January 2011 08:56
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2005 29 Jan - Atlanta Ice Storm - Spring St. (...
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I was working over the market data for Gwinnett County, GA… outside of Atlanta.  And the numbers were a bit surprising.  They were good… Almost across the board…

Why am I not excited?  I want to be excited.  I want to shout to the world that Gwinnett County’s real estate market has turned.

But I’m skeptical…

Generally, December has to lowest number of listings that we are going to see throughout the year.  Seldom will we see an increase in listings… in fact, only in the high end (where listings are often on the market over a year) do we see around the same number of listings in December as in November or January.

But this year, there was a dramatic dip in November, related to October.  There was just as dramatic of an uptick for December , compared to November.

So, was November an anomaly or was December the odd duck?

2005 29 Jan - Atlanta Ice Storm - North Ave Br...
Image via Wikipedia

My honest guess is that December is the odd one out.  Looking at the last several month, it seems obvious.  Here are the sales percentages vs the same month in 2009. Keep in mind, this is after the tax credit expired.

  • August – Down 11.5%
  • September – Down 22.6%
  • October – Down 24.0%
  • November – Down 27.3%
  • December – Down 4.0%

Obviously, that is quite strong.  But is real?  It will take a while to figure out.  We’ll have a better idea in a month or so, when the January numbers solidify, but we will still be looking at an “unstimulated” market compared to the market last year which was paying a $8,000 Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers, and $6,500 for Existing Home Buyers.  So, it will be September or October before we really can compare 2010 numbers with 2011 numbers and see an honest comparison.

I’m Hopeful…

I certainly have reservations.  I am mentally preparing for a boomerang in January numbers.  But I remain hopeful.  I’m looking forward to the January reports, which will come out starting in mid-February.

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Winter Driving Tips… Georgia Style…

Tuesday, 11 January 2011 08:48
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Oak Grove St., Minneapolis, Minnesota
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I will admit that I am a transplanted Northerner.  I grew up in Michigan (and Virginia)… and moved here from Minnesota, 21 years ago.  After 6 winters in MN, I learned a few things about driving in the snow… and after 21 years here in Georgia, I learned a few more things.

First, a Word for Recent Transplanted Northerners

This is NOT the snow you drove in in Minneapolis, Chicago, Boston, Denver, St. Louis… whatever.  This is a completely different beast.  To begin with, it is generally wetter, which means that it compacts to something like ice.  The temperatures are often quite conducive to this happening.  The bottom line on that point is that driving the same way here is you might have somewhere colder will likely result in a trip to the ditch.

There is also very little snow removal equipment.  You will NOT see a line of plows running the Interstate highway… in fact, you might not see ANY plows running down the highway.  You will not see plows on neighborhood streets or even secondary roads.  You might see a sand truck on an overpass.  It seems that the primary weapon against frozen roads is the weather… it won’t be cold long.

So, chill out a little…

Next, a Word for My 4 Wheel Drive Friends

Four wheel drive means that you can make your rig go in low traction situations.  That means that you will be going faster when you hit the ditch following the ice covered road.  I am a Jeeper, and I have a full size 4wd truck.  On ice, they don’t do that much better than a Honda…  That isn’t to say that 4wd vehicles aren’t useful.  They absolutely are…  But, they have limitations.  Respect the limitations and you won’t have to dig out your insurance card or suffer the embarrassment of sitting in the ditch while someone drives by in a Buick.

What CAN you do?

  • Honestly, if you don’t really need to get out on the road, don’t.
  • If you are afraid to drive in the snow/ice, don’t.
  • Those prone to panic… don’t drive until things clear up.
  • If you are going to venture out on the roads, dress (or carry clothes) appropriately.  If you are involved in an accident, don’t assume that the Police are going to be able to respond quickly.
  • Make sure that you have a cell phone with a charge on it.
  • Make sure that people know where you are going, your route and when you should arrive.
  • This really isn’t the time to text and drive, talk and drive or rock out on the radio.  As you are driving down the road, the conditions can change and you need to be able to concentrate on driving…  If you hit a patch of glare ice, you won’t have time to tell mom you will call her back.  And you don’t want your girlfriend to hear you scream like a little girl if you spin your car.
  • Keep your fuel tank fairly full.  It is WAY more embarrassing to run out of gas in the snow that to get stuck.
  • Remember that road conditions can be different from spot to spot… patches of ice, patches of clear, slush, etc.

I find that what I like is a consistent surface.  The biggest cause of accidents is trying to change velocity or direction faster than traffic allows.  Right after that would be a change in the road’s traction.

If you are driving on snow that is consistent, you might be sliding a little… but if you are used to that slipping and factor it into your driving, you may have a big problem if you hit a spot of regular pavement.  The same holds true if you you hit a patch of ice when you are driving on mostly snow.

Of course, the biggest problem is changing direction or velocity faster than traction allows.  That means that speeding up, slowing down, turning or changing lanes can all be very dangerous.  Drive smoothly.  Don’t push it.  Try not to accelerate or brake while also turning.

One other little tip for people with rear wheel drive cars or trucks…  Put some weight in the back.  Bags of sand are great for this.  They provide a little weight which helps with traction, and if you get stuck on ice, the sand can put on the ice for traction.

Above all, be safe out there.  Atlanta and Gwinnett  County doesn’t see a lot of winter weather like this… and it usually passes quite fast.  Enjoy the beauty.

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Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report… November, 2010

Monday, 10 January 2011 08:55
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...
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Here are the final numbers for Gwinnett County Home sales for November, 2010.

At the end of November, 2010, there were 6,017 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As usual, we have a drop off in listings during the Holiday Season.  November listings were down from October.  December also showed a decrease.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 488 sales in November.  This was down from 716 sales for November, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 11.2 months of inventory, which has been steadily increasing since June (this isn’t an increase that is good).  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For November, it represented 3,943 homes listed.  There were 231 sales during that period.  So, active listings went up (bad) and sales were WAY down (very bad).  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 11 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more “market normal” June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for October were down from 496 in November, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, there were 1,537 listings county-wide.  The Absorption Rate, currently at about 15.5 months of inventory, has been rising since August.  And while sales are down, listings are down, too.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 69 for 2010 v 171 for 2009.  In effect, while there are less than half of the listings of the next lower market segment, there are barely more than a third of the sales.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there were 320 listings in Gwinnett County and 8 sales for November, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate had been basically dropping since March, 2010, but jumped up significantly based on weak sales in both October and November.  Currently it indicates about 45.7 months of inventory.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are abysmal v last year.  For November, 2009, there were 34 sales.

In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates 72 months of inventory.  That rate has been rising since July (it was 10 months, then).  But, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For November, there were 72 listings in this price range.  There was 1 sale… down from 9 in November, 2009.

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 49 active listings and 2 sales for November, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 82 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  But, there is an upward trend in the absorption rate… which isn’t good.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 96 listings and 1 sale for November, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 36 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year (when there were 3 sales…).  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and “one-offs”.

I’m looking forward to seeing the sales data for December soon.  It will take quite a while before we get out of comparing to numbers that were skewed by government subsidies and stimulus.

You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for November wasn’t very solid until the beginning of January.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute…

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Photo Friday… Hiking in the Sky

Friday, 07 January 2011 08:27
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Skyhike at Stone Mountain Park

Testing his fear of heights...

This is the new thing.  Each Friday, I will feature a photo.  Many will be local.  Some may be real estate related.  Others will be definately not local, and might not be related to real estate.  Cars, people, vacation, homes, garages, tools… fun times.  Just about anything might make the cut.

Since Flashback Friday and Wayback Wednesday have been highlighting posts from 1 and 2 years ago, I have covered posts for the last several years.  Wayback Wednesday will continue, and will feature posts from either one or two years ago that week.

Sky Hike at Stone Mountain Park

Ropes courses are nothing new.  And this one is pretty cool.  There are three levels.  The lowest level is around 12′-15′ off the ground.  Each of the next two levels is about 12′ higher.  It might not seem that way when you are standing on the ground, but it is pretty high by the time you get up to the third level.

Sky Hike at Stone Mountain Park
Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

And those seemingly simple obstacles are much more difficult when you are standing precariously on a rope 30′ in the air.

While we were getting our Annual Passes, we could see the Sky Hike out of the window of the Pass photo booth.  I have to admit that I was laughing pretty hard at some of the people that were up on the course.  A few minutes later, I am sure that there were folks in the same place laughing at me.

Sky Hike is included in the Mountain Membership, or the One Day Adventure Pass.  There is also an option for getting JUST the Sky Hike.  I recommend getting a Mountain Membership if you live in the area.  I also recommend getting an Annual Parking Pass ($20) for at least one of your family vehicles, as there are numerous free events for the family at the park… and the $35/year is WAY better than paying $10 to park there for the day… it’s just $20 for the annual parking pass if you are a Mountain Member, too.

And while you are there, you might as well ride a Duck…

If you follow me on Foursquare, you’ll know when I am at the park for a walk around the mountain (nice 5 mile hike).

Here is the website for Stone Mountain Park.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, November 2010

Monday, 03 January 2011 08:31
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
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Market stats for Norcross, November, 2010 indicate that there were 386 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10.3 month supply of properties. October and September sales were down v 2009 (42 v 57 and 43 v 55), but August was way up (52 v 43).  November was a thrashing… 27 v 47 in 2009.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 215 listings, with about 7.5 month supply.  Sales are down significantly from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (25 v 34).  But the segment is still looking pretty strong, despite the weakness in July and September and relative weakness of sales in October and November.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 127 listings for sale, and about 20 months of supply.  Sales have been down and slowing for the last few months.  But October was down (4 v 13 last year).  With the increase in inventory.  November only had 1 sales, v 11 last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 39 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 19.5 months. Much of the perception of strong Absorption Rates is from shrinking inventories.  Actual sales have been mostly decelerating.  I expect to see the numbers move the other way in the next few months.

Georgia state route marker. Signs use FHWA typ...
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In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate (6 month average) is at 4 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales this year, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there are only 2 listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 2 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There have been two sales in the last year (Apr 10 and Oct 10).

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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