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Tag Archives: investment

Wayback Wednesday… Fear/Greed and “the Deal”

Figure 20 from Charles Darwin's The Expression...
Image via Wikipedia

Two years ago, we were in the midst of the financial system meltdown.  real estate was looking bleak… and so was everything else.  Unemployment hadn’t really reared its ugly head.  It was swirling up, but still seemed manageable.

So, I thought that a blog about market psychology was in order…  And this isn’t just real estate.  The same holds true for any kind of market.

Fear and Greed

Those are the emotions that drive ALL markets.  Stop into the old post and take a look at the background.

In a nutshell, when fear overruns greed, markets expand.  When greed overtakes fear, markets contract.  Many are still fearing.  The market hasn’t recovered.  As the bubble was inflating, there was little fear… greed had full run of the emotional mind.

The markets will recover, barring some massive calamity like the currency market collapsing.  People just have to start being more greedy than fearful.

We need to keep a little of that fear in the back of our mind, too.  It will keep away the next bubble a little longer.

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Zestimate Accuracy in the Atlanta GA Area…

Representation of high accuracy and low precision.
Image via Wikipedia

Ever since they were first introduced, Zillow’s ‘Zestimates’ have created a stir.  Some herald them, while other decry them.  But, Zillow’s Zestimates are a great tool for homeowners and those looking at buying, whether they are familiar with the area or not.

But the Zestimates DO have a limit.  They aren’t terribly accurate.  On the good side, though, Zillow is nice enough to tell us how accurate they are for some areas.  But, even the accuracy may need to be interpreted.

Let’s see if we can shed some light on Zestimate accuracy for the Atlanta, GA, area. For the sake of this example let’s assume that the Zestimate is exactly $200,000.  This is a nice, round number that makes calculations easier.

  • Median error for the Atlanta area is 15.3%.  That means that half of the homes have an error of less than 15.3%, while half have an error higher than 15.3%.  In other words, half of the homes that would be valued at $200,000 are worth between $169,400 and $230,600.  the other half are worth more than $230,600 or less than $164,900 (should be around 25% too high, 25% too low).
  • About 58% are actually worth between $160,000 and $240,000.
  • About 36% are worth between $180,000 and $220,000.
  • Only 19% are worth between $190,000 and $210,000.

The bottom line is that Zestimates, in the Atlanta area, are pretty rough.  There is only a 1 in 5 chance of the home’s value being within 5% of the Zestimate.  In other words, it is not a precision tool…

In my experience, most sellers are sure that the Zestimate is too low, and most buyers are convinced it is too high.  It is just as likely to be one as the other…

But Zestimates ARE still useful…

Like any tool, they need to be used the right way.  My Zillow contacts (and I have met and enjoyed talking with several of the fine folks at Zillow) have stated that the distribution of Zestimate error is just as likely to be high as low.  Look at the target in the graphic.  None of the shots hit the center of the target… but the AVERAGE of them is quite close.  And the same holds true of Zestimates.

Taken as a whole, when looking at larger areas (the larger, the better), they provide a very accurate look at the broader market.  But, as we narrow down to more specific areas, they get cloudier and cloudier.

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Wayback Wednesday… Is NOW the Time to Buy?

National Association of Realtors streetscape
Image by dannyfowler via Flickr

Listening to the NAR (National Association of Realtors®, it is ALWAYS the right time to buy.  If the market is going up, they pound the “buy the rising market” drum.  If the market is going down, they beat on the “buy into value” drum.  Frankly, I’m tired of it, and they have killed a massive amount of credibility by constantly trying to spin reality for “our” perceived benefit.

A couple of years ago this week, I was on Social Media Edge, on Blog Talk Radio, talking with Ken Cook about this very thing.  I’ve had my strong opinions about this for quite a while.  And, while for some folks, it is a GREAT time to buy, for others it isn’t.  I haven’t ever been shy about saying it, even when I have taken flak from my peers for not “cheerleading the market”.

On Social Media Edge, we talked for about 20 minutes about this.  Here is a link to the original post, and it has links to the Blog Talk Radio site, as well as a podcast of the broadcast.  Stop in, check it out.

If you are wondering if NOW is the time for you to buy, give Lane a call.  678-200-5895.

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Wayback Wednesday… Political Incorrectness

Plot of U.S. home prices, population, building...
Image via Wikipedia

There is a video clip that has been EVERYWHERE on the internet.  It has been re-subtitled more times than I can count.  Almost any subject that is causing anyone frustration, from the collapse of the housing bubble to the Democrat meltdown to the way some people drive in traffic…  They’ve all had a version of this video.

And while it isn’t politically correct, it is funny.  And I don’t care about being politically correct.  I prefer funny.  And Bill Mahr is politically correct… and NOT generally funny.

Pop back a couple of years and see what the fuss was about…

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So, You Have An Accepted Offer… All Is Good, Right?

Clear sailing at sunset
Image by Alan Miles NYC via Flickr

Not so fast there, Mr and Mrs Homeseller…

A lot of sellers think that the sailing is going to be smooth after they go “Under Contract”.  After all, the hard part is getting an offer, right?

Maybe…  Maybe not…

Actually, I have dealt with a rash of buyers falling out of contract lately.  Inspections haven’t been good to a couple of sellers.  The specific issues aren’t as important as the concept here.  The home isn’t sold until you clear the closing table.

Homes fall out of contract for a variety of reasons.

  • Inspection issues
  • Buyer financial problems
  • Buyer’s remorse
  • Appraisal comes in too low
  • Seller can’t produce title
  • Lender changes standards

And of course there are always strange and unique ways for sales to fail.

What can a seller do?

One of the things I always recommend is for a seller to get an inspection… just like the buyer would.  This gives the seller the opportunity to look at the property through the eyes of a buyer.  And then act on the results.  The BEST time to take care of inspection issues is BEFORE the buyer has them.

While, as a seller, you usually don’t have the ability to derail financial problems on the buyer side, or buyer’s remorse… and certainly not things like changes in lending standards… and even title issues (the closing attorney will find them), YOU CAN often figure out if there will be appraisal issues.

Appraisers are VERY conservative in the current environment.  While I wouldn’t tell every seller to run out and drop another $300 on an appraisal, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to get your agent to check with one of their lenders to see what the AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) say.  Check Zillow, too.  It isn’t the last word, but it gets you in the realm.  Most homes are fairly easy to value.  There are similar comparables in the same neighborhood, so an appraiser can grab those, make a few adjustments and come out with a value.

But, in addition to your real estate agent’s CMA (Comparable Market Analysis), getting a real appraisal may be a good idea for an unusual home.  Remember, though, appraisers issue an opinion, so while one might assign an agreeable value, another may not.

The best tactics are to go into the process aware of the pitfalls, and do what you can to minimize the poor outcomes.  Keep your property clean and neat and in good repair.  And be flexible with the buyer…  Sometimes the next offer is just as good as the first one, but we often see the best offer is the first one to hit the table.

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