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Tag Archives: lawrenceville

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2012

Friday, 27 July 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, June, 2012, indicate that there were 1001 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 3.8 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for June were at 276, so 272 sales was a slight decrease, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 267.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This month we are rocking, in fact, some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 824 listings, with about a 3.4 month supply of homes.  Sales were well down from June, 2011 (248 v 254), although sales may very well be down because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were 1309 listings v the 824 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 3.43 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down, though, from 235 in May.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 148 listings for sale, and about 6.2 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 23 sales for June, 2012 were only slightly up from the 21 from last year.  They were well below from the 31 sales last month.  But, we are close to Balanced Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market (big jump from the 16 last month).  The absorption rate is around 33 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There was 1 sale for June, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There was 1 sale in June, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 six months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in June. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012 and 1 last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 2 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Buying More Affordable Than Renting in Atlanta?

Wednesday, 18 July 2012 08:00
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Trulia maintains a database of costs for rentals as well as listings for buying.  This allows them to compare the costs of both in various markets around the country…  And Atlanta is currently listed as one of the markets where Buying is Cheaper than Renting!

In addition to the costs, they look at Employment Growth, Vacancy Rates and Price Drops.  Because of the reasonably low vacancy rates, flat employment growth and big price drops, Atlanta scored well into the Buy side…

Check it out on Trulia’s blog.

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How Does the Market Look?

Monday, 09 July 2012 08:00
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The regular market reports will resume on Friday, but for today I just wanted to expound on the general market a little.

Things have really changed in the last few months.  Just 4 or 5 months ago, I was constantly looking for “follow through” on strong numbers for almost every market segment.  There would be a good month or two, but then there would be a lousy one to cast doubt into the recovery process.

There were programs designed to “bring back the housing segment”, and while some of them did manage to move the market for a short time, for the most part, they only seemed to steal from future sales.  Sales that would have happened regardless were moved up in order to qualify for government subsidies or more favorable tax treatment.  But over the long run, they didn’t create many sales that wouldn’t have happened over the follow couple of months.

After all of that worked through the system, and consumers were more certain that there wouldn’t be future inducements, sales started picking up again… but the real boost to the sales numbers has been inventory reductions.  And while there are still rumors of a “tidal wave of foreclosed properties”, those same rumors have been around for 3+ years, always with the tidal wave 4-6 months away.  There could indeed be a wave of foreclosed properties poised to hit the market, I wouldn’t bank on it.  And the market does seem ready to absorb some more inventory, especially on the entry level end of the spectrum.

The bottom line is that the real estate market is getting back to normal.  In fact, under $200k in most of Gwinnett, it is well into Seller’s Market territory.  From $200k-$400k, it is mixed.  Above that, it is still pretty much a Buyer’s Market, but not to the extent it has been for the last few years.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the market when the general economic recovery starts in earnest.  I am still of the opinion that the best stimulus for the housing market is a recovery in the jobs market.  While the unemployment rate has gotten better, the labor force participation percentage rate hasn’t budged much.  The unemployment rate discounts workers that give up or time out on unemployment, while the labor force participation rate includes everyone that could be in the labor force.

I’m firmly of the belief that many buyers are reluctant to make a 30 year plan (buy a house and get a mortgage) when they are worried about the security of their job over the next year.

Stay tuned to see how it all shakes out…

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, May 2012

Friday, 29 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, May, 2012, indicate that there were 1046 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 3.9 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for May were at 262, so 267 sales was a solid increase, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 256.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This month we are rocking, in fact, some are arguing that constrained inventories are holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 870 listings, with about a 3.6 month supply of homes.  Sales were well down from May, 2011 (235 v 246), although sales may very well be down because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were 1340 listings v the 870 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 3.57 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down, though, from 237 in April.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 148 listings for sale, and about 7.1 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 31 sales for May, 2012 were WAY up from the 16 from last year.  They were also well up from the 18 sales last month.  But, we are still slightly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 23 homes on the market (big jump from the 16 last month).  The absorption rate is around 34.5 months (also a big jump from the 12 last month).  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 0 sales for May, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There were 0 sales in May, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 five months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 3 listings, with about 9.0 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was 1 sale in May. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 2 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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A Perfect Storm for “Move-Up Buyers”?

Wednesday, 30 May 2012 08:00
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Interest rates are at historic lows… leading to incredible affordability.

Picture of the

Picture of the "Gingerbread House" in Essex, Connecticut, USA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Entry level inventories are at historic lows… leading to some price strength at base price levels.

Still some weakness at some “move-up” price levels… leading to great deals on homes at those price levels.

For a while now, many of us in the real estate world have been saying two things.  First, until jobs come back and people feel secure, real estate would struggle.  Second, the market wouldn’t come back until “move-up” buyers were in a position to make a move.

I don’t know that the majority of consumers are “comfortable” with their job situation, but when they are, the deals will start to dry up.  Those that get off the fence early will have the best choice of bargains… and inventories are actually dropping.

Move-up buyers had been somewhat locked into their homes with crappy resale values.  They couldn’t afford to move out and be in a position to put anything down on another house.  But now that there is a bit of stability in in the entry level, more of those buyers ARE able to sell and move up the market.

 

If you want to see if you are in a position to trade up, give me a call.  Lane Bailey 678-200-5895.

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