Tag Archives: market report

It’s Even In the BAD School Districts Now…

Wednesday, 17 April 2013 08:01

Written by Lane Bailey

4 Comments

And no, I am NOT going to volunteer which ones those are…

Gwinnett County, Georgia (Photo credit: Dougtone)

Today during our weekly brokerage meeting, my broker was talking about builder activity. South Forsyth County has been going nuts for a few months now. And since inventory has been so low and demand so high, he mentioned that it’s even spilling over into bad school clusters…

Frankly, I got a kick out of that.

But, it is also VERY true. We’ve been seeing inventories drop like a rock in a lot of pockets. Interest rates are trolling along at unbelievably low levels and prices are still suppressed by short sale and foreclosure activity. Gwinnett is moving in a strong direction… Forsyth has been there for a while and we have watched as the builders moved further up-market… now it seems like there is a LOT of activity in the $500k range. A year ago, it would have been suicidal for a builder to put up anything at that price… now they are pre-selling half of their lots before getting a model built.

In fact, one community opened in the last few days and had people CAMPING out over night to be first in line to reserve houses… Real estate is such a deal right now that it is getting BLACK FRIDAY attention.

Rural public high school, Walkertown, Forsyth County, NC (Photo credit: Government & Heritage Library, State Library of NC)

I need to be quick to point out that Gwinnett isn’t quite as far along as Forsyth in that regard… GREAT if you are a buyer, and not too bad if you are a seller. Forsyth had a little advantage in that there weren’t as many foreclosures as in Gwinnett. Gwinnett is also a much larger market, so it takes more to turn it. But we are seeing dramatic decreases in “wholesale” activity (foreclosures) as well as distressed properties like short sales. At the same time, “retail” sales are surging and inventories are dropping.

So, while prices are still struggling a little, they are much stronger than the last few years, and often, well prices homes are pulling in multiple offers… even over listed price.

If you want to have a conversation about YOUR Gwinnett County home, give me a call.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2013

Monday, 15 April 2013 11:51

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, February, 2013, indicate that there were 183 properties on the market, down 24 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.9 month supply of properties and 47 properties that closed (sold) in JFebruary. It was a slight increase from last year’s sales (43) and from January (45 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.87 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market. And it is one of a very few that got better in February.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 119 listings, with about an 3.2 month supply with 39 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were up a little from last month (36), and from last year (also 36). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 3.16 months of inventory, with a few months of stats getting better, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 54 listings for sale, and about 6.0 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 7 sales compared to 9 last month and 7 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong… We are in Balanced Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 10.5 months. There was 1 sale in February. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 3 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2013

Friday, 12 April 2013 09:38

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

Market stats for Norcross GA, February, 2013 indicate that there were 143 properties on the market, up 5 from last month. Overall, there is about a 4.1 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. February saw 32 sales, on par compared to the 36 for January, but down compared to the 48 for February last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 73 listings, with about 3.1 month supply. Sales are down from last month and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (20 v 28 in Jan13 & 42 Feb12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 3 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 43 listings for sale, and about 4.6 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 9 sales were up from last year’s 4 sales, and a little above last month’s 8 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 23 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 11.5 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. February’s 3 sales were up from the 0 last month and from last year’s 1 sale. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and four months ago it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 18.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. The were 0 sales for Feb13, 0 for Jan13 and 1 for Feb12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in February. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Duluth, GA, Market Report, February 2013

Monday, 08 April 2013 11:17

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, February, 2013 indicated that there were 287 properties on the market, up 15 from last month. Overall, there was about a 6.0 month supply of properties. Sales in February were 40, down from 65 a year earlier. Sales were also down compared to the prior month (45). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. It is right in the Balanced Market zone.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 86 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last February, was 5.6. Sales were WAY down this year v last year (20 v 45), but flat compared to last month (20). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 82 listings for sale, and about 5.1 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to February, 2012 (15 v 8) but down compared to last month (16). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a slight Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 34 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 6.8 months. February brought in 2 sales. There were 8 last year and 4 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Usually we see the A/R soften as we move up in price, but that isn’t happening here. We are now slightly to the Buyer’s Market side.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 30 listings, with about 15 months of supply. Sales were 1 for February… 1 for last year. And month to month sales were down (1 v 3). I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it has been looking better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level. But not the last few months…

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 16 homes listed and approximately 24 months of inventory on the market. The 1 sale for February was not better than the 2 last year or the 1 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 2 sales for the last 3 months was the same as the same 3 months from last year (2 sale). And a year ago the A/R was 36 months.

Above $1m, there were 39 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 29 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 4 sales in the Dev-Feb period this year, and 2 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but barely had a start with it this month with 1 sale. There was 1 sale last year and there was 1 for January.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? (lanebailey.com)

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2013

Friday, 05 April 2013 09:24

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, February, 2013, indicate that there were 633 properties on the market, down 50 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.5 month supply of properties. In 2012, sales for February were at 196, so 170 sales was a big decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 166. Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January-February through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we could be looking even better. In almost every market I follow in Gwinnett, there was an increase in listings… except here.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 497 listings, with about a 3.0 month supply of homes. Sales were down from February, 2012 (154 v 181), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were almost 1000 listings v under 500 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 2.99 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were flat from 154 last month. Again, there was a big drop in listed properties for this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 118 listings for sale, and about 7.4 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 16 sales for February, 2013 edged the 13 from last year, but killed the very weak 11 sales last month. But, we had been close but slipped back into Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 12 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 12 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There was 1 sale for January but 0 sales for February, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months June11, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 34 10 months ago and 6.6 last month). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 12 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in February. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. There was 4 sale in 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 2 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July 12. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.