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Tag Archives: market report

Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket?

Thursday, 17 February 2011 08:45
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A Penske Porsche RS Spyder leading a Dyson Por...

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Let’s just assume for a minute that you are sitting there in your office or at home and you have $1,000,000 just dying to be invested in a new (to you) home.  And then let’s assume for a few minutes that you’d love to do that here in Gwinnett County, GA.  What can you get for a million bucks here in Gwinnett?

There are a few homes listed for around $1,000,000 in Gwinnett County, GA.  I limited it to homes that were priced within $1,000 of the magic number.  The six houses all came in between $999,000 and $999,900.

Three of the homes are located in Chateau Elan, in Braselton, GA.  You can’t really get much further north in the county, but it is a truly magnificent area.  Chateau Elan is built around the winery of the same name started by Donald Panoz.  That would be the same Donald Panoz that owns Road Atlanta, just a little north of the winery, and the American Le Mans Series in sports car racing.  There is also an Inn, event facility and several golf courses.

main exterior

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The other three homes are a little more spread out around the county, but all are near the I-85 corridor.  They are in Buford, Duluth and Suwanee.  This particular Buford home isn’t in a subdivision, but could have easily been a home on Lake Lanier.  The homes in Buford that are on the lake are on what is called “South Lake”, which is the biggest area of the lake.  There are some exceptional homes in this area.  Duluth is home to the Sugarloaf Country Club, where many of Atlanta’s sports stars and celebrities live.  The home that is currently in that narrow price range is in another neighborhood called Sweet Bottom Plantation.  Sweet Bottom Plantation is nestled on the banks of the Chattahoochee River, with many homes having styling reminiscent of New Orleans, LA, or Charleston, SC.  Our Suwanee home is located in Belmore Estates.  Suwanee is also home to The River Club and Bear’s Best Estates.  It also bleeds over into Forsyth County and a little bit in Fulton County.

Here in Gwinnett County, GA, homes priced at $1,000,000 are pretty cool. That buys a LOT of house; 6,000 to 9,000 square feet.  They have terrace level rooms, finished to very high standards.  Three car garages are a minimum, with 4+ being more common.  Most of the homes have 5 or 6 bedrooms, but every once in a while, a 4 bedroom home will sneak in.  Most of the homes have swimming pools on the property, as well.  Only the home not in a subdivision had a significant amount of land, 14 acres.  The others were all generally under one acre.  Hardwood floors, central vacs, stone and brick, updated kitchens and high end cabinetry and appliances are pretty standard.

Right now, in Gwinnett County, the luxury market is pretty much buyer driven, too.  We do see some foreclosures and short sales, but a larger percentage of buyers at this level paid cash than at lower price points.  That doesn’t mean that there aren’t deals, though. Homes that are selling in this price range are often homes that would have sold for upwards of $1.5M just a few years ago.

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Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

Thursday, 10 February 2011 08:20
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old photo of peachtree street, atlanta, GA

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I love watching the news… but when they talk about the real estate market, I cringe.  I like to hear the national numbers, but I also know that they are just a framework for a smaller discussion.  Yep… a smaller discussion.

It matters what the overall market is doing, but it’s not nearly as important as what is happening in your neighborhood.  It matters what is happening in Georgia, and the Atlanta Metro market, but not nearly as much as what is happening in your specific city.  Real estate prices and demand react to specific local issues much more than to national trends.  In fact, the national trend is just a compilation of local and hyper-local trends.  What the national market does is create a headwind or a tailwind.  That’s about it.

Here locally, we look at things like…

  • changing employment statistics
  • companies relocating into or out of the area
  • school performance and trends
  • tax burdens
  • quality of local governmental services
  • proximity to recreation and entertainment
  • ease of movement (commuting, shopping, etc)

As we see these things change, we see the market move in one direction or another.  A prime example at the moment is the City of Atlanta schools issue.  It is possible that the Atlanta City Schools could lose their accreditation.  If that were to happen, it would drive down the price of most of the homes served by those schools.  The price would be driven down because there would be a lack of demand on the part of buyers, combined with an increase in supply as sellers seek to move to districts without the same problems.

Gwinnett County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Georgia, below the national average.  But there is also a tremendous overhead of foreclosure action.  We also have one of the highest performance school systems in the region… and reasonably low tax rates.

The market in Miami or Las Vegas doesn’t have an effect on what is happening in Georiga, much less what is going on with real estate in Gwinnett County.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Thursday, 27 January 2011 08:33
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Chattahoochee River in Norcross, Georgia
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Market stats for Norcross GA, November, 2010 indicate that there were 365 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10.2 month supply of properties. November was a thrashing… 30 v 47 in 2009.  December was better, but still only 35 sales for Dec 2010 compared to 41 the year prior.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 219 listings, with about 7.4 month supply.  Sales are down slightly from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (25 v 28).  But the segment is still looking pretty strong, despite the weakness in July and September and relative weakness of sales in October, November and even December.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 111 listings for sale, and about 27.8 months of supply.  Sales have been down and slowing for the last few months.  November was a really bad month (1 v 11)… but December was still down, 7 v 10 sales.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 18.6 months. Much of the perception of strong Absorption Rates is from shrinking inventories.  Actual sales have been mostly decelerating.  I expect to see the numbers move the other way in the next few months.  But, for the record, Sales for December were at 3 for both 2009 and 2010.

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
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In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate (6 month average) is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales this year, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there are only 2 listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were no homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 2 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There have been two sales in the last year (Apr 10 and Oct 10).

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Tuesday, 25 January 2011 08:51
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Buford Dam on the Chattahoochee River in north...
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Market stats for Buford, GA, November, 2010 indicate that there were 566 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 10.2 month supply of properties.  December was slightly above last year (62 v 52 for 2009).  But it was also a pretty substantial bump from November (44 sales).  There were 83 sales in June and an Absorption Rate under 8.5 months.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 325 listings, with a 9.1 month supply.  Again, this is the largest price segment in this area, so being up by 10 sales over last year (41 v 31) strengthens the whole market area.  It is also a pretty nice increase over November (29 sales).

Between $200k and $400k, there were 193 listings for sale, and about  11.1 months of supply.  While there was a slight increase in sales compared to November (16 v 13), it was also a decrease from last year (19).  Strangely, this segment has been improving for the last four months.  Much of that is due to decreased inventory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 27 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 20.1 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 4 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  There were 2 sales in November, 2010… and 3 this year.  Last month’s 57 months of inventory looks like an anomaly.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings.  Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 3 sales in this segment this year… the last was this past November.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 3 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until this month (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than 50% compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 11 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009… still…

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2010

Saturday, 22 January 2011 08:07
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United States Navy troop transport USS Suwanee...
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2010 indicate that there are 548 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.8 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 165 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 9.9 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed…  This is one of the rare segments that actually bumped in November, rather than December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 249 listings for sale, and 9 months of supply.  Sales for December 2010 were 25 compared with 22 for the same period in 2009.  Still weak, but with the decrease in listings, leading to an improvement in the Absorption Rate.  For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year.  November continued the (poor) trend with 27 sales v 41 last year.

This is a picture of the front entrance of Lam...
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From $400k to $600k, there are 71 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 19.4 months.  There were 4 sales this year… dwarfed by the 7 last year.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 11 sales this year and 24 for the same period last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 26 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent.  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 3…  For the sale time last year, the sales were 7.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 3+ years of inventory on the market.  There has only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April, May and December).  Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 18 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Oct-Dec this year and 2 last year).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 37 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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