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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010

Monday, 20 December 2010 08:18
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, November, 2010 indicate that there are 582 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.9 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 156 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 8.5 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed… October sales were down from 27 last year to 22 this year.  For November, there were 15 sales this year and 21 last year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 285 listings for sale, and 9.8 months of supply.  Sales for September 2010 were 30 compared with 39 for the same period in 2009.  Still weak, but much better than last month.  For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year.  November continued the (poor) trend with 26 sales v 41 last year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 75 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 18.7 months.  There were 4 sales this year… dwarfed by the 10 last year.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 12 sales this year and 26 for the same period last year.

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In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 28 listings, with about a 42 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent.  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 2…  For the sale time last year, the sales were 9.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 4+ years of inventory on the market.  There has only been 3 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April and May).  Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 25 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 18.8 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Sept-Nov both this year and last).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 45 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2010

Saturday, 18 December 2010 08:50
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, October, 2010 indicated that there were 595 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 11.7 month supply of properties.  Months of Inventory has been increasing for the last couple of months.  Sales in November were 54, compared to 65 a year earlier.  Don’t forget, though, there was a tax credit slated to expire at the end of November last year that was spurring sales.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 243 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 10 month supply.  The Absorption Rate had gotten down into the high 4 month realm… and as recent as December, was in the low 5s.  In May, it was at 7.9 months and has been rising since, markedly in the last couple of months.  Sales for November were flat this year v last year (35).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 162 listings for sale, and about 12.8 months of supply.  Sales decreased from 24 in 2009 to 15 in 2010.  September sales took a big hit, but October and November were that strong, either.

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From $400k to $600k, there were 65 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 8.1 months.  While sales haven’t been super strong, they haven’t been bad for this price segment, until October.  November tied last year, with 8 sales in the segment.  So, despite the slight increase in listings, the Absorption Rate actually dropped a little.  I keep looking back at the 5.65 month absorption rate in December… but this is still one of the better performing segments in Gwinnett County.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 44 listings, with about 14.7 months of supply.  Sales were 0 for September, 2010 v 4 last year and 6 in October 2010 v just 1 last year.  November had 3 sales in 2010 v 5 in 2009.  For the three months of Sept – Nov 2010 were 9 v 10 last year.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 28 homes listed and approximately 28 months of inventory on the market.  Continuously falling inventories and increased sales are fueling the increasingly favorable Absorption Rate (it was 67.5 months in February).  However, for the last couple of months the absorption rate has been on the rise again.  There were 3 sales in the last three months, this year.  Last year, there were 8 sales in the same period.

Above $1m, there were 53 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 31.8 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 5 sales in the Sept – Nov period this year, and only 2 sales for the same time last year… but inventories have been dropping.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2010

Thursday, 16 December 2010 08:03
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, November, 2010, indicate that there are 1627 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.5 month supply of properties, with sales weakening since June. In 2009, sales for November had dropped drastically between October and November (223 to 166).  For 2010, November sales came in at 148.

For Lawrenceville Homes  Under $200k, there are 1338 listings, with about a 9.5 month supply of homes. Sales accelerated through June, but then fell off as the tax credit was slated to end.  While inventories are down from just a couple of years ago, for the recent past, they are still high.  Sales for this year v last year are at 134 v 183.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 246 listings for sale, and about 17.6 months of supply.  Sales have slowed dramatically, if unevenly, since June.  And sales were down compared to last year (14 v 23).  While listings are also down, period sales are down more.

From $400k to $600k, there are 32 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 8 years.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were no sales since June, and only three in May and June (combined).  Those were the only sales in the segment this year.

Downtown Lawrenceville (as of June 2006)
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In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 10 listings, with about 60 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were only two sales since November, 2009 (One each, April and July).  The drop off in the number of listings is making the Absorption Rate look better.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 5 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There hasonly been one sale in this range in the last 2 years, according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Optimist of Pessimist?

Wednesday, 15 December 2010 08:16
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Two years ago I wrote this post…  And it is almost embarrassing…  I was SO wrong.  So wrong.

Or maybe I was right, but just a couple of years too early (nope, I think that saying I was wrong is closer to the truth).

In effect, my opinion was the real estate was poised for a recovery.  The prices were cheap, and mortgage rates were almost impossibly low.

Prices are lower… and so are interest rates.  There are still deals out there (but at least there is a fight for some of them).  But the fact remains that I misread the market, then.  I tend to be a little more cynical about it now…

But, all of the same forces that were lined up pointing to a recovery, like the media talking it down, investors like Warren Buffet looking at real estate, etc., are still there.

What I hadn’t banked on was unemployment and how it would affect the real estate market.  Unemployment is up about 30% from where it was two years ago.  Despite the bailouts, government takeovers and TARP, people aren’t working.  Until that happens, we won’t see a real estate recovery…  But when it happens, it will happen in a big way.  I still believe that.  It won’t wind back up as fast as things unwound, but the best deals will vaporize from the market.

As mentioned, I have had buyers that have had to compete for properties at the entry level.  It is a glimmer of hope…

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010

Tuesday, 14 December 2010 08:46
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Market stats for Lilburn, November, 2010, indicates that there are 425 properties on the market (as of November 30th). Overall, there is about a 11.8 month supply of properties.  Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County.  Absorption Rates had been improving since March, until September.  In fact, in March there were 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 264 listings, with about an 8.6 month supply.  This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March, until October.  Sales were on par with November 2009 (28 v 24).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 134 listings for sale, and about 28.7 months of supply. This segment has also been getting stronger each month since March, until September.  There were only 2 sales in September 2010, compared to 11 last year and 6 in October v 18 in 2009.  November held 6 sales in 2010 v 9 in 2009.  The expected end of the tax credit last year started pushing sales down in Nov. 2009.

Snow in Lilburn

Snow in Lilburn

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 33 months. There  were no sales in this segment in May, June, July or October this year.  There were only 4 sales in August and September(combined). November had 1 sale (2 last year). Last summer was much stronger overall.  With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There has been one sale in the last four months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August).  One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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