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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Thursday, 07 February 2013 11:00
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2012 indicates that there were 122 homes on the market.  A decline of 6 from last month.  Overall, there is about an 4.1 month supply (4.6 last month).  There were 36 sales, compared to 31 last month and 18 last October.  Of course, then there were 169 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 81 listings, with about 3.6 months supply.  There were 28 sales this October, well above last year for the same time (18).  There were 24 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  This time of year we often see a slight decrease in listings… but we are already very low.  In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 36 listings for sale, and about 5.7 months of supply.  Last October there was an 33 month supply.  there were 0 sales, this year there were 7.  Last month had 7 sales.  That makes four of the last five months look reasonably strong.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 2 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 4.5 months, but with 1 sale this month (and May and August single sales being the only others since last November), it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Wednesday, 06 February 2013 13:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2012 indicate that there were 350 properties on the market (down from 406 last month). Overall, there was about a 3.9 month supply of properties (virtually unchanged from last month). September had 82 sales. Compared to October, 2011 (83), this year was flat, but inventory was down compared to 2011 (539). There were 78 sales last month, so this month was up a bit, but nothing like August.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 94 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 2.8 month supply (compared to 5.2 months supply last year). This October’s sales were 33 (42 last year, 32 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Sales may have been limited by constricted inventory.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 157 listings for sale (246 last year, 168 last month), and 3.5 months of supply. Sales in October, 2012 were 36 (38 in September), compared with 31 for the same period in 2011. Sales have been consistent and strong for the last few months, but fell off somewhat last month. I’d like to see it stay around 40 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 6.4 months (6.7 in September). There were 8 sales in October (6 last month)… flat from 8 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 23 sales this year and 28 for the same period last year. This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but slacked a little the last two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 24 listings, with about a 14.4 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (1 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 5… For the same time last year, the sales were 7. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now…

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 7 homes listed and 7.0 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale each in March, July, August, September and 1 sale in October.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 19 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 14.3 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for April, last previously recorded). In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 28 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There were 2 sales in August and 2 sales in October.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Yep… A Seller’s Market. But What Does That Mean NOW?

Tuesday, 05 February 2013 09:00
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Supply and Demand

Supply and Demand (Photo credit: ATENCION:)

Normally, a Seller’s Market means that conditions are generally better for sellers than for buyers.  There is, in effect, more demand than there is supply.  And, usually, that means that sellers are more in control of pricing and terms for their homes.  Prices generally rise and there are fewer demands made upon sellers in regards to inspections, and other concessions.

 

But things aren’t always “normal”.  Now is a great example of that.

Right now, the majority of Gwinnett is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  Below about half a million dollars, Absorption Rates remain under the magical 6 months… in some cases, even below 3 months.  Above half a million, things aren’t quite as rosy, but they are WAY stronger than they have been for years.

But all is not beer and pizza in Seller Land.  In fact, it may be FAR from fun to be a seller in today’s market, no matter what the numbers look like.  The reality is that bank-owned properties are skewing the numbers… or skewering, depending on how you want to look at it.  What has happened is that bank-owned inventory has come to dominate the market.  It may or may not be the majority, but there is enough of a presence that it pushes the pricing down for all of the homes that are actually selling.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing depends on whether you are a buyer or a seller.  As a buyer, it means that the homes you look are are either priced quite competitively (and don’t stay on the market very long) or they aren’t… and they stay on the market forever.

One of the ways that I can see this is by looking at the “Days on Market” (DoM) stats while preparing Market Reports.  They are jumping ALL over the place.  This isn’t a direct sign, but rather one that is more deduction.  In some segments I am seeing DoMs bounce from over 100 days to under 50 days and back over 100 in back to back to back months.  This means that homes that every once in a while a home that sells has been on the market a VERY long time… pushing up the average, then there are none of those “old-timers” the next month… then another one pops through.

What does it all mean?

Simply… as a buyer, if you see a home you like, and it is priced well, there will likely be competition for it.  Don’t expect that you can toss a low offer across the table and get a reply.  In fact, I have seen a LOT of multiple offer situations on well-priced properties.  As a seller, don’t expect that you can price your home at the level you thought it was worth a few years ago.  You are competing with bank-owned properties and their primary motivation is to not own the property any longer than they need to in order to almost break even… and their definition of break even may include insurance payments and government inducements to hurry up and sell it.

One may say that the worst aspects of both a seller’s market and a buyer’s market are present right now… fierce competition (for buyers) for the “right” properties and weak pricing for sellers).

If you really want to sell your property, let’s talk…

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2012

Monday, 04 February 2013 14:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, September, 2012, indicate that there were 252 properties on the market, down 20 from last month.  Overall, there was about an 3.7 month supply of properties and 58 properties that closed (sold) in September.  It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (44) but a decrease from August (64 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down very slightly.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 3.71 months of inventory, it is downright strong now.  Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 176 listings, with about an 3.3 month supply with 45 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased a bit from last month (55), and were also up from last year (35).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn.  At 3.3 months of inventory, with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 67 listings for sale, and about 5.2 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. But it would be hard to follow up July.  There were 12 sales compared to 7 last month and 9 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.  July month was quite strong. April was strong…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 5 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 3.75 months.  There was 1 sale in September.  Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.  To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12).  If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.  Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

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I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, September 2012

Friday, 01 February 2013 13:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, September, 2012 indicate that there were 172 properties on the market, down 24 from last month.  Overall, there is about a 3.2 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  September saw 53 sales, on par compared to the 55 for August, but well under the 48 for September last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 93 listings, with about 2.3 month supply.  Sales are up from last month and down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (43 v 36 in Sep11 & 41 Aug12).  For the last ten months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At well under a 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 61 listings for sale, and about 4.6 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months.  But, the 10 sales was flat with last year’s 10 sales, but was a little under last month’s 14 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  I’m still waiting for this segment to stop bouncing around so much.

From $400k to $600k, there were 15 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 22.5 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  September’s 0 sales were flat from the 0 last month and down from last year’s 2 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 3.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. February had 1 sale. The was 1 sale for July12, 0 for Aug12 and 0 for Sep11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and 0 sales in September. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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