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Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2012

Wednesday, 20 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, May, 2012, indicate that there were 306 properties on the market (as of May 31st).  Overall, there was about an 5.0 month supply of properties and 68 properties that closed (sold) in May.  It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (54) and an increase from April (65 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a good bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 4.99 months of inventory, it is downright strong now.  Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 212 listings, with about an 4.2 month supply with 59 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales increased a bit from last month (51), and were also up from last year (41).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  At 4.2 months of inventory, I’d say with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 82 listings for sale, and about 8.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  It is stalling a bit again.  There were 8 sales compared to 14 last month and 11 last year.  Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market, but this number isn’t terrible.  The decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…  It was strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 10.5 months.  There was 1 sale in May.  Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.  To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12).  If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, May 2012

Friday, 15 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, May, 2012 indicate that there were 455 properties on the market (up from 426 last month).  Overall, there was about a 5.0 month supply of properties (down from 5.4 last month).  May had 99 sales.  Compared to May, 2011 (88), this year was pretty hot.  Inventory was down compared to 2011 (640).  There were 75 sales last month.  Gwinnett had a pretty good month, and it was evident here.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 118 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.2 month supply (184 and 6.5, respectively last year).  This May’s sales were WAY up, at 42 (29 last year, 28 last month).  This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  And one of the strongest in the whole county.  The next level up is coming up fast.  There are a few other segments in the county getting close, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 220 listings for sale (310 last year, 200 last month), and 5.5 months of supply.  Sales in May, 2012 were 43 (35 in April), compared with 45 for the same period in 2011.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was at 6.0 months (7.1 in April).  There were 11 sales in May (10 in April)… up from 10 last May.  Looking at the three month average, there were 31 sales this year and 18 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 27 listings, with about a 13.5 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (0 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 6… For the same time last year, the sales were 5.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 8 homes listed and 24 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some more sales activity.  There was 1 sale in March this year.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 20 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 15 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for March, 2 for April and 0 for May).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 22 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties.  The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses.  It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Monday, 04 June 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, April, 2012 indicate that there were 257 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.2 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  April saw 50 sales, slightly over the 49 for April, 2011, and slightly below the 51 for March.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 136 listings, with about 3.6 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month and from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (37 v 44 in Apr11 & 36 Mar12).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At just over a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 91 listings for sale, and about 12.4 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months.  But, the 7 sales were pretty good compared to last year’s 3 sales, but got kicked by last month’s 11 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  We really need a strong May for this segment to look good.

From $400k to $600k, there were 25 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 8.3 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  April’s 5 sales were up from the 3 the month before and up from last year’s 2 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market.  Inventories tripled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 4.5 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February had 1 sale.  The was 1 sale for Apr12, 0 for Apr11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and 1 sale in March (0 sales for April).  There were no sales last year.  Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure.  The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County.  The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census.  The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area.  It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools.  One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area.  They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Friday, 01 June 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, April, 2012 indicated that there were 434 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.0 month supply of properties.  Sales in March were 77, up from 70 a year earlier.  Sales were up slightly compared to the prior month (75).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 172 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in April were way up this year v last year (47 v 37), but only slightly up compared to last month (44).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 110 listings for sale, and about 7.7 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now.  Sales were down compared to April, 2011 (16 v 17) and compared to last month (19).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 47 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 7.1 months.  March brought in 6 sales.  There was 1 last year and 6 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 39 listings, with about 13.0 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for April… 8 for April last year.  But, month to month sales were down (5 v 3).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 24 homes listed and approximately 14.4 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for April was down from last year’s 3 and from the 2 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 5 sales for the last 3 months was killed by the same 3 months from last year (11 sales).  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t. And four month ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 42 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 31.5 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 4 sales in the Feb-Apr period this year, and 7 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 2 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County.  It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County.  The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address.  It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum).  There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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A Perfect Storm for “Move-Up Buyers”?

Wednesday, 30 May 2012 08:00
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Interest rates are at historic lows… leading to incredible affordability.

Picture of the

Picture of the "Gingerbread House" in Essex, Connecticut, USA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Entry level inventories are at historic lows… leading to some price strength at base price levels.

Still some weakness at some “move-up” price levels… leading to great deals on homes at those price levels.

For a while now, many of us in the real estate world have been saying two things.  First, until jobs come back and people feel secure, real estate would struggle.  Second, the market wouldn’t come back until “move-up” buyers were in a position to make a move.

I don’t know that the majority of consumers are “comfortable” with their job situation, but when they are, the deals will start to dry up.  Those that get off the fence early will have the best choice of bargains… and inventories are actually dropping.

Move-up buyers had been somewhat locked into their homes with crappy resale values.  They couldn’t afford to move out and be in a position to put anything down on another house.  But now that there is a bit of stability in in the entry level, more of those buyers ARE able to sell and move up the market.

 

If you want to see if you are in a position to trade up, give me a call.  Lane Bailey 678-200-5895.

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