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Duluth, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 24 October 2011 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, September, 2011 indicated that there were 488 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.4 month supply of properties.  Sales in September were 66, Well up from 38 a year earlier.  But, sales weredown compared to the prior month (86).  Duluth has been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 186 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for September were up sharply this year v last year (46 v 13), but down compared to August, 2011 (51).  This is much better than Gwinnett county as a whole.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 137 listings for sale, and about 7.2 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were way down compared to September, 2010 (12v 9).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is doing better than average…

From $400k to $600k, there were 59 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 11.8 months.  September brought in 2 sales.  There were 13 last year and 5 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is NOT happening here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, and seemingly getting weaker.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 44 listings, with about 9.3 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for September… 0 for September last year.  Month to month sales slid (3 v 5).  After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County, and it has strengthened some this month.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 17.3 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sale recorded for September was tied by last year’s 0 and behind the 1 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but declining inventories had made the market look stronger until this month.

Above $1m, there were 39 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 13 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 9 sales in the Jul-Sep period this year, and the same for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2011

Friday, 21 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, September, 2011, indicate that there were 1412 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 5.5 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for September were at 163, so 243 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year. Coupled with the solid decrease in inventory, things are looking great. Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… slightly less than last month… but just slightly.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1194 listings, with about an 5.0 month supply of homes. Sales were way up from September 2010 (228 v 151). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 5.02 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.  I got one strong follow up… if we can keep it up for October, I will be a happy guy.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 188 listings for sale, and about 12.8 months of supply. Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again. With an strong at the segment down was, this one was weak, again.  The 11 sales for September, 2011 were down from the 12 from last year. Sales should have been closer to 25 units for September.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 24 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 9 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  July saw 5 sales and August saw none, so even though there were 3 sales for September, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June.  There were 0 sales in September, 2010.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 7.5 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were only 2 sales in the last three months.  The only saving grace is low inventory. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there is 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 17 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, September, 2011, indicates that there were 427 properties on the market (as of September 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.7 month supply of properties and 44 properties that closed (sold) in September.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (35) and a decrease from August, 2011 (48 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched up slightly, again.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 8.66 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 35 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased slightly from last month (37), and were up  slightly from last year (32).  We are sitting almost exactly where we were last year at this time.  That isn’t a terribly bad thing, although this segment needs to play catch up a little with some other areas of Gwinnett County.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 108 listings for sale, and about 12.5 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 9 sales compared to just 2 last year.  While it isn’t strong compared to some other areas, it is WAY better than last year at this time.  This segment really needs to get back into single digits… but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August or September.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 6 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00
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Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, August 2011

Friday, 07 October 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, August, 2011 indicate that there were 334 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.0 month supply of properties.  This year has been very strong so far… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much.  June saw 69 sales, well above the 47 for July and the 52 for last August, and with the decrease in listing inventory the Absorption Rate (AR) built more strength.  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post five strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 191 listings, with about 4.0 month supply.  Sales are up markedly from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (53 v 39).  For the last three months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers… it got a little more so, this month.  This looks like the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 104 listings for sale, and about 9.5 months of supply.  This segment isn’t as weak as it had been over the last several months, but it is surprisingly weak compared to the rest of the segments in the area, as well as the price level in other areas.  The 12 sales were a bump from last year’s 9 sales, as well as a good bump from last month’s 6 sales.  Of course, this segment has always seemed to lag.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 13.3 months.  The AR had been dropping for months, then shot WAY up in June.  It has been working down slowly since.  August’s 4 sales are up from 2 the month before and last year’s 3 sales… but the inventory decrease really helped.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories had decreased compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another each in May and June, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to 16.5 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County.  The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census.  The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area.  It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools.  One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area.  They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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