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Tag Archives: news

Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2011

Georgia Railroad 1026, an EMD GP7 -- on perman...

Image via Wikipedia

Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2011 indicated that there were 584 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 11 month supply of properties.  Months of Inventory has been increasing for the last couple of months, until last month.  Sales in January were 40, compared to 25 a year earlier.  Usually in January we see an uptick in inventory, which continues through the spring.  Inventory actually dropped this time.  If inventory stays flat or doesn’t move as high as previous trends, this could bode well for properties on the market.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 239 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 9.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate had gotten down into the high 4 month realm… and as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  In May, it was at 7.9 months and has been rising since, until last month.  Sales for December were up this year v last year (23 v 9).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 158 listings for sale, and about 11.6 months of supply.  Sales decreased from 11 in 2010 to 7 in 2011.  With sales down for November, up for December and down for January, there is no clear trend.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again.

 

From $400k to $600k, there were 54 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 7.7 months.  This is one of the strongest segments in Gwinnett County.  Of course, this is on the heels of a weak December and flat November.  Sales were strong this year v last year (6 v 3).

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 50 listings, with about 13.6 months of supply.  Sales were 4 for January… just 1 for this month last year.  Month to month sales were flat, but at least it is a much higher level than last year.  If listings stay relatively low, this segment could show a great improvement.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 28 homes listed and approximately 16.8 months of inventory on the market.  Falling inventories and increased sales are fueling the increasingly favorable Absorption Rate (it was 67.5 months in February).  There were 5 sales in the last three months, this year.  Last year, there were 4 sales in the same period.  Over the summer, the Absorption Rate for this segment dropped as low as 14.3 months of inventory.

Above $1m, there were 55 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 55 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 3 sales in the Nov – Jan period this year, and 3 sales for the same time last year… but inventories have been dropping.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, January 2011

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lilburn, January, 2011, indicates that there are 414 properties on the market (as of January 31st). Overall, there is about a 12.3 month supply of properties. Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County. The Absorption Rates had been getting worse since August, but December clocked an improvement from November. January was back to the downward slide. But January is normally a rough looking month, since sales slow at the end of December and there are fewer closing scheduled for January. In March there were 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 276 listings, with about an 9.7 month supply. This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March, until October. Sales were drastically higher than January 2010 (26 v 18). The Absorption Rate is slightly better than last year, too (10 months of inventory in January, 2010).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 119 listings for sale, and about 23.8 months of supply. This segment has been quite weak for months. Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 in November didn’t help. Nine sales in January was HUGE. For comparison, in January, 2010 there were 4 sales. The strong sales in January pushed the Absorption Rate down substantially from 28.5 months, in December, 2010.

From $400k to $600k, there are 14 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 42 months. There were no sales in this segment in May, June, July, October or December this year. There were only 4 sales in August and September(combined). November had 1 sale (2 last year). Last summer was much stronger overall. With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference. The improvement is due solely to the reduction in listings.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. There has been one sale in the last five months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August). One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

old photo of peachtree street, atlanta, GA

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I love watching the news… but when they talk about the real estate market, I cringe.  I like to hear the national numbers, but I also know that they are just a framework for a smaller discussion.  Yep… a smaller discussion.

It matters what the overall market is doing, but it’s not nearly as important as what is happening in your neighborhood.  It matters what is happening in Georgia, and the Atlanta Metro market, but not nearly as much as what is happening in your specific city.  Real estate prices and demand react to specific local issues much more than to national trends.  In fact, the national trend is just a compilation of local and hyper-local trends.  What the national market does is create a headwind or a tailwind.  That’s about it.

Here locally, we look at things like…

  • changing employment statistics
  • companies relocating into or out of the area
  • school performance and trends
  • tax burdens
  • quality of local governmental services
  • proximity to recreation and entertainment
  • ease of movement (commuting, shopping, etc)

As we see these things change, we see the market move in one direction or another.  A prime example at the moment is the City of Atlanta schools issue.  It is possible that the Atlanta City Schools could lose their accreditation.  If that were to happen, it would drive down the price of most of the homes served by those schools.  The price would be driven down because there would be a lack of demand on the part of buyers, combined with an increase in supply as sellers seek to move to districts without the same problems.

Gwinnett County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Georgia, below the national average.  But there is also a tremendous overhead of foreclosure action.  We also have one of the highest performance school systems in the region… and reasonably low tax rates.

The market in Miami or Las Vegas doesn’t have an effect on what is happening in Georiga, much less what is going on with real estate in Gwinnett County.

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Terra Sol by Pulte near Lilburn

Pulte Homes logo

Image via Wikipedia

A few years ago this property was started.  One home was built, along with the future clubhouse.  The tennis courts were installed and the swimming pool was roughed in.  Some of the streets had been laid, and many of the homesites had been prepped.

And that is how the property had sat for the last several years.  It just wasn’t worth building out during the worst of the real estate meltdown.

Apparently that has changed now…  Pulte has begun construction on the project again.  The actually tore down the house that had been built onsite, cleaned up the entrance and begun building in more infrastructure.

It’s really nice to see activity on this project again.

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Gwinnett Homestretch Program

Ken Cook and I are working with Gwinnett Homstretch Down Payment Assistance.  As a buyer, you need to have $1000 going into the purchase, but Gwinnett Homestretch may contribute up to $7,500, if you qualify.  There are a few things to keep in mind:

  • It is paid as a 0% loan, which will be forgiven after 5 years of using the property as your principal residence.  In effect, that makes it a grant… there are no payments due during the 5 years.
  • You will be required to complete an 8-hour counseling class from a HUD approved Housing Counseling Agency.
  • Total household income must not exceed HUD lmits, based on household size.  Households range from 1-8 people.
    • 2 people – HUD max is $46,000
    • 4 people – HUD max is $57,450
    • There are different income maximums for other household sizes.
  • Investors are NOT eligible for this program.
  • The home MUST pass an inspection by Gwinnett County PRIOR to closing.
  • Purchase Price may NOT exceed $200,000.

There are other requirements, such as being able to qualify for a mortgage.  Contact Ken and I for details.

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We’d love to help you buy a home. There are great deals on the market right now, and interest rates are exceptional.

For more info, click here.  There are other Down Payment Assistance programs available around the Metro Atlanta area.

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