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Tag Archives: news

The WRONG Top ten List to be on…

Thursday, 20 January 2011 08:31
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Yahoo News recently published an article titled “The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers“.  (I know, I said 10… they say 8, but they mentioned that Colorado and South Carolina barely missed inclusion).

Georgia ranked #6…

I’ll cut to the chase and give you the list.  Check out the article for the details on each state…

  1. Michigan
  2. Nevada
  3. Arizona
  4. California
  5. Illinois
  6. Georgia
  7. Oregon
  8. Florida
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Georgia made it onto the list because of the following statistics…

  • 2010 Foreclosures: 3.25% (6th Worst)
  • Unemployment: 10% (9th Worst)
  • Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -82.29% (2nd Worst)

Of course, I want to put my spin on these things…

There is no getting around the foreclosures.  As a real estate agent, I see loads of them listed in the local MLS (Multiple Listing Service), as well as properties that are foreclosed, but not yet listed.  I also see the properties that are on their way to foreclosure… short sales, neglected homes, etc.  They are seriously impacting home values across the state.

selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from ...
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Unemployment is the big one.  As employment increases, pressure on the housing market decreases.  Simply put, buyers are reluctant to buy when they aren’t feeling secure in their employment future.  There are some rumblings that could bring an improvement to the employment rate… FedEx is building a new Distribution Center in Norcross (Gwinnett County) that will be bringing a good number of jobs to the area over the next 18 months (it is scheduled to open in Sept. 2012).  While the 200 people that will work in the facility will be largely from other FedEx facilities, there will be jobs from the construction of the 215,000sf facility.  There may be future jobs added as well.  Kia Motors has a production facility in the state that is expanding.  There are other companies, large and small, that are opening or expanding operations in Georgia, as well.

The decrease in building permits is another matter entirely.  I see it as a backward looking indicator.  I also see a decrease in construction starts as positive news for inventory already on the market.  And in the last couple of years, we have seen the inventories decrease by half…  If there is already an over-supply, more building won’t help that.  And we have an oversupply.

The bottom line, for me, is that the article contains a mixed bag for Georgia.  There is NO question that the market here has been damaged, but at the same time, there may be rays of hope hiding in the tunnel.

The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2010

Monday, 17 January 2011 08:12
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, December, 2010, indicate that there are 1594 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.9 month supply of properties. In 2009, sales for December jumped between November and December (166 to 175).  For 2010, December sales jumped to 176 from 153 in November.

For Lawrenceville Homes  Under $200k, there are 1347 listings, with about a 9.4 month supply of homes.  It is an anomaly right now among Gwinnett Market/Price segments.  The inventory went up for December, as did the number of months of inventory.  Sales were up slightly from December 2009 (152 v 149).  But, like other segments, sales were up significantly from last month (139 in November).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 208 listings for sale, and about 11.8 months of supply.  Like many segments, with sales up and listings down, the Absorption Rate improves.  It hasn’t been this strong all year.  With 23 sales in December, 2010, the 24 in December, 2009, compares well.  And it rocks compared to the 14 in November this year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 29 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 87 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  December had the first sale (1) since June, and only three in May and June (combined).  Those were the only sales in the segment this year.  However, there were two in December, 2009.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 30 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were only two sales since November, 2009 (One each, April and July).  The drop off in the number of listings is making the Absorption Rate look better.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 5 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There has only been one sale in this range in the last 2 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, December 2010

Saturday, 15 January 2011 08:07
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Sunrise in Lilburn
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Market stats for Lilburn, December, 2010, indicates that there are 379 properties on the market (as of December 31st). Overall, there is about a 10.9 month supply of properties.  Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County.  The Absorption Rates had been getting worse since August, but December clocked an improvement from 11.8 months of inventory in November.  In March there were 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 244 listings, with about an 8.0 month supply.  This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March, until October.  Sales were drastically higher than December 2009 (31 v 22).  Oddly, the Absorption Rate is exactly the same as a year ago.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 114 listings for sale, and about 28.5 months of supply. This segment has been quite weak for months.  Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 each on November and October didn’t help.  For comparison, in 2009 there were 18 sales in October, 9 in November and 7 in December.  The expected end of the tax credit last year started pushing sales down in Nov. 2009.  While the Absorption Rate got slightly better compared to last month, the change was marginal.

From $400k to $600k, there are 16 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 48 months. There  were no sales in this segment in May, June, July, October or December this year.  There were only 4 sales in August and September(combined). November had 1 sale (2 last year). Last summer was much stronger overall.  With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There has been one sale in the last five months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August).  One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise..

Thursday, 13 January 2011 08:56
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I was working over the market data for Gwinnett County, GA… outside of Atlanta.  And the numbers were a bit surprising.  They were good… Almost across the board…

Why am I not excited?  I want to be excited.  I want to shout to the world that Gwinnett County’s real estate market has turned.

But I’m skeptical…

Generally, December has to lowest number of listings that we are going to see throughout the year.  Seldom will we see an increase in listings… in fact, only in the high end (where listings are often on the market over a year) do we see around the same number of listings in December as in November or January.

But this year, there was a dramatic dip in November, related to October.  There was just as dramatic of an uptick for December , compared to November.

So, was November an anomaly or was December the odd duck?

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My honest guess is that December is the odd one out.  Looking at the last several month, it seems obvious.  Here are the sales percentages vs the same month in 2009. Keep in mind, this is after the tax credit expired.

  • August – Down 11.5%
  • September – Down 22.6%
  • October – Down 24.0%
  • November – Down 27.3%
  • December – Down 4.0%

Obviously, that is quite strong.  But is real?  It will take a while to figure out.  We’ll have a better idea in a month or so, when the January numbers solidify, but we will still be looking at an “unstimulated” market compared to the market last year which was paying a $8,000 Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers, and $6,500 for Existing Home Buyers.  So, it will be September or October before we really can compare 2010 numbers with 2011 numbers and see an honest comparison.

I’m Hopeful…

I certainly have reservations.  I am mentally preparing for a boomerang in January numbers.  But I remain hopeful.  I’m looking forward to the January reports, which will come out starting in mid-February.

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Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report… November, 2010

Monday, 10 January 2011 08:55
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Here are the final numbers for Gwinnett County Home sales for November, 2010.

At the end of November, 2010, there were 6,017 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As usual, we have a drop off in listings during the Holiday Season.  November listings were down from October.  December also showed a decrease.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 488 sales in November.  This was down from 716 sales for November, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 11.2 months of inventory, which has been steadily increasing since June (this isn’t an increase that is good).  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For November, it represented 3,943 homes listed.  There were 231 sales during that period.  So, active listings went up (bad) and sales were WAY down (very bad).  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 11 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more “market normal” June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for October were down from 496 in November, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, there were 1,537 listings county-wide.  The Absorption Rate, currently at about 15.5 months of inventory, has been rising since August.  And while sales are down, listings are down, too.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 69 for 2010 v 171 for 2009.  In effect, while there are less than half of the listings of the next lower market segment, there are barely more than a third of the sales.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there were 320 listings in Gwinnett County and 8 sales for November, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate had been basically dropping since March, 2010, but jumped up significantly based on weak sales in both October and November.  Currently it indicates about 45.7 months of inventory.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are abysmal v last year.  For November, 2009, there were 34 sales.

In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates 72 months of inventory.  That rate has been rising since July (it was 10 months, then).  But, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For November, there were 72 listings in this price range.  There was 1 sale… down from 9 in November, 2009.

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 49 active listings and 2 sales for November, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 82 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  But, there is an upward trend in the absorption rate… which isn’t good.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 96 listings and 1 sale for November, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 36 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year (when there were 3 sales…).  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and “one-offs”.

I’m looking forward to seeing the sales data for December soon.  It will take quite a while before we get out of comparing to numbers that were skewed by government subsidies and stimulus.

You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for November wasn’t very solid until the beginning of January.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute…

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