So, let’s get to the numbers and try to get a handle on what they mean.
At the end of October, 2010, there were 6,138 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA. As expected, there has been a general upward trend in the number of listings all year, but that was slowing… as expected, but bumped up this past month, which wasn’t expected. While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago. There were 553 sales in October. This was down from 767 sales for October, 2009. Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 10.8 months of inventory. Which has been steadily increasing since June (this isn’t an increase that is good). This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.
The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich. For August, it represented 3,885 homes listed. There were 435 sales during that period. Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 9.1 months. The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more “market normal” June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory. Year over year sales for October were down from 532 in October, 2009.
In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, there were 1,690 listings county-wide. The Absorption Rate, currently at about 13.7 months of inventory, has been rising since August. And while sales are down, listings are down more, which is driving the absorption rate down. Year over year sales were down significantly, 116 for 2010 v 208 for 2009. In effect, while there are about half of the listings of the next lower market segment, there are barely more than a quarter of the sales.
Between $400,000 and $600,000, there were 329 listings in Gwinnett County and 6 sales for October, 2010. Again, the Absorption Rate had been basically dropping since March, 2010, but jumped up significantly based on weak sales. Currently it indicates about 31.7 months of inventory. Inventories are down slightly, but sales are abysmal v last year. For October, 2009, there were 24 sales. I can only hope there are some sales that are very late going into the system
In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates 27.3 months of inventory. That rate has been rising since July (it was 10 months, then). But, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties. For October, there were 82 listings in this price range. There were 2 sales… down from 4 in October, 2009.
As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 49 active listings and 1 sale for October, 2010. This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 61 months of inventory. Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot. But, there is an upward trend in the absorption rate… which isn’t good.
On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 103 listings and 4 sales for October, 2010. Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping. For August there was about 26 months of inventory. Sales are up significantly from last year (when there were 0 sales…). Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down. Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and “one-offs”.
I’m looking forward to seeing the sales data for November soon.
You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half. The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize. So, the data for October wasn’t very solid until the beginning of December. I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute…
- Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
- Gwinnett County, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)
- Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
- Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
October and September sales were down v 2009 (42 v 57 and 43 v 55), but August was way up (52 v 43). Overall, the market isn’t terrible here, looking back.
