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Tag Archives: news

Big League Dreams another step closer to Lilburn…

Thursday, 28 October 2010 08:02
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Over on my LilburnDwellings blog a few weeks ago I wrote about Big League Dreams possibly coming to Lilburn, GA.  At that time, the city was thinking about spending $450,000 (refundable, according to the City) for a feasibility study from Big League Dreams regarding building a facility here in Lilburn.

Last week, the City approved the feasibility study based on a market study conducted by BLD.  According to the market study, Gwinnett is ripe for their type of facility.  However, there seem to be some problems that I see in the study… running counter to the goals of the facility.  The most glaring is that the City of Lilburn wants to bring people here to eat in our restaurants and stay in local hotels, but according to the study, the vast majority of users will be from within Gwinnett County.  Another item (that I didn’t see mentioned in the study) is that there aren’t many hotel rooms or a variety of restaurants within the city limits… where it would increase tax revenue.

There is more information here on the Gwinnett Daily Post.

I think that there needs to be a LOT more public input before the city commits to $20,000,000 for one of these facilities.  And I think that there need to be some studies done apart from BLD… they have little risk, they would build the facility, but the city would pay for it, then BLD operates it… and charges the city to do it.  Even if it falls radically short of expectations, BLD can still profit.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2010

Tuesday, 26 October 2010 08:06
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, September, 2010, indicate that there are 16309 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 9.8 month supply of properties, with sales weakening since June. Sales dropped off dramatically this year compared to last.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 1273 listings, with about a 8.6 month supply of homes. Sales accelerated through June, but then fell off as the tax credit was slated to end.  While inventories are down from just a couple of years ago, for the recent past, they are still high.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 292 listings for sale, and about 18.3 months of supply.  Sales have slowed dramatically, if unevenly, since June.  And sales were down compared to last year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 27 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 4½ years.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were no sales for July, August or September, and only three in the two preceding months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 12 listings, with about 36 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were only two sales since November, 2009 (One each, April and July).

Above $800k there are 5 homes listed and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There hasonly been one sale in this range in the last 24 months, according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2010

Monday, 25 October 2010 08:46
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Market stats for Lilburn, September, 2010, indicates that there are 443 properties on the market (as of September 30th). Overall, there is about a 9.8 month supply of properties.  Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County.  Absorption Rates had been improving since March, until September.  In fact, in March there was 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 273 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply.  This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March.  And, one other thing to keep in mind is that sales were strong compared to September 2009 (32 v 25).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 146 listings for sale, and about 19 months of supply. This segment has also been getting stronger each month since March, until this month.  There were only 2 sales in September 2010, compared to 11 last year.

From $400k to $600k, there are 20 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months. There was one more sale in September 2010 (1) v September 2009 (0) as this year, but there were no sales in this segment in May, June or July this year.  Last summer was much stronger overall.  With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference.

Above $600k, there are 4 listings, but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There has been one sale in the last three months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August).  One of the listings is above $800k, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Gwinnett County Schools Get $1M Scholarship

Tuesday, 19 October 2010 18:09
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It was announced today that the Gwinnett County Public School system was awarded a $1,000,000 scholarship grant from the Eli and Edythe Broad Foundation.  The $1,000,000 will go out as scholarships to needy students within the district.

Gwinnett took the top honors because of their high standards of performance for students regardless of race.  They beat out Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools in North Carolina, Montgomery County Public Schools in Maryland, and Socorro Independent School District and Ysleta Independent School District in El Paso, Texas, for the award.  The award is for districts that show the most gains in student performance and closing minority achievement gaps.

Something else that should be kept in mind is that the GCPS has done this on a budget that is quite austere compared to some other local districts, such as the City of Atlanta Schools.  GCPS spends under $9,000/student, yet achieves better results than the City of Atlanta, which spends over $12,000/student.

Another feat that GCPS should be proud of is that they have achieved a high school graduation rate of 84 percent and 90 percent of those graduates go on to college or other post-secondary training.

I’m not a huge fan of public education (I’d like to see vouchers), but it is obvious that the Gwinnett County Public School system is doing some things correctly… and that they would be able to compete if there were vouchers in the district.  In fact, I think that many parents in adjoining districts would try to get their children into GCPS if they had the opportunity.

And don’t forget that Lilburn, GA is home to two of the best performing groups of schools in the Gwinnett system, Parkview and Brookwood.  I happen to know of a few homes for sale in the area…  ;^ )

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Gwinnett County, GA, Market Report, August 2010

Tuesday, 12 October 2010 08:30
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You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for August wasn’t very solid until the beginning of October.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute…

So, let’s get to the numbers and try to get a handle on what they mean.

At the end of August, 2010, there were 6,473 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As expected, there has been a general upward trend in the number of listings all year, but that is slowing… again, as expected.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 617 sales in August.  This was down from 697 sales for August, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 9.7 months of inventory.  Which shows an increase since June.  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For August, it represented 4,022 homes listed.  There were 436 sales during that period.  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 8.8 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more normal June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for August were down from 487 in August, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, things are different.  There were 1,838 listings county-wide.  Oddly, the Absorption Rate, currently at about 11.1 months of inventory, has been dropping since March.  In most other segments it has been rising… getting worse.  And while sales are down, listings are down more, which is driving the absorption rate down.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 141 for 2010 v 172 for 2009.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there are 354 listings in Gwinnett County and 25 sales for August, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate has been basically dropping since March, 2010.  Currently it indicates about 23 months of inventory.  This time it is a result of strong sales.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are steady v last year.  For August, 2009, there were 27 sales.  While 23 months of inventory isn’t anything to bank on, at least it is dropping.

Here is a real anomaly.  In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates only 10 months of inventory.  That rate has been dropping since February.  In fact, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For August, there were 97 listings in this price range.  There were 7 sales… up from 6 in August, 2009.  Honestly, I was really surprised to see these numbers at this level…

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 54 active listings and 3 sales for August, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 45 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  Sales may be rebounding here, though.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 108 listings and 5 sales for August, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 25 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year.  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and “one-offs”.

I’m looking forward to seeing the sales data for September soon.

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