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Tag Archives: real estate

HUGE Change Coming to FHA Loans…

Friday, 15 February 2013 07:00
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On June 3rd, 2013, there will be a HUGE change to FHA loans.  The Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) will become permanent for those that put less than 10% down.  This will cost borrowers tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.

Let’s say that you buy a home valued at $225,000.  If you put 5% down, that would be $11,250.  In addition to that, you’d pay an upfront fee of about 1.75% of the loan amount.  The monthly MIP would be around $200/mo.  Traditionally, as the loan balanced passed below 78% of the purchase price, the MIP would be removed from the loan payment.  Depending on the down payment, this would happen around 5-10 years into the 30 year loan.  By the time it’s all said and done, you might spend an extra $50,000 or more on MIP with the change.  ($50k is based on 20 years at $200/mo.)

For files open PRIOR to June 3rd, they should be eligible for MIP expiration.  If you are looking at a house, and about ready to pull the trigger, delaying could cost you upwards of $50k…

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2012

Thursday, 14 February 2013 14:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, October, 2012, indicate that there were 248 properties on the market, down 4 from last month.  Overall, there was about an 4.3 month supply of properties and 52 properties that closed (sold) in October.  It was a decrease from last year’s sales (60) and a decrease from September (58 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down very slightly.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 4.28 months of inventory, it is reasonably strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 170 listings, with about an 3.5 month supply with 44 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased a bit from last month (45), but well down from last year (53).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn.  At 3.5 months of inventory, with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 69 listings for sale, and about 8.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again.  But it would be hard to follow up July. There were 7 sales compared to 12 last month and 7 last year.  Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 5 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 3.75 months.  There was 1 sale in October.  Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.  To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12).  If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.  Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Wednesday, 13 February 2013 12:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, October, 2012 indicate that there were 169 properties on the market, down 3 from last month.  Overall, there is about a 3.1 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  October saw 43 sales, on par compared to the 53 for September, but well under the 58 for October last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 99 listings, with about 2.6 month supply.  Sales are down from last month and down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (30 v 46 in Oct11 & 43 Sep12).  For the last eleven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At well under a 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 54 listings for sale, and about 4.6 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months.  But, the 11 sales was up from last year’s 9 sales, and was a little over last month’s 10 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I’m still waiting for this segment to stop bouncing around so much.

From $400k to $600k, there were 14 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 42 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  October’s 1 sale was up from the 0 last month and down from last year’s 3 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term.  In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 3.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. February had 1 sale. The was 1 sale for Oct12, 0 for Sep12 and 0 for Oct11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 0 home listed on the market and 0 sales in October. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, October 2012

Tuesday, 12 February 2013 13:00
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Market stats for Duluth, October, 2012 indicated that there were 323 properties on the market, down 18 from last month.  Overall, there was about a 4.1 month supply of properties.  Sales in October were 81, way up from 62 a year earlier.  Sales were down compared to the prior month (89).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months.  Good, but not pack leading at the moment.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 108 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.4 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for last October, was 3.6.  Sales in October were slightly up this year v last year (49 v 44), also up compared to last month (47).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is quite a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 99 listings for sale, and about 5.6 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again.  Sales were up compared to October, 2011 (22 v 12) and compared to last month (17).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories.  It is still a slight Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 35 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 5.0 months.  October brought in 2 sales.  There were 3 last year and 8 last month.  Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level.  Usually we see the A/R soften as we move up in price, but that isn’t happening here.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 29 listings, with about 5.8 months of supply.  Sales were 4 for October… 3 for last year. And month to month sales were way down (4 v 9).  Last month was good, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 18 homes listed and approximately 9.0 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale for October rocked the 0 last year, but was blown out by the 5 last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 6 sales for the last 3 months killed the same 3 months from last year (1 sales). And nine months ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 34 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 14.6 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 7 sales in the Aug-Oct period this year, and 6 for the same time last year.  We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but almost hit it this month with 3 sales.  Last month there were 3 sales and last year there were 0 for October.

 

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2012

Monday, 11 February 2013 12:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, October, 2012, indicate that there were 794 properties on the market, down 42 from last month.  Overall, there was about a 3.0 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for October were at 263, so 247 sales was a decrease, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 234.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 637 listings, with about a 2.7 month supply of homes.  Sales were down from October, 2011 (226 v 247), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were over 1100 listings v just over 600 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 2.66 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were up from 218 in September.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 135 listings for sale, and about 6.8 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side.  The 18 sales for October, 2012 edged the 15 from last year, but and passed the 13 sales last month.  But, we were close to Balanced Market territory here, but have slipped back to Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are 14 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 4.7 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 2 sales for October, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 33 four months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was 1 sale in October. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012 and 1 in May.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July, but none in August. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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